Efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo for combined Subset Simulation and nonlinear finite element analysis

Green, David K. E.

doi:10.1016/j.cma.2016.10.012

Cited by 29 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…We calculated the binomial log-likelihood to compare the model-based age- and HPV type-specific curves of prevalence with the observed outcomes and we selected the 10 model-generated curves that fittest best. Although this classical approach is less efficient than applying a Markov Chain Monte Carlo calibration 21 , the accuracy and validity of the final model parameters are the same.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Concomitant human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and screening for elimination of HPV and cervical cancer

Arroyo Mühr,

Gini,

Yilmaz

et al. 2024

Nat Commun

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HPV vaccination with concomitant HPV-based screening of young women has been proposed for faster cervical cancer elimination. We describe the baseline results of a population-based trial of this strategy to reduce the incidence of HPV. All 89,547 women born 1994-1999 and resident in the capital region of Sweden were personally invited to concomitant HPV vaccination and HPV screening with 26,125 women (29.2%) enrolled between 2021-05-03 and 2022-12-31. Baseline HPV genotyping of cervical samples from the study participants finds, compared to pre-vaccination prevalences, a strong decline of HPV16 and 18 in birth cohorts previously offered vaccination, some decline for cross-protected HPV types but no decline for HPV types not targeted by vaccines. Our dynamic transmission modelling predicts that the trial could reduce the incidence of high-risk HPV infections among the 1994-1998 cohorts by 62-64% in 3 years. Baseline results are prevalences of HPV infection, validated transmission model projections, and power estimates for evaluating HPV incidence reductions at follow-up (+/−0.1% with 99.9% confidence). In conclusion, concomitant HPV vaccination and HPV screening appears to be a realistic option for faster cervical cancer elimination. Clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT04910802; EudraCT number: 2020-001169-34.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Concomitant human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and screening for elimination of HPV and cervical cancer

Arroyo Mühr,

Gini,

Yilmaz

et al. 2024

Nat Commun

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“…There are numerous ACFs to describe the degree of correlation between two points irrespective of their 7 global coordinate [30,31]. The most applied ACF used to illustrate the spatial variability of soil characteristics is the Exponential Auto-Correlation Function (E-ACF) [35][36][37], which is given by:…”

Section: Random Field Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

Reliability analysis of stability against piping and sliding in diversion dams, considering four cutoff wall configurations

Hekmatzadeh

Zarei

Johari

et al. 2018

Computers and Geotechnics

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The stability against piping and sliding, which is subject to numerous sources of uncertainty, is of great importance in the design of diversion dams. In this study, the performance of four cutoff wall configurations, including a single wall and two walls with half the length of the single wall, was evaluated stochastically using the random finite element method. The Cholesky decomposition technique in conjunction with three types of Auto-Correlation Function (ACF) was employed to generate numerous random fields. The results indicate that the probabilities of failure related to different cutoff wall configurations are similar, considering isotropic hydraulic conductivity. However, there are noticeable differences between the probabilities of failure of these configurations in anisotropic situations. Moreover, the use of a single cutoff wall on the upstream face of an impervious blanket provides the lowest probability of failure for piping. In addition, the exponential ACF ends up with greater exit hydraulic gradients than the second-order Markov and binary noise ACFs. In addition, the sliding stability of the ordinary and earthquake load combinations was examined stochastically using random field theory and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). The probability of failure appears to increase with an increase in the autocorrelation distance.

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“…The reliability index was introduced because its value is easier for people to compare than the probability of failure, which in the case of civil engineering is very low. There are numerous methods that are used to estimate the reliability index, including approximation methods (FORM, SORM) [2][3][4], simulation methods (Monte Carlo, Subset Simulation) [5][6][7], Stochastic Finite Element Method (SFEM) [8][9][10], Response Surface Method [11][12][13] or Artificial Neural Networks [14][15][16]. The biggest problem with most of mentioned method is that they are appropriate for analysis of individual limit state functions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The safety of steel space truss under fire conditions according to the system reliability analysis.

Kubicka

2023

Preprint

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The proposed paper focuses on the method of estimating the reliability index β (as a safety measure) of the spatial steel truss under fire conditions. The whole procedure connected with computation of temperatures of elements, effects of actions and bearing capacities is realised in author-designed C++ code, prepared according to Eurocode. The probabilistic model includes mechanical properties of steel (yield strength), geometrical characteristics of bar cross-sections and effect of actions. In the next step, the stiffness matrix spectral analysis is realized. The code prepared by the author is being developed to be useful for spatial structures. The program realization leads to finding so called cut-sets, i.e. possible ways of transforming the structure into mechanism. These sets of elements create a logical model, which will be introduced to the SYSREL module, which is part of STRUREL program. This is the software that was created in Munich University of Technology to solve reliability problems. SYSREL module is dedicated to conduct system reliability analysis connected with different reliability methods including, among others, the FORM,SORM, Monte Carlo and Subset Simulation method.

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Efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo for combined Subset Simulation and nonlinear finite element analysis

Cited by 29 publications

References 38 publications

Concomitant human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and screening for elimination of HPV and cervical cancer

Concomitant human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and screening for elimination of HPV and cervical cancer

Reliability analysis of stability against piping and sliding in diversion dams, considering four cutoff wall configurations

The safety of steel space truss under fire conditions according to the system reliability analysis.

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