Effects of climate change on habitat and connectivity for populations of a vulnerable, endemic salamander in Iran

Ashrafzadeh, Mohammad Reza; Naghipour, Ali Asghar; Haidarian, Maryam; Kusza, Szilvia; Pilliod, David S.

doi:10.1016/j.gecco.2019.e00637

Cited by 47 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 77 publications

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“…In addition to the mentioned habitat variables, the current climatic variables (time period: 1979-2013) were downloaded from CHELSA database with high accuracy (30 arcsec, CH 1 km) [67]. Three General Circulation Models (GCMs), including CCSM4 (National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA), BCC-CSM1-1(Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration), and MRI-CGCM3(Meteorological Research Institute, Japan) have been proved to be suitable for the modeling of climate change in Iran and provide a better forecast of species dispersal than the other GCMs [68][69][70][71]. Therefore, these three models were used to…”

Section: Plos Onementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Each cell on the map is assigned a numeric value representing the relative cost that must be paid to pass through each cell and can be calculated by combining different criteria [102]. To determine the cost of displacement in the landscape, the resistance map was prepared by inverting the map of habitat suitability [69,86,103]. With this operation, the lowest displacement costs will be assigned to those areas with the highest habitat suitability for the species, while the highest costs will be in habitats with low suitability [104].…”

Section: Landscape Connectivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The theory of electrical circuitry requires nodes to run. These nodes can be considered as the cores of suitable habitats identified by applying a threshold [49,69,86] or as the boundary of protected areas [105,106].…”

Section: Landscape Connectivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this study, protected areas were considered as focal nodes (Fig 1) and the probability of movement and displacement between all pairs of the protected areas was calculated by pairwise connectivity index and cumulative current flow [69]. Ruchoon and Khabar Protected Areas in Kerman Province were considered as one node due to their proximity to each other.…”

Section: Landscape Connectivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Accessing habitat suitability and connectivity for the westernmost population of Asian black bear (Ursus thibetanus gedrosianus, Blanford, 1877) based on climate changes scenarios in Iran

Morovati¹,

Karami

Amjas³

2020

PLoS ONE

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Climate change, as an emerging phenomenon, has led to changes in the distribution, movement, and even risk of extinction of various wildlife species and this has raised concerns among conservation biologists. Different species have two options in the face of climate change, either to adopt or follow their climatic niche to new places through the connectivity of habitats. The modeling of interpatch landscape communications can serve as an effective decision support tool for wildlife managers. This study was conducted to assess the effects of climate change on the distribution and habitat connectivity of the endangered subspecies of Asian black bear (Ursus thibetanus gedrosianus) in the southern and southeastern Iran. The presence points of the species were collected in Provinces of Kerman, Hormozgan, and Sistan-Baluchestan. Habitat modeling was done by the Generalized Linear Model, and 3 machine learning models including Maximum Entropy, Back Propagation based artificial Neural Network, and Support Vector Machine. In order to achieve the ensemble model, the results of the mentioned models were merged based on the method of “accuracy rate as weight” derived from their validation. To construct pseudo-absence points for the use in the mentioned models, the Ensemble model of presence-only models was used. The modeling was performed using 15 habitat variables related to climatic, vegetation, topographic, and anthropogenic parameters. The three general circulation models of BCC-CSM1, CCSM4, and MRI-CGCM3 were selected under the two scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 by 2070. To investigate the effect of climate change on the habitat connections, the protected areas of 3 provinces were considered as focal nodes and the connections between them were established based on electrical circuit theory and Pairwise method. The true skill statistic was employed to convert the continuous suitability layers to binary suitable/unsuitable range maps to assess the effectiveness of the protected areas in the coverage of suitable habitats for the species. Due to the high power of the stochastic forest model in determining the importance of variables, this method was used. The results showed that presence/absence models were successful in the implementation and well distinguished the points of presence and pseudo-absence from each other. Based on the random forests model, the variables of Precipitation of Driest Quarter, Precipitation of Coldest Quarter, and Temperature Annual Range have the greatest impact on the habitat suitability. Comparing the modeling findings to the realities of the species distribution range indicated that the suitable habitats are located in areas with high humidity and rainfall, which are mostly in the northern areas of Bandar Abbas, south of Kerman, and west and south of Sistan-Baluchestan. The area of suitable habitats, in the MRI-CGCM3 (189731 Km2) and CCSM4 (179007 Km2) models under the RCP2.6 scenario, is larger than the current distribution (174001 Km2). However, in terms of the performance of protected areas, the optimal coverage of the species by the boundary of the protected areas, under each of the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, is less than the present time. According to the electric circuit theory, connecting the populations in the protected areas of Sistan-Baluchestan province to those in the northern Hormozgan and the southern Kerman would be based on the crossing through the heights of Sistan-Baluchestan and Hormozgan provinces and the plains between these heights would be the movement pinch points under the current and future scenarios. Populations in the protected areas of Kerman have higher quality patch connections than that of the other two provinces. The areas such as Sang-e_Mes, Kouh_Shir, Zaryab, and Bahr_Aseman in Kerman Province and Kouhbaz and Geno in Hormozgan Province can provide suitable habitats for the species in the distribution models. The findings revealed that the conservation of the heights along with the caves inside them could be a protective priority to counteract the effects of climate change on the species.

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Section: Plos Onementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Landscape Connectivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Landscape Connectivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Landscape Connectivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Accessing habitat suitability and connectivity for the westernmost population of Asian black bear (Ursus thibetanus gedrosianus, Blanford, 1877) based on climate changes scenarios in Iran

Morovati¹,

Karami

Amjas³

2020

PLoS ONE

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“…In addition, the global representation of these studies is also lacking and does not fully represent patterns of taxonomic diversity around the world. Of the 36 studies included in our quantitative analyses, only one study was conducted within Africa (Ayebare et al 2018), three within Asia (Duan et al 2016;Subba et al 2018;Ashrafzadeh et al 2019), nine within North America, 10 within Europe, and 13 within South America. Most species were evaluated in only one study, and only a few studies replicated analyses for similar suites of species across the same geographic regions.…”

Section: Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Clearing up the Crystal Ball: Understanding Uncertainty in Future Climate Suitability Projections for Amphibians

2020

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Amphibian populations are threatened globally, and one of the hypotheses for these declines is climate change. Species distribution models are frequently used to predict changes in suitable habitat as a result of changing climates; however, these projections can be heavily influenced by choice of modeling approach. To evaluate global predictions for amphibians, we conducted a literature review of studies that utilize correlative species distribution models to project changes in climate suitability under various climate change scenarios. We paid particular attention to the use of model selection in choosing among candidate species distribution models (SDMs) so as to control for overparameterization of SDMs. In addition, we conducted a case study with three species of Slender Salamanders (Batrachoseps) to further investigate the impact of differences in modeling decisions on projected amphibian climate suitability. We found 83 studies (including the present case study) in which projections of future climate suitability were made for amphibian species. Of those studies, 36 included estimates of percent change in climate suitability and thus were included in our meta-analysis. These studies included projections for over 1000 species or species complexes, with the majority being Anurans (86%), and encompassed five continents with the most representation in South America, Europe, and North America. Across these studies, average projected change in climate suitability ranged from À70% to 167%, and these projected changes varied with dispersal assumptions representative concentration pathway (RCP) used, the projection year, and taxonomic order. Only three of the 36 studies reported the use of Akaike information criterion (AIC)-based model selection to choose a best-fit SDM. However, our case study demonstrated that predicted change in climate suitability varied whether the best-fit or default SDM was used for projections. Further, this result varied among species (DAIC ¼ 0), suggesting that the impact of overparameterization differs across species. Our results illustrate that there is a pressing need to project climate suitability across more species and more geographic regions. In addition, we may need to revisit projections for previously investigated species to evaluate additional climate scenarios and whether overparameterization may have influenced projections. Our ability to accurately model future changes in climate suitability will be essential for successful conservation and management plans for amphibians.

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Climate change and the biodiversity of alpine ponds: Challenges and perspectives

Lamouille‐Hébert,

Arthaud,

Datry

2024

Ecology and Evolution

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Inland waters are among the most threatened biodiversity hotspots. Ponds located in alpine areas are experiencing more rapid and dramatic water temperature increases than any other biome. Despite their prevalence, alpine ponds and their biodiversity responses to climate change have been poorly explored, reflecting their small size and difficult access. To understand the effects of climate change on alpine pond biodiversity, we performed a comprehensive literature review for papers published since 1955. Through analysis of their geographic distribution, environmental features, and biodiversity values, we identified which environmental factors related to climate change would have direct or indirect effects on alpine pond biodiversity. We then synthesized this information to produce a conceptual model of the effects of climate change on alpine pond biodiversity. Increased water temperature, reduced hydroperiod, and loss of connectivity between alpine ponds were the main drivers of biodiversity geographic distribution, leading to predictable changes in spatial patterns of biodiversity. We identified three major research gaps that, if addressed, can guide conservation and restoration strategies for alpine ponds biodiversity in an uncertain future.

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Effects of climate change on habitat and connectivity for populations of a vulnerable, endemic salamander in Iran

Cited by 47 publications

References 77 publications

Accessing habitat suitability and connectivity for the westernmost population of Asian black bear (Ursus thibetanus gedrosianus, Blanford, 1877) based on climate changes scenarios in Iran

Accessing habitat suitability and connectivity for the westernmost population of Asian black bear (Ursus thibetanus gedrosianus, Blanford, 1877) based on climate changes scenarios in Iran

Clearing up the Crystal Ball: Understanding Uncertainty in Future Climate Suitability Projections for Amphibians

Climate change and the biodiversity of alpine ponds: Challenges and perspectives

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