Effects of time-lagged meteorological variables on attributable risk of leishmaniasis in central region of Afghanistan

Adegboye, Majeed; Olumoh, Jamiu; Saffary, Timor; Elfaki, Faiz Ahmed Mohamed; Adegboye, Oyelola A.

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.401

Cited by 15 publications

(10 citation statements)

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“…Previous studies have linked malaria incidence to occupation, such as agriculture and forestry in Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Cambodia, and Indonesia [2,3,9,66]. A large proportion (40-50%) of Chittagong Hill Tract's population engages in agricultural activities [67], which could expose these populations to the vectors [33,61]. However, occupation could not explain our findings of a higher vulnerability of children and the elderly to malaria with rainfall.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 56%

“…It is very common in time-series analysis to use distributed lag models (DLMs) [32] or its generalization, distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) [21,31]. DLNM has been widely used to assess the association between meteorological variables and infectious diseases such as leishmaniasis [33], tuberculosis [34], pneumonia [35], and malaria [36][37][38][39][40]. Preliminary analysis based on Poisson generalized linear models indicated an overdispersion due to non-linear patterns and large variance; therefore, quasi-Poisson models were used.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Disparities in Risks of Malaria Associated with Climatic Variability among Women, Children and Elderly in the Chittagong Hill Tracts of Bangladesh

Emeto

Adegboye

Rumi

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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Malaria occurrence in the Chittagong Hill Tracts in Bangladesh varies by season and year, but this pattern is not well characterized. The role of environmental conditions on the occurrence of this vector-borne parasitic disease in the region is not fully understood. We extracted information on malaria patients recorded in the Upazila (sub-district) Health Complex patient registers of Rajasthali in Rangamati district of Bangladesh from February 2000 to November 2009. Weather data for the study area and period were obtained from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department. Non-linear and delayed effects of meteorological drivers, including temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall on the incidence of malaria, were investigated. We observed significant positive association between temperature and rainfall and malaria occurrence, revealing two peaks at 19 °C (logarithms of relative risks (logRR) = 4.3, 95% CI: 1.1–7.5) and 24.5 °C (logRR = 4.7, 95% CI: 1.8–7.6) for temperature and at 86 mm (logRR = 19.5, 95% CI: 11.7–27.3) and 284 mm (logRR = 17.6, 95% CI: 9.9–25.2) for rainfall. In sub-group analysis, women were at a much higher risk of developing malaria at increased temperatures. People over 50 years and children under 15 years were more susceptible to malaria at increased rainfall. The observed associations have policy implications. Further research is needed to expand these findings and direct resources to the vulnerable populations for malaria prevention and control in the Chittagong Hill Tracts of Bangladesh and the region with similar settings.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 56%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Disparities in Risks of Malaria Associated with Climatic Variability among Women, Children and Elderly in the Chittagong Hill Tracts of Bangladesh

Emeto

Adegboye

Rumi

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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“…applied generalize linear Poisson models in combination with autoregressive model to investigate the effect of weekly mean temperature and humidity on the incidence of mycoplasma pneumonia in Japan 23 , Adegboye et al . used a spatial time-series regression model to investigate the influence of temperature and rainfall on malaria and leishmaniosis in Afghanistan 24–26 , and Xiao et al . applied a distributed lag non-linear model to study the effects of multiple meteorological variables on monthly incidence of TB in Southwest China 27 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Delay effect and burden of weather-related tuberculosis cases in Rajshahi province, Bangladesh, 2007–2012

Kuddus

McBryde

Adegboye

2019

Sci Rep

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Tuberculosis (TB) is a potentially fatal infectious disease that continues to be a public health problem in Bangladesh. Each year in Bangladesh an estimated 70,000 people die of TB and 300,000 new cases are projected. It is important to understand the association between TB incidence and weather factors in Bangladesh in order to develop proper intervention programs. In this study, we examine the delayed effect of weather variables on TB occurrence and estimate the burden of the disease that can be attributed to weather factors. We used generalized linear Poisson regression models to investigate the association between weather factors and TB cases reported to the Bangladesh National TB control program between 2007 and 2012 in three known endemic districts of North-East Bangladesh. The associated risk of TB in the three districts increases with prolonged exposure to temperature and rainfall, and persisted at lag periods beyond 6 quarters. The association between humidity and TB is strong and immediate at low humidity, but the risk decreases with increasing lag. Using the optimum weather values corresponding to the lowest risk of infection, the risk of TB is highest at low temperature, low humidity and low rainfall. Measures of the risk attributable to weather variables revealed that weather-TB cases attributed to humidity is higher than that of temperature and rainfall in each of the three districts. Our results highlight the high linearity of temporal lagged effects and magnitudes of the burden attributable to temperature, humidity, and rainfall on TB endemics. The results can hopefully advise the Bangladesh National TB control program and act as a practical reference for the early warning of TB cases.

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“…Moreover, the survival of adult sandflies in temperatures lower than 15°C was not reported [31]. The direct effect of temperature was also reported in studies by Ramezankhani et al [18] and Adegboye et al in Afghanistan [30], and Ghatee et al [21] and Artun in Turkey [23]. Moreover, monthly cases were associated with the mean monthly temperature at a lag of five months (r=0.576) and with a monthly accumulated evaporation lag of five months (r=0.513) [17].…”

Section: Temperaturementioning

confidence: 83%

“…After evaluation, 45 full-text articles were removed, and 23 full-text articles met the eligibility criteria for the systematic review. Finally, after removing nine articles, 14 full-text articles were included in the systematic review (shown in Table 1) [1,6,9,11,12,[15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30]. Based on the findings, the effects of environmental factors on the incidence of CL in the Old World are discussed below.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

An investigation of the effects of environmental and ecologic factors on cutaneous leishmaniasis in the old world: a systematic review study

Mohammadbeigi

Khazaei

Heidari

et al. 2020

Reviews on Environmental Health

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ObjectivesLeishmaniasis is a neglected and widespread parasitic disease that can lead to serious health problems. The current review study aimed to synthesize the relationship between ecologic and environmental factors (e.g., weather conditions, climatology, temperature and topology) and the incidence of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in the Old World.ContentA systematic review was conducted based on English, and Persian articles published from 2015 to 2020 in PubMed/Medline, Science Direct, Web of Science and Google Scholar. Keywords used to search articles were leishmaniasis, environmental factors, weather condition, soil, temperature, land cover, ecologic* and topogr*. All articles were selected and assessed for eligibility according to the titles or abstracts. The quality screening process of articles was carried out by two independent authors. The selected articles were checked according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria.Summary and outlookA total of 827 relevant records in 2015–2020 were searched and after evaluating the articles, 23 articles met the eligibility criteria; finally, 14 full-text articles were included in the systematic review. Two different categories of ecologic/environmental factors (weather conditions, temperature, rainfall/precipitation and humidity) and land characteristics (land cover, slope, elevation and altitude, earthquake and cattle sheds) were the most important factors associated with CL incidence.ConclusionsTemperature and rainfall play an important role in the seasonal cycle of CL as many CL cases occurred in arid and semiarid areas in the Old World. Moreover, given the findings of this study regarding the effect of weather conditions on CL, it can be concluded that designing an early warning system is necessary to predict the incidence of CL based on different weather conditions.

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Effects of time-lagged meteorological variables on attributable risk of leishmaniasis in central region of Afghanistan

Cited by 15 publications

References 50 publications

Disparities in Risks of Malaria Associated with Climatic Variability among Women, Children and Elderly in the Chittagong Hill Tracts of Bangladesh

Disparities in Risks of Malaria Associated with Climatic Variability among Women, Children and Elderly in the Chittagong Hill Tracts of Bangladesh

Delay effect and burden of weather-related tuberculosis cases in Rajshahi province, Bangladesh, 2007–2012

An investigation of the effects of environmental and ecologic factors on cutaneous leishmaniasis in the old world: a systematic review study

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