Effects of projected climate change on the distribution of <i>Mantis religiosa</i> suggest expansion followed by contraction

Abstract

Abstract. Climate change influences the global and regional distribution of many species. For thermophilic insects, range expansions towards the north and to higher elevations are expected in the course of climatic warming across the Northern Hemisphere. The distribution of the European mantis (Mantis religiosa) has recently expanded from Mediterranean regions in France to Hesse in central Germany. This is interpreted as a response to rising mean temperatures, and further northward expansion is expected to occur with increasing climate warming. In this study, potential changes in the regional distribution across Hesse were modeled for Mantis religiosa using the present distribution and climate across Europe as the baseline. We estimated potential changes in the regional distribution for two time periods until 2080 based on two climate change scenarios. The results showed that the current range of M. religiosa in Hesse is smaller than expected based on its climatic niche, i.e., the distribution is not in equilibrium with the present climate. With climate warming the model predicts an expansion of the potential distribution for the period 2041–2060. For the period 2061–2080, our model predicts, however, a range contraction in spite of continued warming. This unexpected result warrants further investigation in order to elucidate whether the ongoing climate change may have negative consequences for thermophilic species such as M. religiosa.

Ticks on the move—climate change-induced range shifts of three tick species in Europe: current and future habitat suitability for Ixodes ricinus in comparison with Dermacentor reticulatus and Dermacentor marginatus

“…A particular interest exists in assessing the potential changes in habitat suitability due to climate change for medically or economically relevant species. Thermophilic species (in Europe, e.g., species with focal distribution in Southern Europe) are assumed to benefit from increasing temperatures (Cunze et al 2016a ; Ju et al 2015 ; Steger et al 2020 ).…”

Ecological Niche Modelling Approaches: Challenges and Applications in Vector-Borne Diseases

“…Indeed, a northward expansion is projected in a number of tick species [93,170,184,185] (reviewed in [186]). However, the opposite is also feasible (range contraction), as the upper limits of a species thermal tolerance might be reached due to the continued warming, with negative consequences for thermophilic species (as an example, [187][188][189]). Indeed, a range contraction is expected for Lutzomyia intermedia (a tropical sand fly vectorizing Leishmania braziliensis), while other subtropical Lutzomyia species (L. neivai) is predicted to shift its range southwards in southern South America [189].…”

The European mantis Mantis religiosa (Linnaeus, 1758) (Mantodea: Mantidae) in Poland – the present status and changes in range

“…The following facts support this statement: 1) The regression of the population in the 19 th and first half of the 20 th century in Poland as well as in Germany was attributed to land use change (Schwarz et al 2017). 2) In spite of the current range expansion in Central Europe, a study found that in a scenario of continuous climate change the range of the European mantis will start contracting (Steger et al 2020). 3) Ongoing loss of open and halfopen habitats with low and sparse vegetation (Linn & Griebeler 2016).…”