Influenza live viral challenges in humans are valuable models for testing the efficacy of vaccines and antiviral agents. Volunteers are treated with an investigational agent, and their clinical outcomes postchallenge are compared to those of placebo-treated volunteers. Despite using a common protocol, similar recruitment criteria, and similar doses of the same challenge strain, we noticed differences in disease severity outcomes between the placebo groups from different studies. We investigated whether these differences were significant and, if so, whether any pattern and its possible causes could be identified. We Influenza infection elicits a range of immune responses. One such response is the production of strain-specific neutralizing antibodies that confer immunity against infection by the same strain (1). As a result, a key volunteer exclusion criterion in challenge studies is the detection of preexisting neutralizing antibodies (hemagglutination inhibition [HAI], Ͼ10) to the challenge strain. Another such response is the generation of antiviral cellular immune responses. Despite existing evidence as to their protective role during infection (2-4), preexisting cellular immune responses to the challenge strain are not normally assessed during volunteer recruitment.We have developed a novel vaccine (FLU-v) that elicits broad influenza heterosubtypic cellular responses without inducing any significant antibody response (5-7). In humans, FLU-v was found to be safe and well tolerated and, in a live viral challenge study, to induce a vaccine-specific cellular response whose magnitude correlated with reductions in symptom score and viral shedding (7). No such correlations were seen in the placebo group, but we did notice that both viral shedding and symptom score postchallenge were much lower (50%) in our placebo group than those in the placebo group from a previous study. To establish the significance of these differences, we compared the placebo group outcomes of several other influenza live viral challenge studies. All these studies, although involving different placebo agents, were carried out by the same clinical group (Retroscreen Ltd.), using the same recruitment criteria, viral strain and dose, and method for determining postchallenge clinical and virological outcomes. This meta-analysis revealed an "experiment of nature" that we believe provides interesting insights in the potential of the cellular immune system for controlling influenza virus infection.
MATERIALS AND METHODSClinical trial data used for meta-analysis. The reported postchallenge clinical outcomes for the placebo group of four reported independent clinical trials (3, 7-9) and one previously unreported study (Retroscreen Ltd., personal communication) were used for the meta-analysis. The placebo agents used in the studies were different, but all the studies were carried out by the same clinical group (Retroscreen Ltd.) and were conducted according to a common challenge protocol (Fig. 1) that used the same well-defined recruitment criteria, vi...