Efficient uncertainty quantification method applied to structural fire engineering computations

Gernay, Thomas; Coile, Ruben Van; Khorasani, Negar Elhami; Hopkin, Danny

doi:10.1016/j.engstruct.2019.01.002

Cited by 24 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…More computationally efficient, but approximate, methods exist for assessing the distribution of Pmax,num, e.g. Van Coile et al 17 as applied in Gernay et al 14 . max max, R num P K P  (5) As both Pmax and PE are described by a lognormal distribution, Pf,fi is directly given by Equation ( 6), with Φ the standard normal cumulative distribution function.…”

Section: Assessment Methods 1: Full Probabilistic Analysis -Direct Calculation Of Probabilitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The model uncertainty for the resistance effect is considered as a conservative evaluation based on expert judgement, considering ambient design model uncertainties. Gernay et al 14 The performance criterion of the column maintaining stability is associated with the limit state function of Equation ( 1), where Pmax is the load bearing capacity of the column and PE is the total axial load.…”

Section: Generalmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Demonstrating adequate safety for a concrete column exposed to fire, using probabilistic methods

et al. 2020

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Demonstrating adequate safety for exceptional designs and new design applications requires an explicit evaluation of the safety level, considering the uncertainties associated with the design. The recently published PD 7974-7:2019 provides five routes to demonstrating adequate safety through probabilistic methods but does not include worked examples. The case study in this paper presents three state-of-the-art approaches for demonstrating achievement of an absolute safety target (acceptance concept 'AC3' in PD 7974-7:2019) for a concrete column in an office building with stringent reliability requirements. The case study shows how fragility curves listed by, for example, industry organizations can support probabilistic approaches and a more comprehensive understanding of design performance.

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Section: Assessment Methods 1: Full Probabilistic Analysis -Direct Calculation Of Probabilitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Generalmentioning

confidence: 99%

Demonstrating adequate safety for a concrete column exposed to fire, using probabilistic methods

et al. 2020

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“…In a single deterministic analysis, δ and σ are sufficient to postulate the prediction uncertainty [45]. In probabilistic simulations, the output is not a single value but distribution, and one cannot know in advance how the model uncertainty propagates [47,48]. The methods necessary for the management of such uncertainty propagation are lacking [41].…”

Section: Uncertainty Propagationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meta-model based stochastic simulation of fire barrier cold-side temperature

Paudel

Hostikka

2020

Fire Safety Journal

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“…To demonstrate adequate structural fire safety, whether for developing more uniform guidance or for designing exceptional structures, the risk profile for the structures should explicitly be considered. When evaluating the risk profile, all the influential conditions of possible fires and their probabilities, together with the uncertainty associated with structural system, are taken into account [1][2]. Acknowledging this, there has recently been an increase in the use of probabilistic methodologies for structural fire design.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Out of the available probabilistic approaches, the development of fragility curves has been found to be popular among researchers as it is conceptually easy to understand and allows faster design iterations [5]. Although available probabilistic methodologies, such as the development of fire fragility curves, can contribute to enable a safe and reliable design for fire exposed structures [2][3][4][5][6], their implementation has been found arduous and computationally challenging. The commonly large computational demand can mainly be attributed to the multi-step calculation procedure required for fire analysis of structures, together with the need for a large number of structural evaluations for probabilistic estimations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Generalized fragility curves for concrete columns exposed to fire through surrogate modelling

Chaudhary¹,

Jovanović²,

Gernay³

et al. 2020

Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Structures in Fire (SiF2020)

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Common structural fire design relies on recommendations from design codes, or (a single or small set of) more advanced numerical analyses. When applying such procedures to the design of structures under normal loading conditions, adequate safety is ensured through calibrated safety factors and ample experience with structural failures. This is however not the case when considering accidental fire loading, where the stochasticity in the structural fire behaviour is rarely fully acknowledged. Therefore, a significant interest in the use of probabilistic approaches to evaluate structural fire performance, which take into account the uncertainty associated with model parameters, can be observed among researchers, with a special focus on the development of fragility curves. The calculation of fragility curves is, however, a laborious task, demanding huge computational expense, mainly attributed to the adoption of advanced calculation procedures and the need for a large number of model evaluations. The present study contributes to addressing the limitations imposed by these computational requirements through the development of surrogate models for fire exposed structural members. To achieve this, a framework for carrying out probabilistic studies of structures under fire through the use of surrogate modelling is presented. The framework is applied to a concrete column subjected to a standard fire and proves efficiency and accurateness for the selected simple example. Future studies will investigate the applicability of the framework to structural assemblies under physically-based fires.

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Efficient uncertainty quantification method applied to structural fire engineering computations

Cited by 24 publications

References 23 publications

Demonstrating adequate safety for a concrete column exposed to fire, using probabilistic methods

Demonstrating adequate safety for a concrete column exposed to fire, using probabilistic methods

Meta-model based stochastic simulation of fire barrier cold-side temperature

Generalized fragility curves for concrete columns exposed to fire through surrogate modelling

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