Eighteenth-Century International Trade Statistics

Abstract

Revue de l'OFCE OFCE L'Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques est un organisme indépendant de prévision, de recherche et d'évaluation des politiques publiques. Créé par une convention passée entre l'État et la Fondation nationale des sciences politiques approuvée par le décret n° 81.175 du 11 février 1981, l'OFCE regroupe plus de 40 chercheurs (es) français et étrangers. « Mettre au service du débat public en économie les fruits de la rigueur scientifique et de l'indépendance universitaire », telle est la mission que l'OFCE remplit en conduisant des travaux théoriques et empiriques, en participant aux réseaux scientifiques internationaux, en assurant une présence régulière dans les médias et en coopérant étroitement avec les pouvoirs publics français et européens. Philippe Weil a présidé l'OFCE de 2011 à 2013, à la suite de Jean-Paul Fitoussi, qui a succédé en 1989 au fondateur de l'OFCE, Jean-Marcel Jeanneney. Depuis 2014, Xavier Ragot préside l'OFCE. Il est assisté d'un conseil scientifique qui délibère sur l'orientation de ses travaux et l'utilisation des moyens.

Analysis of Bilateral Trade Flow and Machine Learning Algorithms for GDP Forecasting

“…International trade plays an important role in a wage-based economy. International trade data provide insights into global relationships between countries as well as information on the relationship between local and regional economies [14]. Statistical data confirm that trade has continued to support economic growth and development, helping to reduce poverty around the world.…”

Exploring trade globalization in the long run: The RICardo project

“…Furthermore, entry into another jurisdiction was more conspicuous and therefore easier to record in the case a transhipment was necessary, such as in harbours (Clark 1938, xi). But the systematic compilation and (later) publication of foreign trade statistics by state agencies was not organised before the end of the seventeenth century (Charles and Daudin 2015). In England, concomitant with the creation of the Lords of Trade, an Office of the Inspector General of Imports and Exports was set up in 1696 (Clark 1938, 3-4).…”

“…Trade statistics are government statistics that originate from customs declarations about the quantity and/or the value or unit price of the merchandises that enter and exit the customs territory (the customs territory does not necessarily correspond to the 'national' or political territory of the entity). The customs declarations are sent to a central statistical office whose function is to evaluate, classify and publish national trade statistics (Charles and Daudin 2015). The data contained in these publications are RICardo database's raw material.…”

A Machine-Learning-Based Model for Forecasting Medical Device Foreign Trade

“…However, the approaches presented in these reports are usually based on simple statistical methods such as correlation, and reveal estimates far from the values actually achieved [1,2]. Exports and imports of all countries are available in the Trade Map database [3] and these statistics play an important role to understand the bilateral relationships between the countries, economic development and globalization [4]. In an analysis based on statistical methods such as only correlation, it is more difficult to take into account the parameters originating from the internal dynamics of the sectors.…”