Effects of regional climate variability on the prevalence of diseases and their economic impacts on households in the Lake Victoria basin of Western Kenya

Ofulla, Ayub V.; Gichere, Samuel; Olado, Geoffrey; Abuom, Paul O.; Anyona, Douglas N.; Othero, Doreen; Matano, Ally Said; Gelder, Frank B.; Dida, Gabriel O.; Ouma, Collins; Owuor, P.O.; Amayi, Jairus Boston; Kanangire, Canisius Kabungo

doi:10.1504/ijgw.2016.077899

Cited by 1 publication

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“…The anthropogenic climate change, a gradual, long-term alteration of worldwide weather patterns caused by the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases (Jaha and Ekumah 2015;Zhong 2016;Aleixandre-Tudó et al 2019), influences the complex society-biosphere-climate-economy-energy system (Akhtar et al 2019), including diseases and their prevalence (Ofulla et al 2016). Climate affects the human behaviors and activities, the structure of the settlements, the population of the host and reservoir mammals, the conditions of the potential tick habitats, and therefore, these mankindinduced effects change the pathogen transmission and, finally, the incidence of human tick-borne diseases (Lindgren 1998).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A framework for predicting the effects of climate change on the annual distribution of Lyme borreliosis incidences

Bede‐Fazekas

Tràjer

2019

IJGW

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Global climate change is predicted to affect both the spatial and annual distributions of vector-borne diseases. Tick-borne diseases are particularly sensitive to the changing climatic conditions. Modeling them is, however, challenging due to the input-intensity of these models. A framework with low number of inputs (easily accessible weekly temperature data and week numbers) on modeling the seasonality of Lyme borreliosis incidences is presented. The modelling framework enables predicting the annual distribution of Ixodes ricinus tick's biting activity and Lyme borreliosis in two cascading phases, incorporating a population dynamics approach. The model is calibrated for Hungary as a case study, for the period of 1998-2008, using tick-borne encephalitis series as a proxy for biting activity. Prediction to the future period of 2081-2100 is also provided. Climate change may significantly alter both the annual distribution of I. ricinus activity and that of the Lyme borreliosis incidences. The currently unimodal annual distribution of Lyme borreliosis is predicted to become bimodal with a long summer pause and a spring maximum shifted 8 weeks earlier.

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