The coastal springs in Pasco, Hernando, and Citrus Counties, Florida consist of three first-order magnitude springs and numerous smaller springs, which are points of substantial groundwater discharge from the Upper Floridan aquifer. Spring flow is proportional to the water-level altitude in the aquifer and is affected primarily by the magnitude and timing of rainfall. Groundwater levels in 206 Upper Floridan aquifer wells, and surfacewater stage, flow, and specific conductance of water from springs at 10 gaging stations were measured to define the hydrologic variability (temporally and spatially) in the Coastal Springs GroundWater Basin and adjacent parts of Pasco, Hernando, and Citrus Counties. Rainfall at 46 stations and groundwater withdrawals for three counties, were used to calculate water budgets, to evaluate long-term changes in hydrologic conditions, and to evaluate relations among the hydrologic components. Predictive equations to estimate daily spring flow were developed for eight gaging stations using regression techniques. Regression techniques included ordinary least squares and multiple linear regression techniques. The predictive equations indicate that groundwater levels in the Upper Hydrology of the Coastal Springs GroundWater Basin and Adjacent Parts of Pasco, Hernando, and Citrus Counties, Fla. Trends in hydrologic data were identified using nonparametric statistical techniques to infer long-term changes in hydrologic conditions, and yielded mixed results. No trend in rainfall was detected during the past century. No trend in spring flow was detected in 1931-98. Although monotonic trends were not detected, rainfall patterns are naturally variable from month to month and year to year; this variability is reflected in groundwater levels and spring flows. A decreasing trend in groundwater levels was detected in the Weeki Wachee well (1966-98), but the trend was statistically weak. At current groundwater withdrawal rates, there is no discernible affect on groundwater levels and spring flows. Sporadic data records, lack of continuous data, and inconsistent periods of record among the hydrologic components impeded analysis of long-term changes to the hydrologic system and interrelations among components. The ongoing collection of hydrologic data from index sites could provide much needed information to assess the hydrologic factors affecting the quantity and quality of spring flow in the Coastal Springs GroundWater Basin. 1. Hydrologic setting; 2. Hydrologic conditions during the investigation period (January 1997 through December 1998); 3. Estimates of daily spring flow from selected springs
