Effects of climate change on annual streamflow using climate elasticity in Poyang Lake Basin, China

Sun, Shurong; Chen, Haishan; Ju, Weimin; Song, Jie; Zhang, Hao; Sun, Jian; Fang, Yujie

doi:10.1007/s00704-012-0714-y

Cited by 55 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…However, interactions between precipitation and E p and the original climate elasticity of streamflow do not effectively reflect the relationship of streamflow with precipitation and E p . Therefore, to obtain more accurate and reasonable results in this study, we estimated the impact of climate change on streamflow using a modified climate elasticity method for streamflow as proposed by [18] Sun et al…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To solve this problem, Sun et al [18] modified the climate elasticity of streamflow and found the modified climate elasticity to be more accurate and reasonable based on a correlation analysis. According to Sun et al [18], the modified climate elasticity of a streamflow can be expressed as follows:…”

Section: The Sensitivity Of Streamflow To Precipitation and Potentialmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For the past few years, investigations on the responses of hydrological processes to climate change have become increasingly common in China [2,[16][17][18]. For example, Du et al [16] showed that the contribution of climate variation to streamflow reduction in a basin located in a humid region of South China was 47%.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Sensitivity Analysis of the Effects of Climate Change on Streamflow Using Climate Elasticity in the Luan River Basin, China

Wang¹,

He²

2017

Pol. J. Environ. Stud.

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Natural streamflow is the main source of surface water and plays an important role in agricultural irrigation, socioeconomic development, and local eco-environmental conservation at the basin level. The Luan River basin is a sub-basin of the Hai River in northern China. This basin is an important economic centre of China and has a key role in the sustainable development of the economy and ecology. To alleviate water shortages in Tianjin and Tangshan, the Panjiakou and Daheiting Reservoir system, which is the primary water source for these two cities, was constructed in the 1980s to supply water to 6.5 million Pol. J. Environ. Stud. Vol. 26, No. 2 (2017), 837-845 Original Research AbstractStreamflow depends directly on climate conditions (e.g., precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, or E p ), which affect water balance at the basin scale. The present study was conducted to investigate the impact of climate change on streamflow in the Luan River basin, China. To assess the impact of climatic variation on streamflow, the temporal trends of streamflow were explored using the Mann-Kendall method and the sensitivities of streamflow to precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and the aridity index were evaluated with the modified method of climate elasticity. The results showed that the average coefficients of sensitivity of streamflow to precipitation and potential evapotranspiration were 3.23 and -2.23, respectively, indicating that a 10% increase in precipitation or potential evapotranspiration would lead to a 32.3% increase or a 22.3% decrease in streamflow, respectively. Additionally, the average coefficient of sensitivity of streamflow to the aridity index was -2.53, which indicated that streamflow would decrease by 25.3% with a 10% increase in the aridity index. The average coefficients of the sensitivity of streamflow to climatic variation appeared to have an inverse relationship with the runoff coefficient, showing that the lower the streamflow of the basin became, the more sensitive the streamflow would be with respect to climatic variation.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Sensitivity Of Streamflow To Precipitation and Potentialmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Sensitivity Analysis of the Effects of Climate Change on Streamflow Using Climate Elasticity in the Luan River Basin, China

Wang¹,

He²

2017

Pol. J. Environ. Stud.

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“…S , T and P are the multi-year mean of variable S, T and P, respectively. In order to emphasize the effects of the temperature and precipitation, and to separate their roles on the hydrological cycle, here we apply the similar approach to estimate the sensitivity of the hydrological quantities to climate forcing variables [11], which can be approximated as…”

Section: Sensitivity Index Of Hydrological Variables To Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

“…By analyzing the hydroclimate changes in the Mississippi River, Qian et al [10] concluded that the increasing evapotranspiration was dominated by the changes in precipitation, whereas the impact of temperature was minor [11]. Meanwhile, the land hydrological cycle can also produce important feedbacks on the climate.…”

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confidence: 99%

Hotspots of the sensitivity of the land surface hydrological cycle to climate change

et al. 2013

Self Cite

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Due to the shortage of the global observational data of the terrestrial hydrological variables, the understanding of how surface hydrological processes respond to climate change is still limited. In this study, the Community Land Model (CLM4.0) with high resolution atmospheric forcing data is selected to simulate the global surface hydrological quantities during the period and to investigate the spatial features of these quantities in response to climate change at the regional scales. The sensitivities of evaporation and runoff with respect to the dominant climate change factors (e.g. temperature and precipitation) derived from the concept of climate elasticity are introduced. Results show that evaporation has a declining trend with a rate of 0.7 mm per decade, while runoff shows a weak increasing trend of 0.15 mm per decade over the global land surface. Analyses of the hotspots in the hydrological cycle indicate that the spatial distributions for evaporation and runoff are similar over many areas in central Asia, Australia, and southern South America, but differ largely in high latitudes. It is also found that, the evaporation hotspots in arid regions are mainly associated with the changes in precipitation. Our sensitive analysis suggests that the hydrological quantities show a rather complicated spatial dependency of response of the water cycle to the different climate factors (temperature and precipitation). The earth's climate has been warming throughout the 20th century and there is strong evidence that this warming, particularly over the last half-century, is very likely due to the increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations [1]. One of the most direct impacts of the global warming is an accelerated hydrological cycle due to the increase of atmospheric water content associated with the warming [2]. Climate change is believed to strongly alter the global hydrological cycle [3,4]. A number of changes in the water cycle have been documented based on the observational studies. For example, Labat et al. [5] pointed out the global river flow has increased significantly during the 20th century and Roderick and Farquhar [6] found that pan evaporation has decreased in many areas of the world. Climate models also project that the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events will continue to increase [1]. These changes have important implications for waterresource management, agriculture, flood/drought control and many other sectors and thus the research on the changes in the global and regional water cycle has caused wide public concern all over the world.The sensitivities of the hydrological responses to climate changes have been studied recently [7][8][9]. By analyzing the hydroclimate changes in the Mississippi River, Qian et al.

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Variations in runoff, sediment load, and their relationship for a major sediment source area of the Jialing River basin, southern China

Shao

et al. 2021

Hydrological Processes

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Investigation of the variations in runoff, sediment load, and their dynamic relation is conducive to understanding hydrological regime changes and supporting channel regulation and fluvial management. This study is undertaken in the Xihanshui catchment, which is known for its high sediment-laden in the Jialing River of the Yangtze River basin, southern China, to evaluate the change characteristics of runoff, sediment load, and their relationship at multi-temporal scales from 1966 to 2016. The results showed that runoff changed significantly for more months, whereas the significant changes in monthly sediment load occurred from April to September. The contributions of runoff in summer and autumn and sediment load in summer to their annual value changes were greater. Annual runoff and sediment load in the Xihanshui catchment both exhibited significant decreasing trends (p < 0.05) with a significant mutation in 1993 (p < 0.05). The average annual runoff in the change period decreased by 49.58% and annual sediment load displayed a substantial decline with a reduction of 77.77% in comparison with the reference period due to climate change and intensive human activity. The power functions were satisfactory to describe annual and extreme monthly runoff-sediment relationships, whereas the monthly runoff-sediment relationship and extreme monthly sediment-runoff relationship were changeable. Spatially, annual runoff-sediment relationship alteration could be partly attributed to sediment load changes in the upstream area and runoff variations in the downstream region. Three quantitative methods revealed that the main driver for significant reductions of annual runoff and sediment load is the human activity dominated by soil and water conservation measures, while climate change only contributed 22.73%-38.99% (mean 32.07%) to the total runoff reduction and 3.39%-35.56% (mean 17.32%) to the total decrease in sediment load.

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Effects of climate change on annual streamflow using climate elasticity in Poyang Lake Basin, China

Cited by 55 publications

References 48 publications

Sensitivity Analysis of the Effects of Climate Change on Streamflow Using Climate Elasticity in the Luan River Basin, China

Sensitivity Analysis of the Effects of Climate Change on Streamflow Using Climate Elasticity in the Luan River Basin, China

Hotspots of the sensitivity of the land surface hydrological cycle to climate change

Variations in runoff, sediment load, and their relationship for a major sediment source area of the Jialing River basin, southern China

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