Effects of visualizing uncertainty on decision-making in a target identification scenario

Riveiro, Maria; Helldin, Tove; Falkman, Göran; Lebram, Mikael

doi:10.1016/j.cag.2014.02.006

Cited by 34 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…Additionally, evidence suggests that experts (e.g., St. John et al 2000;Aerts et al 2003;Riveiro et al 2014) and non-experts (e.g., Morss et al 2010; Correll and Gleicher 2014) interpret probabilities well enough to inform decisions when given uncertainty information on topics such as military tactics, land use, air traffic control, voter preference, snowfall predictions, and payout expected by a fund. Even with unfamiliar hazards or information, risk judgments can improve when training is provided (e.g., McCloy et al 2007).…”

Section: B Past Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Visualizing Volcanic Ash Forecasts: Scientist and Stakeholder Decisions Using Different Graphical Representations and Conflicting Forecasts

Mulder

Lickiss

Harvey

et al. 2017

Weather, Climate, and Society

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During volcanic eruptions, Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres issue ash advisories for aviation showing the forecasted outermost extent of the ash cloud. During the 2010 Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull eruption, the Met Office produced supplementary forecasts of quantitative ash concentration, due to demand from airlines. Additionally, satellite retrievals of estimated volcanic ash concentration are now available. To test how these additional graphical representations of volcanic ash affect flight decisions, whether users infer uncertainty in graphical forecasts of volcanic ash, and how decisions are made when given conflicting forecasts, a survey was conducted of 25 delegates representing U.K. research and airline operations dealing with volcanic ash. Respondents were more risk seeking with safer flight paths and risk averse with riskier flight paths when given location and concentration forecasts compared to when given only the outermost extent of the ash. Respondents representing operations were more risk seeking than respondents representing research. Additionally, most respondents’ hand-drawn no-fly zones were larger than the areas of unsafe ash concentrations in the forecasts. This conservatism implies that respondents inferred uncertainty from the volcanic ash concentration forecasts. When given conflicting forecasts, respondents became more conservative than when given a single forecast. The respondents were also more risk seeking with high-risk flight paths and more risk averse with low-risk flight paths when given conflicting forecasts than when given a single forecast. The results show that concentration forecasts seem to reduce flight cancellations while maintaining safety. Open discussions with the respondents suggested that definitions of uncertainty may differ between research and operations.

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Section: B Past Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Visualizing Volcanic Ash Forecasts: Scientist and Stakeholder Decisions Using Different Graphical Representations and Conflicting Forecasts

Mulder

Lickiss

Harvey

et al. 2017

Weather, Climate, and Society

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“…Correspondingly, some research demonstrated the benefits of uncertainty visualization to human performance in decision, judgment, and estimation tasks (e.g., Andre & Cutler, 1998;Brolese & Huf, 2006;Finger & Bisantz, 2002;Riveiro, Helldin, Falkman, & Lebram, 2014; for a comprehensive review, see Bisantz, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of Visualization Training on Uncertain Spatial Trajectory Predictions

et al. 2018

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Objective: The goal of this study was to explore the ways in which visualizations influence the prediction of uncertain spatial trajectories (e.g., the unknown path of a downed aircraft or future path of a hurricane) and participant overconfidence in such prediction.Background: Previous research indicated that spatial predictions of uncertain trajectories are challenging and are often associated with overconfidence. Introducing a visualization aid during training may improve the understanding of uncertainty and reduce overconfidence.Method: Two experiments asked participants to predict the location of various trajectories at a future time. Mean and variance estimates were compared for participants who were provided with a visualization and those who were not.Results: In Experiment 1, participants exhibited less error in mean estimations when a linear visualization was present but performed worse than controls once the visualization was removed. Similar results were shown in Experiment 2, with a nonlinear visualization. However, in both experiments, participants who were provided with a visualization did not retain any advantage in their variance estimations once the visualization was removed.Conclusions: Visualizations may support spatial predictions under uncertainty, but they are associated with benefits and costs for the underlying knowledge being developed.Application: Visualizations have the potential to influence how people make spatial predictions in the presence of uncertainty. Properly designed and implemented visualizations may help mitigate the cognitive biases related to such predictions.

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“…If space-time decisionmakers are not informed about potential uncertainties inherent to maps, misleading, false, or at worst, life-threatening outcomes might result from the map-based decision making process. Therefore, data uncertainties should be communicated to decision-makers (Hope and Hunter, 2007), especially when they are made with limited time resources (Riveiro et al, 2014), and/or decision outcomes can have dramatic consequences (Ruginski et al, 2016). We thus wished to empirically study how data uncertainty visualized in maps might influence the process and outcomes of spatial decision making (Kübler et al, 2017), especially when made under time pressure in risky situations (Wilkening and Fabrikant, 2011).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

How are map-based decisions influenced by uncertainty visualization in risky and time-critical situations?

Korporaal¹,

Fabrikant

2019

Abstr. Int. Cartogr. Assoc.

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Extended Abstract:We then invited 34 participants (females: 18, males: 16; 27,7 yrs. on average) to our eye-tracking laboratory at the Geography Department of the University of Zurich for the controlled portion of the study. They were again recruited broadly, without any specific training or background relevant for the chosen multivariate decision making scenario. Participants were randomly assigned to the time-pressure group, and they did not differ in spatial ability, assessed with the paper-folding test (Ekstrom et al., 1976).

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Effects of visualizing uncertainty on decision-making in a target identification scenario

Cited by 34 publications

References 33 publications

Visualizing Volcanic Ash Forecasts: Scientist and Stakeholder Decisions Using Different Graphical Representations and Conflicting Forecasts

Visualizing Volcanic Ash Forecasts: Scientist and Stakeholder Decisions Using Different Graphical Representations and Conflicting Forecasts

Effect of Visualization Training on Uncertain Spatial Trajectory Predictions

How are map-based decisions influenced by uncertainty visualization in risky and time-critical situations?

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