Effects of El-Niño, Indian Ocean Dipole, and Madden-Julian Oscillation on Surface Air Temperature and Rainfall Anomalies over Southeast Asia in 2015

Abstract

The Maritime Continent (MC) is positioned between the Asian and Australian summer monsoons zone. The complex topography and shallow seas around it are major challenges for the climate researchers to model and understand it. It is also the centre of the tropical warm pool of Southeast Asia (SEA) and therefore the MC gets extra attention of the researchers. The monsoon in this area is affected by inter-scale ocean-atmospheric interactions such as the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Monsoon rainfall in the MC (especially in Indonesia and Malaysia) profoundly exhibits its variability dependence on ocean-atmospheric phenomena in this region. This monsoon shift often introduces to dreadful events like biomass burning (BB) in Southeast Asia (SEA) in which some led to severe trans-boundary haze pollution events in the past. In this study, the BB episode of 2015 in the MC is highlighted and discussed. Observational satellite datasets are tested by performing simulations with the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model WRF-ARW (Weather Research and Forecast—Advanced research WRF). Observed and model datasets are compared to study the surface air temperature and precipitation (rainfall) anomalies influenced by ENSO, IOD, and MJO. Links amongst these influences have been recognised and the delayed precipitation of the regular monsoon in the MC due to their influence during the 2015 BB episode is explained and accounted for, which eventually led to the intensification of fire and a severe haze.

Forest cover and climate as potential drivers for dengue fever in Sumatra and Kalimantan 2006–2016: a spatiotemporal analysis

“…It was followed by a light La Niña in 2016, when the rainy season started earlier and lasted longer. The ENSO event also influenced inter-annual rainfall variability [44], with Sumatra, Kalimantan and Malaysia being most affected [45]. This phenomenon is similar to ENSO 1992-2001 [46] and was also recorded in Taiwan in 2016 [47][48][49][50].…”

Seasonal Responses of Precipitation in China to El Niño and Positive Indian Ocean Dipole Modes

“…El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant variation in the modern climate system that fluctuates irregularly on inter-annual time scales [5][6][7][8][9][10]. This episodic phenomenon has been linked to precipitation anomalies across China [11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18], especially over low latitudes [19][20][21][22][23]. For instance, Zhou and Wu [9] revealed that warm ENSO mainly leads to lower-level southwesterly winds being deflected from the southeast coast of China and consequently influencing the winter precipitation in southern China.…”

Quantifying precipitation extremes and their relationships with large‐scale climate oscillations in a tropical country, Singapore: 1980–2018

“…Xavier et al (2014) found that MJO affected localized precipitation extremes both in intensity and duration, demonstrating the feasibility of precipitation prediction at medium range. Islam et al (2018) showed that positive IOD phases had led to an extremely low precipitation rate especially during monsoon seasons, which eventually caused more fire and haze events. One of the worst floods that happened at the end of 2006 and early 2007 in southern Peninsular Malaysia was caused mostly by three extreme precipitation episodes, associated with MJO and IOD phases (Tangang et al, 2008).…”

“…In Southeast Asia, Xavier et al (2014) studied the influence of MJO on precipitation extremes using TRMM satellite-derived rainfall and rain gauge data. Islam et al (2018) illustrated that the biomass burning episode of 2015 was strongly influenced by ENSO and positive IOD phases. Yang et al (2010) found that the Asian monsoon circulation is significantly related to the IOD and IOB.…”