Effects of future sea level rise on coastal habitat

Abstract

Sea level rise (SLR) and disturbances from increased storm activity are expected to diminish coastal ecosystems available to nesting species by removing habitat and inundating nests during incubation. We updated the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) Coastal Vulnerability Index, which provides a qualitative and relative assessment of a coastal area's vulnerability to erosion and shoreline retreat as a function of SLR and other factors, for the South Atlantic Bight. We considered a eustatic SLR projection of 14 cm by 2030. We linked long‐term survey data for 3 sea turtle species, 3 shorebird species, and 5 seabird species to future coastal erosion vulnerability to SLR to understand effects of future SLR on nesting habitats. Over 2,000 km (43%) of the South Atlantic Bight coastline is projected to have an increase in coastal erosion vulnerability by the 2030s, with respect to its present vulnerability. Future vulnerability of SLR‐induced erosion along the South Atlantic Bight is spatially variable, and the 11 coastal study species also varied in their use of coastal habitats with high future coastal vulnerability to SLR. For example, only 23% of high‐density nesting habitat for the brown pelican (Pelecanus occidentalis) is expected to be at increased vulnerability to SLR, whereas >70% of the high‐nesting density habitat for 2 seabird species (gull‐billed tern [Gelochelidon nilotica], sandwich tern [Thalasseus sandvicensis]) is predicted to have higher future coastal erosion vulnerability by 2030. We provide predictions for the level of susceptibility of the study species to erosion from future SLR, which is the first step in managing coastal species for the changing environmental conditions associated with climate change and SLR. © 2019 The Authors. Journal of Wildlife Management Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Wildlife Society.

Climate change and marine turtles: recent advances and future directions

“…In summary, because the eggs of marine turtles incubate at the mercy of their local environment (Miller 1997), overall patterns of hatching success are related to local climatic factors such as temperature, rainfall, inundation, and storminess (Caut et al 2010, Ahles & Milton 2016, Montero et al 2018a,b, 2019, but the effect of climate appears to be variable (Santidrián Tomillo et al 2015b) and may not entirely explain hatchling production failure (Rafferty et al 2017). Metabolic heat can also significantly increase incubation temperatures towards the end of development, and therefore impact hatching success (Zbinden et al 2006, Gammon et al 2020.…”

“…Despite the potential impacts of SLR and storms on marine turtle nesting grounds and their reproductive output, only a few studies have projected how these climatic processes will impact marine turtles. This is likely a reflection of the challenges inherent in successfully predicting shoreline response to SLR and storm activities (Cooper & Pilkey 2004, Von Holle et al 2019, and the inability to couple projections with biological information (e.g. nest site choice, responses to changes in beach morphology).…”

“…Recent studies (Butt et al 2016, Von Holle et al 2019, Lyons et al 2020) have taken advantage of other novel sophisticated approaches (e.g. coastal vulnerability index, storm surge models, SLR calculators) and open-access geomorphology datasets (e.g.…”

Conservation implications of sea turtle nesting trends: elusive recovery of a globally important loggerhead population

“…, Von Holle et al. ). Although there has been some improvement in bycatch in a few localized instances (Finkbeiner et al.…”

Quantifying the impacts of future sea level rise on nesting sea turtles in the southeastern United States

“…At the same time, the severity of extreme weather events is increasing (Irish et al, 2014), potentially washing out beach areas, flooding the nests of beach nesting species (Van Houtan and Bass 2007), and changing beach morphology for future nesting seasons (Houser et al 2015). The combined effects of these habitat-changing forces could decrease available habitat for species that rely on sandy beaches for part of their lifecycle (Von Holle et al 2019).…”