Effects of covid-19 pandemic on life expectancy and premature mortality in 2020: time series analysis in 37 countries

Islam, Nazrul; Jdanov, Dmitri A.; Shkolnikov, Vladimir M.; Khunti, Kamlesh; Kawachi, Ichiro; White, Martin; Lewington, Sarah; Lacey, Ben

doi:10.1136/bmj-2021-066768

Cited by 162 publications

(156 citation statements)

References 59 publications

(167 reference statements)

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“…Regarding European countries, Lithuania, Bulgaria, and Poland experienced the largest losses in life expectancy in 2020, with larger losses in males than females [ 17 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Burden of COVID-19 and Vaccination Coverage in the Italian Population as of October 2021

Altobelli

Marzi

Angelone

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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Following the pandemic scenario, researchers from all over the world, including Italians, have undertaken fervent research activity using the epidemiological data available on the sites of government and national and international research institutes. The objectives of our study were: (1) to analyze the load and trend of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy, from the beginning to October 2021; (2) to analyze vaccination coverage by age groups and types of vaccines administered and check how the vaccination campaign has influenced the course of the disease and deaths; (3) to evaluate the Italian situation in the European context, comparing the incidence and mortality of Italy with respect to European countries; (4) finally, to evaluate how much vaccination coverage may have had an effect on mortality in the various European countries. Databases were structured to archive Italian and European COVID-19 data provided by Our World in Data, and data came from the Ministry of Health, to evaluate percentage of vaccines administered. The monthly trend of the cumulative incidence per 100,000 inhabitants in the period January 2020–October 2021 was evaluated. It is important to underline 3 peaks of incidence and mortality rates that occurred during the three waves of COVID-19: March–April–May 2020, October–November–December 2020, and March–April–May 2021. There is a slight increase in incidence in August 2021 and in mortality in September 2021. The three mortality rate peaks, related to the three waves of COVID-19, are always higher in Italy than in Europe, particularly in April 2020, December 2020, and March 2021. From May 2021 to October 2021, the mortality trend reversed, and it turned out to be higher in Europe than in Italy. Regarding vaccination, Italy currently has an important coverage, not only in the most fragile population, where it exceeds 90%, but also in the 12–19 age group, with percentages above 65%. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine was used widely in all age groups (first and second dose), with highest administration in 12–19 age groups and 80+, while the lowest was recorded in the 70–79 age group. In conclusion, these data confirm the importance of vaccination in the management of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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“…Regarding European countries, Lithuania, Bulgaria, and Poland experienced the largest losses in life expectancy in 2020, with larger losses in males than females [ 17 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Burden of COVID-19 and Vaccination Coverage in the Italian Population as of October 2021

Altobelli

Marzi

Angelone

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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“… 2021 ; Islam et al. 2021 ). For instance, and just to mention some of the countries considered in this study, in 2020, the life expectancy at birth has remained stable in Iceland and even increased in Norway.…”

Section: Case Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The relay for human longevity: country-specific contributions to the increase of the best-practice life expectancy

2022

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This study investigates the long-term dynamics of longevity by taking into account the specific contribution of each country, and how this has changed over time, thus highlighting different timing and speeds of the evolution of life expectancy among the low-lowest mortality countries. Leveraging on quantile regression, we analyze the specific position of countries that have recorded the maximum (BPLE) and second-best life expectancy value at least once in the period 1960-2014, both at ages 0 and 65. Moving in this direction, the purpose of our contribution is to provide new perspectives on the untracked behavior that may be overshadowed by the maximum longevity levels. Our results provide a comprehensive picture of the different phases and transitions experienced by developed countries in the evolution of life expectancy that has led to a continuous increase in the BPLE. This study is a prominent practice in detecting untracked behaviors, providing imminent onsets on the maximum and sub-maximum values, thus contributing to new clues for future longevity.

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“…29 A recent study of 37 high-income countries also revealed reduction in life expectancy in all countries—except six, which included Iceland and South Korea—underscoring the importance of containment and mitigation. 10 …”

Section: Three Layers Of Defencementioning

confidence: 99%

A three-layer system to win the war against COVID-19 and invest in health systems of the future

et al. 2021

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The COVID-19 pandemic taught us many lessons, most critically that its human and economic toll would have been significantly smaller if countries had in place strong layers of defence that would have either prevented the spillover of the SARS-CoV-2 into a human population in the first place, or, failing that, contained the outbreak to avert its global spread. Further, the brunt of COVID-19 impacts on some countries considered ‘most prepared’ for pandemics underscored the need for an integrated approach to ensure resilience to future epidemics. Consequently, as countries plan ahead to prevent future pandemics, they should give priority to investments that transform their systems, particularly in the precrises phase, to preparedness and response through a multilayered defence. We propose a three-layered approach for post-COVID-19 investments in public health functions and service delivery, particularly at the community and precrises levels. This framework highlights the interventions that enable countries to better prevent, detect and contain epidemic threats, and that strengthen the efficient use of limited resources towards high-impact precrises systems.

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Effects of covid-19 pandemic on life expectancy and premature mortality in 2020: time series analysis in 37 countries

Cited by 162 publications

References 59 publications

Burden of COVID-19 and Vaccination Coverage in the Italian Population as of October 2021

Burden of COVID-19 and Vaccination Coverage in the Italian Population as of October 2021

The relay for human longevity: country-specific contributions to the increase of the best-practice life expectancy

A three-layer system to win the war against COVID-19 and invest in health systems of the future

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