Effects of climate change on surface water management of Seyhan basin, Turkey

Selek, Bülent; Tuncok, I. Kaan

doi:10.1007/s10651-013-0260-5

Cited by 17 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Sen et al (2008) aimed a research to predict future climate and its possible impact on water resources and agricultural water use in Seyhan basin for the period 2071-2100 by using climate model RegCM3, Topcu (2013) carried out a thesis to assess the drought in Seyhan Basin and analyzed monthly precipitation for SPI and used outputs for L-moments. Selek & Tuncok (2014) conducted a study to determine the basis for climate change adaptation of water resources management policies in Seyhan River basin. It was determined that even though there was no water stress in Seyhan basin in 2010, many parts of the basin were expected to suffer significant shortages over the coming years.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought analysis of the Seyhan Basin by using standardized precipitation ındex (spı) and l-moments

SEÇKİN¹

2016

Tarım Bilimleri Dergisi

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The aim of this study is to monitor drought in the Seyhan Basin by using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) based on a long term monthly precipitation of 11 meteorological stations and secondly, to also carry out regional frequency analysis using the index flood procedure coupled with the L-moments method based on recorded precipitation data of the most drought month for each year acquired from Standardized Precipitation Index method for each station. The SPI values of each station for 3, 6, 9 and 12-month time scales were calculated. According to the results, all stations are on the boundary of drought. Research results show that the wettest station is Ulukışla and the most drought station is Karaisalı with respect to the average SPI values. According to the drought frequency values, however, the station having the highest drought occurrence frequency is the Karaisalı station, whereas the station having the lowest drought frequency is the Tufanbeyli station. Results show that the Seyhan Basin is on the boundary of drought and mildly wet. Drought occurrence frequency is 47.7%. L-moments method was used to define homogenous regions. Homogenous regions for 3 and 6-month time scales minimum precipitation series couldn't be obtained while homogenous regions for 9-month time scale minimum precipitation series were obtained only by dividing the whole basin into two parts. The whole basin is homogenous for the 12-month time scale minimum precipitation series. The Pearson Type 3 distribution is found to be most suitable for two homogenous sub-basins regarding 9-month time scale minimum precipitation series, whereas the Generalized Normal distribution is found to be most suitable for the whole basin with respect to 12-month time scale minimum precipitation series.

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mentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought analysis of the Seyhan Basin by using standardized precipitation ındex (spı) and l-moments

SEÇKİN¹

2016

Tarım Bilimleri Dergisi

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“…For example, the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources Project, the Seyhan Basin Pollution Prevention Action Plan and the Seyhan Basin Sectoral Water Allocation Plan are among the studies completed by the General Directorate of Water Management [35,36] and the Water Management and Preparation of Basin Protection Action Plan is one performed by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey [37]. Further examples to be mentioned are given by Dikici et al [38] who studied drought analysis with the Palmer drought index, Selek and Tuncok [39] who examined the effect of climate change on surface water management, and Topaloglu [40] who determined the best-fit probability distribution functions for flow and precipitation in the basin. It should be emphasized that these are only a very short list of the studies conducted in the Seyhan River basin.…”

Section: Seyhan River Basin and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial Drought Characterization for Seyhan River Basin in the Mediterranean Region of Turkey

Cavus

Aksoy

2019

Water

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Drought is a natural phenomenon that has great impacts on the economy, society and environment. Therefore, the determination, monitoring and characterization of droughts are of great significance in water resources planning and management. The purpose of this study is to investigate the spatial drought characterizations of Seyhan River basin in the Eastern Mediterranean region of Turkey. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) was calculated from monthly precipitation data at 12-month time scale for 19 meteorological stations scattered over the river basin. Drought with the largest severity in each year is defined as the critical drought of the year. Frequency analysis was applied on the critical drought to determine the best-fit probability distribution function by utilizing the total probability theorem. The sole frequency analysis is insufficient in drought studies unless it is numerically related to other factors such as the severity, duration and intensity. Also, SPI is a technical tool and thus difficult to understand at first glance by end-users and decision-makers. Precipitation deficit defined as the difference between precipitation threshold at SPI = 0 and critical precipitation is therefore more preferable due to its usefulness and for being physically more meaningful to the users. Precipitation deficit is calculated and mapped for 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-month drought durations and 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50- and 100-year return periods at 12-month time scale from the frequency analysis of the critical drought severity. The inverse distance weighted (IDW) interpolation technique is used for the spatial distribution of precipitation deficit over the Seyhan River basin. The spatial and temporal characteristics of drought suggest that the Seyhan River Basin in the Eastern Mediterranean region of Turkey experiences quite mild and severe droughts in terms of precipitation deficit. The spatial distribution would alter greatly with increasing return period and drought duration. While the coastal part of the basin is vulnerable to droughts at all return periods and drought durations, the northern part of the basin would be expected to be less affected by the drought. Another result reached in this study is that it could be common for one point in the basin to suffer dry conditions, whilst surrounding points in the same basin experience normal or even humid conditions. This reinforces the importance of spatial analysis over the basin under investigation instead of the point-scale temporal analysis made in each of the meteorological stations. With the use of spatial mapping of drought, it is expected that the destructive and irreversible effects of hydrological droughts can be realized in a more physical sense.

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“…Göncü (2005) relates this to the increasing evapotranspiration under climate change by using a hydrological simulation model. More recently, Selek and Tuncok (2014) reported that significant shortages are likely to be observed in Cukurova Basin based on the regionalized results of a GCM. Evans (2005) suggests that these effects are likely to be higher in the second half of the twenty-first century by analysing the results of 18 different GCM models for the Middle East, including Turkey.…”

Section: Effects On Technical Conditions Of Agricultural Productionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and agriculture: an integrated approach to evaluate economy-wide effects for Turkey

Dudu

Cakmak

2017

Climate and Development

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This paper quantifies the economic effects of climate change on Turkey. We use an integrated framework that combines an economy-wide model with a crop water requirement model to analyse the probable effects of the B1 scenario of the intergovernmental panel on climate change which is comparable to representative concentration pathway 4.5 scenario. Results suggest that the economic effects of climate change will not have serious economic effects over the period up to late 2030s, but the negative effects dominate the economy in the second half of this century. This provides Turkey an excellent opportunity to increase resilience and implement appropriate adaptation policies. The impact of climate change varies across regions. Agriculture and food production will be heavily affected. Especially irrigated production will decline as water stress increases. Significant decline in agricultural production is transmitted throughout the economy and reduces national welfare. Part of agriculture's decline is compensated by imports, thus deteriorating Turkey's food trade balance.

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Effects of climate change on surface water management of Seyhan basin, Turkey

Cited by 17 publications

References 16 publications

Drought analysis of the Seyhan Basin by using standardized precipitation ındex (spı) and l-moments

Drought analysis of the Seyhan Basin by using standardized precipitation ındex (spı) and l-moments

Spatial Drought Characterization for Seyhan River Basin in the Mediterranean Region of Turkey

Climate change and agriculture: an integrated approach to evaluate economy-wide effects for Turkey

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