Effects of temperature fluctuations on spatial-temporal transmission of hand, foot, and mouth disease

Abstract

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD), predominantly occurs among infants and children. Previous studies have shown that suitable, stable temperatures favor HFMD virus reproduction; however, temperature fluctuations also affect virus transmission, and there are, so far, no studies concerning the association between such fluctuations and the incidence of HFMD. The objective of this study was to map the spatial-temporal distribution of HFMD incidence and quantify the long-term effects of temperature fluctuations on HFMD incidence in children. HFMD cases in children under five, from January 2009 to December 2013, in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei provinces of China, were used in this study. The GeoDetector and Bayesian space-time hierarchy models were employed to explore the spatial-temporal association between temperature fluctuations and HFMD incidence. The results indicate that HFMD incidence had significant spatial stratified heterogeneity (GeoDetector qstatistic = 0.83, p < 0.05), and that areas with higher risk mainly appeared in metropolises and their adjacent regions. HFMD transmission was negatively associated with temperature fluctuations. A 1 °C increase in the standard deviation of maximum and minimum temperatures was associated with decreases of 8.22% and 11.87% in the risk of HFMD incidence, respectively. The study suggests that large temperature fluctuations affect virus growth or multiplication, thereby inhibiting the activity of the virus and potentially even leading to its extinction, and consequently affecting the spatial-temporal distribution of HFMD. The findings can serve as a reference for the practical control of this disease and offer help in the rational allocation of medical resources.

A five-year retrospective study on the epidemiology of hand, foot and mouth disease in Sabah, Malaysia

“…As shown in this study, other countries in Asia, such as China 29 , Singapore, and Japan 7 , also observed an increment of more than two-fold in the number of cases throughout the last decade. Besides, this study also found that areas with high population density and more developed economies, such as Kota Kinabalu and Penampang had high number of HFMD cases, which is consistent with previous studies 30 . This may be attributed to the economic development and urbanization in these areas leading to more frequent communication and close contact with individuals, resulting in a higher risk of HFMD transmission 31 .…”

Estimating the influence of high temperature on hand, foot, and mouth disease incidence in China

“…Using the time series data of HFMD incidence in 31 provinces in China from 2008 to 2017, this study con rmed the correlation between temperature and hand, foot and mouth disease incidence, which is consistent with the previous research results (Xu et al, 2020;Pearson et al, 2020). However, different from other studies, we found that there are threshold differences in the impact of temperature on the incidence of HFMD in different regions and age groups, which can be used as a reference for early warning and guide the public health protection of HFMD.…”

The non-stationary and spatially varying associations between hand, foot and mouth disease and multiple environmental factors: A Bayesian spatiotemporal mapping model study

“…In terms of the influence of meteorological fluctuations, the facilitating effect of the increase in temperature on the risk of HFMD is found more significant in the 3-year period, while the inhibitory effect of the increase in precipitation is more obvious in the 5-year period. A previous study in North China pointed out that large fluctuations in environmental conditions may prevent the reproduction and transmission of enteroviruses ( Xu et al., 2020 ), and our results proved this conclusion by focusing on the impact of temperature and precipitation fluctuations on HFMD.…”