Identification of Patients Who Will Not Achieve Seizure Remission
Within 5 Years on AEDs
Hughes DM, Bonnett LJ, Czanner G, Komárek A, Marson AG, García Fiñana M.
Neurology. 2018;91(22):e2035-e2044. doi:
10.1212/WNL.0000000000006564. Epub 2018 Nov 2. PMID: 30389894.Objective:To identify people with epilepsy who will not achieve a 12-month
seizure remission within 5 years of starting treatment.Methods:The Standard and New Antiepileptic Drug (SANAD) study is the largest
prospective study in patients with epilepsy to date. We applied a
recently developed multivariable approach to the SANAD data set that
takes into account not only baseline covariates describing a
patient’s history before diagnosis but also follow-up data as
predictor variables.Results:Changes in number of seizures and treatment history were the most
informative time-dependent predictors and were associated with
history of neurologic insult, epilepsy type, age at start of
treatment, sex, and having a first-degree relative with epilepsy.
Our model classified 95% of patients. Of those classified, 95% of
patients observed not to achieve remission at 5 years were correctly
classified (95% confidence interval [CI]: 89.5%-100%), with 51%
identified by 3 years and 90% within 4 years of follow-up.
Ninety-seven percent (95% CI: 93.3%-98.8%) of patients observed to
achieve a remission within 5 years were correctly classified. Of
those predicted not to achieve remission, 76% (95% CI: 58.5%-88.2%)
truly did not achieve remission (positive predictive value). The
predictive model achieved similar accuracy levels via external
validation in 2 independent United Kingdom-based data sets.Conclusion:Our approach generates up-to-date predictions of the patient’s risk
of not achieving seizure remission whenever new clinical information
becomes available that could influence patient counseling and
management decisions.