Effects of the El Niño–southern oscillation on temperature, precipitation, snow water equivalent and resulting streamflow in the Upper Rio Grande river basin

Abstract

Abstract:Snowmelt runoff dominates streamflow in the Upper Rio Grande (URG) basin of New Mexico and Colorado. Annual variations in streamflow timing and volume at most stations in the region are strongly influenced by the El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO) through its modulation of the seasonal cycles of temperature and precipitation, and hence on snow accumulation and melting. After removing long-term trends over the study period (water years 1952-99), the dependence of monthly temperature, precipitation, snow water equivalent (SWE) at snowcourse stations, and streamflow throughout the URG on ENSO was investigated using composite analyses of the detrended residuals and through dependence of the residuals on the Climate Prediction Center southern oscillation index during the preceding summer and fall. The climate of La Niña years was found to differ significantly from either El Niño or neutral years. Moreover, significant climatological ENSO-related effects are confined to certain months, predominantly at the beginning and end of the winter season. In particular, March of La Niña years is significantly warmer and drier than during either El Niño or neutral years, and November of El Niño years is significantly colder and wetter. Differences in temperature and precipitation lead to significant differences in SWE and streamflow in the URG between the three ENSO phases.

Novel Probes Showing Specific Fluorescence Enhancement on Binding to a Hexahistidine Tag

“…A wide variety of trends in streamflow have been detected and attributed to climate change and variability, but a few themes dominate the literature. The most common studies report earlier snowmelt, a shift to earlier streamflow timing, altered spring maximum flows, and/or intensified summer drought (Adam et al , 2009; Barnett et al , 2008; Brabets and Walvoord, 2009; Burn et al , 2010; Cuo et al , 2009; Hamlet et al , 2007; Hodgekins et al , 2003; Hodgekins and Dudley, 2006; Huntington et al , 2004; Jefferson et al , 2008; Knowles et al , 2006; Lee et al , 2004; Mote et al , 2003; Shepherd et al , 2010; Stewart et al , 2005; Stewart, 2009; Wilson et al , 2010; Xu et al , 2009). These studies focus on mountainous regions or near‐polar latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, and the relationships among warming, snowmelt, and streamflow vary with geographic location, elevation, and latitude.…”

“…Most studies use the Mann‐Kendall non‐parametric test (Hirsch and Slack, 1984; Helsel and Hirsch, 2002). Moreover, there is broad recognition that trends can be confounded with long‐term climate cycles (Burn, 2008; Huntington et al , 2004; Lee et al , 2004; Marengo, 2009; St. George, 2007; Weider and Boutt, 2010; Woo et al , 2006) and that trends are sensitive to the start date of the record (e.g. Wilby et al , 2008).…”

Changes in Climate and Land Cover Affect Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts in the Rio Grande Headwaters

“…Forecasting streamflow in the RGHW and URG has largely relied on the ability to represent snow and develop robust statistical relationships between climatology and streamflow. Recent studies have looked at sea‐surface temperature and streamflow (Lee et al 2004; Pascolini‐Campbell et al 2017; Bhandari et al 2019) and shown strong ability to predict streamflow in small headwater basins in the URG (Bhandari et al 2019); however, the relationships are not always consistent or pronounced, especially in the northern parts of the URG, such as the RGHW (Lee et al 2004; Pascolini‐Campbell et al 2017). SNOTEL stations were shown to preferentially represent densely forested areas in the RGHW (Molotch and Bales 2006), and thus changes in forest cover around SNOTEL stations from BBs or wildfire may disrupt existing statistical models.…”

Responses of Stream Water Temperature to Water Levels in Forested Catchments of South Korea

“…The researchers [23,56] also discussed that P T may cause changes in W L owing to direct inputs (i.e., channel interception) and by inducing W L from various hydrological stores and pathways. Lee et al [82] showed that annual variations in streamflow timing and volume depend on the seasonal cycles of P T in the upper part of the basin. Thus, P T can affect changes in the temperature and level of stream water as a function of climate variability within a catchment (e.g., [83,84]), even if T F and L R have different correlation patterns.…”