Effects of Landscape Fragmentation and Climate on Lyme Disease Incidence in the Northeastern United States

Abstract

Lyme disease is the most frequently reported vector borne illness in the United States, and incidences are increasing steadily year after year. This study explores the influence of landscape (e.g., land use pattern and landscape fragmentation) and climatic factors (e.g., temperature and precipitation) at a regional scale on Lyme disease incidence. The study area includes thirteen states in the Northeastern United States. Lyme disease incidence at county level for the period of 2002-2006 was linked with several key landscape and climatic variables in a negative binomial regression model. Results show that Lyme disease incidence has a relatively clear connection with regional landscape fragmentation and temperature. For example, more fragmentation between forests and residential areas results in higher local Lyme disease incidence. This study also indicates that, for the same landscape, some landscape variables derived at a particular scale show a clearer connection to Lyme disease than do others. In general, the study sheds more light on connections between Lyme disease incidence and climate and landscape patterns at the regional scale. Integrating findings of this regional study with studies at a local scale will further refine understanding of the pattern of Lyme disease as well as increase our ability to predict, prevent, and respond to disease.

Linkages of Weather and Climate WithIxodes scapularisandIxodes pacificus(Acari: Ixodidae), Enzootic Transmission ofBorrelia burgdorferi, and Lyme Disease in North America

“…Studies exploring geographical variation in Lyme disease case counts or incidence in the eastern United States have not shown clear or consistent associations with temperature or moisture (Ashley and Meentemeyer 2004, Tran and Waller 2013, Tuite et al 2013, Robinson et al 2015). Inconsistencies across studies could relate to differences in methodology and spatial scales.…”

The impact of temperature and precipitation on blacklegged tick activity and Lyme disease incidence in endemic and emerging regions

“…Many studies have attempted to improve our understanding of the factors driving its spread and amplification in new areas [2, 3] as well as the habitat suitability of new areas in the United States and Canada for Ixodes scapularis [4–6], the primary vector for the Lyme disease spirochete ( Borrelia burgdorferi ). Correlative models have explored the effect of climatic factors on Lyme disease incidence averaged across expansive geographical regions, most commonly states in the U.S.A. [7, 8].…”

Climate change influences on the annual onset of Lyme disease in the United States

“…Although at local scales host community structure plays a large role in determining the density of infected nymphs (Mather et al, 1989; Ostfeld et al, 2006), at regional scales, temperature, humidity and precipitation are robust predictors of spatial and temporal distributions of I. scapularis (Brownstein et al, 2003; Diuk-Wasser et al, 2006, 2010; Estrada-Pena, 2002). These variables have also been associated with the geographical and temporal distributions of human cases of Lyme disease in the United States (Ashley and Meentemeyer, 2004; McCabe and Bunnell, 2004; Moore et al, 2014; Ogden et al, 2014; Subak, 2003; Tran and Waller, 2013). Understanding how meteorology impacts the seasonality of Lyme disease case occurrence can aid in targeting limited prevention resources and may shed light on how climate change could affect the seasonal occurrence of the disease (Gray, 2008).…”