Efforts going to the dogs? Evaluating attempts to re‐introduce endangered wild dogs in South Africa

Abstract

Summary 1.We evaluated one of the most extensive efforts to date to re-introduce an endangered species: attempts to establish an actively managed meta-population of African wild dogs Lycaon pictus in South Africa. 2. Using an information-theoretic approach, known-fate modelling in program mark was employed to estimate the survival of re-introduced wild dogs and their offspring, and to model covariate effects relative to survival. Multiple a priori hypotheses on correlates of re-introduction success were tested (collated from extensive individual experiences) using different re-introduction attempts as natural quasi experiments. 3. Survival analyses revealed that the determinants of re-introduction success can be reduced to two factors relevant for management, suggesting that wild dog re-introductions should be attempted with socially integrated animals that are released into securely fenced areas, unless measures are implemented to mitigate human-related mortalities outside protected areas. 4. Synthesis and application. This study illustrates that monitoring and evaluation of conservation efforts, complimented with expert knowledge, forms the foundation of informed decision-making to underpin management recommendations with scientific evidence, particularly if the proposed actions are controversial.

The Demography and Dynamics of an Expanding, Managed African Wild Dog Metapopulation

“…After 2004, no subpopulation comprised more than 38% of the total metapopulation; therefore, even though small populations are more susceptible to catastrophic events, catastrophic mortality at the subpopulation level was unlikely to have major impacts at the metapopulation level (cf. Gusset et al, 2008. This is one of the benefits of spreading risk across several isolated populations (Shafer, 2001).…”

Practical Considerations for the Reintroduction of Large, Terrestrial,Mammalian Predators Based on Reintroductions to South Africa's Eastern Cape Province

“…For large carnivores this is less likely than for other species, as prey availability is more important than the vegetation characteristics of a site [42,53,54]. Hence, if there is suitable prey available [23,[55][56][57][58], adequate refuges for competitively-inferior predators to escape persecution and kleptoparasitism from larger predators [59] and measures to alleviate human -wildlife conflict [15], then all large predator reintroductions are likely to be successful. Each of the sites in the Eastern Cape has properly reserved habitat and adequate food availability.…”

“…The success of reintroductions in South Africa is largely due to fencing [15], which minimises negative humanwildlife interactions and provides assured ownership of valuable wildlife capital. In an ideal world, fencing conservation areas would be unnecessary and wildlife could roam wherever it chose, however most conservation areas worldwide today are natural islands in a matrix of disturbed environments [48].…”

“…Ideally, this would be objectively assessed via statistical analysis (e.g., [15]). The short time frame since the reintroductions began in the Eastern Cape, and the small number of sites and species reintroduced restricted such analysis, particularly given Harrell's [16] 'rule of thumb' for regression models that a maximum of n/10 explanatory variables can be used where n is the number of observations (in this case 11 sites) [17].…”

Sampling error in non-invasive genetic analyses of an endangered social carnivore

“…The African wild dogs of KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), South Africa originated from ongoing reintroduction efforts initiated in the 1980s (see Gusset et al 2008) and currently comprise eight packs distributed across three protected areas. This is one of the most endangered (Woodroffe et al 1997) and socially complex species in Africa (Estes and Goddard 1967).…”