Effects of urbanization and global climate change on regional climate in the Pearl River Delta and thermal comfort implications

Abstract

Urbanization and climate change are affecting regional climate; therefore, thermal comfort should be fully understood, especially from a public health perspective. We applied a climate model driven by a combination of land‐cover development and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to predict composite climatic adjustments in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) in China. Our findings showed that a 10% increase in urban land cover can cause a 0.11 K increase in surface temperature in PRD, and urban temperature will rise by 0.15–0.21 K because of global climate change alone. We found that urbanization has marginal effects on thermal comfort despite increasing surface temperature in PRD. Moreover, global climate change will increase the frequency at which temperatures exceed critical temperatures reported in the literature and the extreme heat stress level (95th percentile of baseline year). Our findings offer a scientific basis for understanding heat‐related health risk and climate change adaptation in urban areas.

Effect of Urbanization on Ozone and Resultant Health Effects in the Pearl River Delta Region of China

“…Even though urbanization has been proven to have a notable effect on urban climate (Cao et al, 2016;Chen et al, 2014;Chen et al, 2015;Cheng & Chan, 2012;Huff & Changnon, 1972;Inoue & Kimura, 2004;Jingyong et al, 2005;Kalnay & Cai, 2003;Kishtawal et al, 2010;Li et al, 2014Li et al, , 2015Li et al, , 2016Liao et al, 2015;Lin et al, 2007;Lo et al, 2007;Niyogi et al, 2011;Shem & Shepherd, 2009;Shi et al, 2008;Sun et al, 2016;Tayanc & Toros, 1997;Wang et al, 2007;Wang et al, 2019;Zhang et al, 2011;Zhou et al, 2004), the resultant annual and seasonal impacts on pollutant levels and atmospheric response to emissions have yet to be fully understood. A study conducted simulations to assess the urbanization effect on climate and air quality over eastern China in July from 2008 to 2012.…”

Can Terrestrial Water Storage Dynamics be Estimated From Climate Anomalies?

“…But this can only indicate the reliability of the model in recent decades because there are no available water use records before 2000 for the whole basin. Another reason, as was acknowledged in previous researches, is that the human‐induced land cover change and water stress could be partly reflected by the climatic variations, such as the increase of temperature and evapotranspiration, or decrease of precipitation (Kaufmann et al, ; Yongli Wang et al, ). Therefore, we can expect the good performance of the climate data‐driven model in modeling TWS dynamics in the Pearl River basin.…”

Supplementary material to "Characteristics of surface energy balance and atmospheric circulation during hot-and-polluted episodes and their synergistic relationships with urban heat islands over the Pearl River Delta region"

“…50th percentiles were selected based on a number of factors. The first factor was that the 50th percentile of temperature exceeds the critical temperature above which risks of health impact were significant (Chan et al, 2012;Wang et al, 2019). The air quality was considered adequate because the PM10 and O3 thresholds exceed the WHO acceptable annual and daily (Anon, 2006).…”