Efficiency Analysis of Speed Managed Descent in the Presence of Wind Prediction Error

Abstract

Efficient flight operations are crucial for the sustainable development of aviation. Continuous descent is a potential solution in a terminal airspace. At present, descent is evaluated based on the length or duration of level flight segments only. Typically, modern flight management systems calculate optimal descent profiles with level segments added only for necessary deceleration. If no wind disturbance is present, the aircraft can follow the path calculated and achieve the optimal descent. In practice, however, differences between the predicted and actual wind require changes to the descent profile such as adding thrust, drag, or flying additional level segments. This research analyses different descent control strategies and investigates their effects on fuel burn, flight time and path deviation. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to account for various wind conditions. Results show that even strategies with level segments increased by an average of 22% can result in lower fuel burn. Therefore, it is concluded that level segments by themselves are not a sufficient metric for descent efficiency and a strategy for lower fuel burn descents is proposed.

Fuel Efficiency Prediction Model to Enhance the Fuel Efficiency and Reduce the Carbon Emissions

“…5) Andreeva-Mori and Uemura analyzed the optimal top of descent in respect to wind prediction error and fuel burn. 6,7) Wickramasinghe et al provided an in-depth quantitative evaluation on potential benefits achieved by performing flight trajectory optimization, considering the tradeoff between fuel consumption and flight time. 8) Harada et al quantitatively evaluated the accuracy of the base of aircraft data model by comparing calculated fuel flow and total fuel consumption with flight data.…”