Effects of Land Cover Changes and Rainfall Variation on the Landslide Size–Frequency Distribution in a Mountainous Region of Western Japan

Abstract

This study investigated the size–frequency distribution of 512 landslides triggered by heavy rain in July 2018 on Omishima Island, western Japan. Since the island has undergone rapid land use and land cover changes in recent decades, this study statistically examined the impact of past land cover changes on the shape of, and local variability in, the size–frequency distribution using the inverse gamma model. The possible influence of rainfall conditions was also examined. The landslides were classified based on the severity of anthropogenic disturbance and rainfall using a 56-year (1962–2018) land cover trajectory map and hourly rainfall distribution data. The results indicated that the land cover change (mainly forest conversion into farmland and its abandonment) affected the size and frequency of landslides that occurred decades after the disturbance. Although all landslide groups had similar small rollovers (location of probability peak; 0.042–0.075 × 10−3 km2), the scaling exponents of the negative power-law decay were lower for landslides in secondary forest and newly developed farmland (ρ = 1.084–1.231) than in old forest and farmland (ρ = 2.504–2.611). This difference is considered significant compared to general exponent values (ρ = 2.30 ± 0.56), suggesting that farmland development after 1962 caused widespread slope instability, leading to an increase in the proportion of large landslides. By contrast, no clear correlations with rainfall intensity were found, primarily due to complex localised variations in rainfall conditions.