Effects of earthquake spatial slip correlation on variability of tsunami potential energy and intensities

Abstract

Variability characterization of tsunami generation is quintessential for proper hazard estimation. For this purpose we isolate the variability which stems solely from earthquake spatial source complexity, by simulating tsunami inundation in the near-field with a simplified digital elevation model, using nonlinear shallow water equations. For earthquake rupture, we prescribe slip to have a log-normal probability distribution function and von Kármán correlation between each subfault pair, which we assume decreases with increasing euclidean distance between them. From the generated near-field inundation time-series, emanating from several thousand synthetic slip realizations across a magnitude 9 earthquake, we extract several tsunami intensity measures at the coast. Results show that all considered tsunami intensity measures and potential energy variability increase with increasing spatial slip correlations. Finally, we show that larger spatial slip correlations produce higher tsunami intensity measure exceedance probabilities within the near-field, which highlights the need to quantify the uncertainty of earthquake spatial slip correlation.

Plate‐Locking, Uncertainty Estimation and Spatial Correlations Revealed With a Bayesian Model Selection Method: Application to the Central Chile Subduction Zone

“…Although the inverse method presented in this work is used to calculate backslip and locking at the subduction fault contact zone, it can serve to any physical phenomenon that requires positivity model parameter constraints, with a specified degree of prior knowledge, and their correlations between model parameters. Furthermore, by model estimation, uncertainty quantification and hyperparameters selection, it is possible to use the backslip solution to generate stochastic rupture models such as strong motion or tsunami propagation (Crempien et al., 2020) and to estimate seismic hazard (Small & Melgar, 2021), which will be explored thoroughly in the future.…”

A Source Clustering Approach for Efficient Inundation Modeling and Regional Scale Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

“…It is impossible to know the correct distribution due to the high degree of epistemic uncertainty in subduction zones with infrequent past megathrust events. However, recent studies have suggested ways to generate a geophysically reasonable distribution that can be easily sampled to generate large numbers of hypothetical events (LeVeque et al, 2016); accordingly, the approach we use is based on a Karhunen-Loève (K-L) expansion to generate slip patterns with correlation lengths that are thought to be "reasonable" from studies of past events, e.g., (Mai and Beroza, 2002;Goda et al, 2016;Melgar and Hayes, 2019;Crempien et al, 2020), as discussed further in Section 2. We stress, however, that we do not claim we have the "correct" distribution, or even the best possible based on available science, and so our focus is on a methodology that could also easily be applied to other choices of the PDF.…”

Penerapan Hiasan Motif Daun Kelapa dengan Menggunakan Teknik Bordir dan Payet pada Busana Pengantin

“…Berdasarkan kesepakatan ini, rencana adalah rencana yang dirancang berdasarkan garis, bentuk, nada, ukuran, dan permukaan menjadi satu kesatuan, untuk menciptakan sesuatu yang indah dan menarik. Desain busana merupakan suatu rencana gambar yang nantinya akan diwujudkan dengan tujuan untuk memperindah tampilan desain dengan menerapkan sulaman atau bordir (Crempien et al, 2020).…”