Effects of temperature and surface water availability on spatiotemporal dynamics of stream salamanders using pattern-oriented modelling

Girard, Philippe; Parrott, Lael; Caron, Charles-André; Green, David M.

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.09.026

Cited by 6 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 47 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Intensive and long-term demographic data show that changing hydrologic regimes are affecting pond-breeding amphibians (33)(34)(35), but a lack of similar data for stream and terrestrial amphibians has limited our ability to assess their response to climate change (36). Stream-breeding amphibians may be sensitive to hydrologic change because many have prolonged larval and metamorphic stages, during which they are restricted to stream channels, and behavioral, morphological, and ecological traits adapted to historical hydrologic conditions (37)(38)(39)(40)(41). Consistent with this expectation, stream amphibians were virtually absent from California streams exposed to catastrophic debris floods (42), unpredictable dam releases increased mortality in 2 river-breeding frogs (43), and occupancy of larval salamanders in North Carolina streams dropped by 30% during an extended drought (44).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrologic variability contributes to reduced survival through metamorphosis in a stream salamander

Lowe

Swartz

Addis

et al. 2019

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Changes in the amount, intensity, and timing of precipitation are increasing hydrologic variability in many regions, but we have little understanding of how these changes are affecting freshwater species. Stream-breeding amphibians—a diverse group in North America—may be particularly sensitive to hydrologic variability during aquatic larval and metamorphic stages. Here, we tested the prediction that hydrologic variability in streams decreases survival through metamorphosis in the salamander Gyrinophilus porphyriticus, reducing recruitment to the adult stage. Using a 20-y dataset from Merrill Brook, a stream in northern New Hampshire, we show that abundance of G. porphyriticus adults has declined by ∼50% since 1999, but there has been no trend in larval abundance. We then tested whether hydrologic variability during summers influences survival through metamorphosis, using capture–mark–recapture data from Merrill Brook (1999 to 2004) and from 4 streams in the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (2012 to 2014), also in New Hampshire. At both sites, survival through metamorphosis declined with increasing variability of stream discharge. These results suggest that hydrologic variability reduces the demographic resilience and adaptive capacity of G. porphyriticus populations by decreasing recruitment of breeding adults. They also provide insight on how increasing hydrologic variability is affecting freshwater species, and on the broader effects of environmental variability on species with vulnerable metamorphic stages.

show abstract

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrologic variability contributes to reduced survival through metamorphosis in a stream salamander

Lowe

Swartz

Addis

et al. 2019

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Dispersal is oriented toward humid areas and is density dependent for juveniles. The salamander model has been validated and calibrated based on field data for the Allegheny Mountain Dusky Salamander and provides reasonably accurate life cycle and distribution patterns in response to spatiotemporal temperature and humidity data for the environment (Girard et al, 2015).…”

Section: Salamander Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The individual-based model developed in this work has been previously described in Girard et al (2015). The model simulates the life cycle (growth and development) and movement of individual salamanders at a daily time step in response to environmental variables (temperature and humidity).…”

Section: Salamander Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Second, these outputs were input into an integrated surface-groundwater flow model to simulate the impact of these climate changes on groundwaterfed spring activity. Third, simulated daily time series of spring activity based on flow output from the groundwater model and daily temperature time series from the climate models were used as input data for an individual-based population model built specifically for stream-dwelling salamanders (Girard et al, 2015).…”

Section: Modeling Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although they might not be representative of specific locations on Covey Hill, these simplified environments nonetheless provide indications about the general fate of salamanders in typical habitats at different elevations of this hill and can be considered representative of similar regions in eastern North America. As described in Girard et al (2015), the model's predictions of salamander life cycles and population densities were calibrated for the reference period using available environmental data for the region and known salamander densities estimated from field data.…”

Section: Salamander Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Modeling cross-scale relationships between climate, hydrology, and individual animals: generating scenarios for stream salamanders

Girard

Levison

Parrott

et al. 2015

Front. Environ. Sci.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Hybrid modeling provides a unique opportunity to study cross-scale relationships in environmental systems by linking together models of global, regional, landscape, and local-scale processes, yet the approach is rarely applied to address conservation and management questions. Here, we demonstrate how a hybrid modeling approach can be used to assess the effect of cross-scale interactions on the survival of the Allegheny Mountain Dusky Salamander (Desmognathus ochrophaeus) in response to changes in temperature and water availability induced by climate change at the northern limits of its distribution. To do so, we combine regional climate modeling with a landscape-scale integrated surface-groundwater flow model and an individual-based model of stream salamanders. On average, climate scenarios depict a warmer and wetter environment for the 2050 horizon. The increase in average annual temperature and extended hydrological activity time series in the future, combined with a better synchronization with the salamanders' reproduction period, result in a significant increase in the long-term population viability of the salamanders. This indicates that climate change may not necessarily limit the survivability of small, stream-dwelling animals in headwater basins located in cold and humid regions. This new knowledge suggests that habitat conservation initiatives for amphibians with large latitudinal distributions in Eastern North America should be prioritized at the northern limits of their ranges to facilitate species migration and persistence in the face of climate change. This example demonstrates how hybrid models can serve as powerful tools for informing management and conservation decisions.

show abstract

Mechanistic population models for ecological risk assessment and decision support: The importance of good conceptual model diagrams

Forbes,

Accolla,

Banitz

et al. 2024

Integr Envir Assess & Manag

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The use of mechanistic population models as research and decision‐support tools in ecology and ecological risk assessment is increasing. This growth has been facilitated by advances in technology, allowing the simulation of more complex systems, as well as by standardized approaches for model development, documentation, and evaluation. Mechanistic population models are particularly useful for simulating complex systems, but the required model complexity can make them challenging to communicate. Conceptual diagrams that summarize key model elements, as well as elements that were considered but not included, can facilitate communication and understanding of models and increase their acceptance as decision‐support tools. Currently, however, there are no consistent standards for creating or presenting conceptual model diagrams, and both terminology and content vary widely. Here we argue that greater consistency in conceptual model diagram development and presentation is an important component of good modeling practice, and we provide recommendations, examples, and a free web app (pop‐cmd.com) for achieving this for population models used for decision support in ecological risk assessments.

show abstract

Effects of temperature and surface water availability on spatiotemporal dynamics of stream salamanders using pattern-oriented modelling

Cited by 6 publications

References 47 publications

Hydrologic variability contributes to reduced survival through metamorphosis in a stream salamander

Hydrologic variability contributes to reduced survival through metamorphosis in a stream salamander

Modeling cross-scale relationships between climate, hydrology, and individual animals: generating scenarios for stream salamanders

Mechanistic population models for ecological risk assessment and decision support: The importance of good conceptual model diagrams

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About