Eficacia de las vacunas contra el SARS-CoV-2 en México y el mundo

Camarillo-Nava, Víctor M.; López, Diego Pérez; Rojas, Ezequiel

doi:10.22201/fm.14058871p.2021.4.80601

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…The proportion of vaccinated people p during that period is approximated from official communications of the Mexican government [16]. On the other hand, we consider the total number of vaccines applied until February 7, 2022 [16], and the reported efficacy of the vaccines used in Mexico [17] to calculate the weighted vaccine efficacy ( σ ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A methodology to generate epidemic scenarios for emerging infectious diseases based on the use of key calendar events

Acuña-Zegarra

Santana-Cibrian

Hernandez-Vela

et al. 2022

Preprint

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This work presents a methodology to recreate the observed dynamics of emerging infectious diseases and to generate short-term forecasts for their evolution based on superspreading events occurring on key calendar dates. The method is illustrated by the COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in Mexico and Peru up to January 31, 2022. We also produce scenarios obtained through the estimation of a time-dependent contact rate, with the main assumption that the dynamic of the disease is determined by the mobility and social activity of the population during holidays and other important calendar dates. First, historical changes in the effective contact rate on predetermined dates are estimated. Then, this information is used to forecast scenarios under the assumption that the trends of the effective contact rate observed in the past will be similar on the same but future key calendar dates. All other conditions are assumed to remain constant in the time scale of the projections. One of the main features of the methodology is that it avoids the necessity of fixing values of the dynamic parameters for the whole prediction period. Results show that considering the key dates as reference information is useful to recreate the different outbreaks, slow or fast-growing, that an epidemic can present and, in most cases, make good short-term predictions.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A methodology to generate epidemic scenarios for emerging infectious diseases based on the use of key calendar events

Acuña-Zegarra

Santana-Cibrian

Hernandez-Vela

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The proportion of vaccinated people p during that period is approximated from official communications of the Mexican government [14]. On the other hand, we consider the total number of vaccines applied until June 16, 2021 [14], and the reported efficacy of the vaccines used in Mexico [8] to calculate the weighted vaccine efficacy (σ).…”

Section: Covid-19 Dynamics In Mexicomentioning

confidence: 99%

A retrospective analysis of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions for Mexico and Peru: a modeling study

Acuña-Zegarra

Santana-Cibrian

Hernandez-Vela

et al. 2022

Preprint

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We model the observed dynamics of COVID-19 in Mexico and Peru and explore the impact of hypothetical non-pharmaceutical interventions applied on key days of civic, religious, or political nature that increased contacts and transmission events. Using as a baseline the observed epidemic curve, we apply hypothetical reductions in the contact rates during the first year of the pandemic: i) near the beginning, ii) at the beginning of the second outbreak, and iii) end of the year. The effects of the interventions are different for Mexico and Peru but underlie the fact that strong early interventions do reduce the prevalence and, in general, allow for an epidemic evolution of relatively lower prevalence than interventions applied once the epidemic is underway. We provide evidence that key calendar days are good approximations of times when contact rates change and, therefore, are efficient periods for effective interventions particularly in places with low testing and lack of contact tracing. This has helped us to recreate different outbreaks of the COVID-19 disease dynamics in Mexico and Peru and explore the impact of hypothetical interventions that reduce the contact rate.

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A retrospective analysis of COVID-19 dynamics in Mexico and Peru: Studying hypothetical changes in the contact rate

Acuña-Zegarra,

Santana-Cibrian,

Hernandez-Vela

et al. 2024

Contemporary Mathematics

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The COVID-19 pandemic has left many open questions for decision-makers. One of them is knowing the counter-factual effect that the implementation of different mitigation strategies to the ones actually used could have caused. This knowledge would allow to contemplate alternative strategies to deal with future infectious disease emergency. Motivated by the above, we model the observed COVID-19 dynamics for Mexico and Peru and explore the impact of implementing hypothetical stricter mitigation strategies on key days of civic, religious, or political character, that could alter contact and transmission intensities. We explore this impact through hypothetical contact rate reductions during the first year of the pandemic but at different times: i) near its beginning, ii) at the beginning of the second outbreak, and iii) end of the year. The effects of interventions are different for Mexico and Peru, but, in general, they do reduce the cumulative number of cases and deaths. Nonetheless, this study underlines the fact that the time and duration of interventions are important factors to obtain better reductions in prevalence. We also provide evidence that key calendar days are good change points for contact rates and, therefore, may be useful to define strategic time periods for effective interventions, particularly in countries with low testing and lack of contact tracing. We recreate different outbreaks of the COVID-19 disease dynamics in Mexico and Peru and explore the impact of hypothetical interventions that further reduce the contact rate.

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Eficacia de las vacunas contra el SARS-CoV-2 en México y el mundo

Cited by 4 publications

References 6 publications

A methodology to generate epidemic scenarios for emerging infectious diseases based on the use of key calendar events

A methodology to generate epidemic scenarios for emerging infectious diseases based on the use of key calendar events

A retrospective analysis of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions for Mexico and Peru: a modeling study

A retrospective analysis of COVID-19 dynamics in Mexico and Peru: Studying hypothetical changes in the contact rate

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