Effects of climate change on tidal marshes along a latitudinal gradient in California

Thorne, Karen M.; MacDonald, Glen M.; Ambrose, R. F.; Buffington, Kevin J.; Freeman, Chase M.; Janousek, Christopher N.; Brown, Lauren N.; Holmquist, James R.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Powelson, Katherine W.; Barnard, Patrick L.; Takekawa, John Y.

doi:10.3133/ofr20161125

Cited by 31 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 16 publications

(19 reference statements)

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“…To date, local insights are best acquired through finescale SLR assessments conducted for individual wetland sites. Our SLR response predictions corroborate their overall finding that these sites will experience conversion of mid and high marsh to low marsh with modest SLR projections (0.44 m) and gains of intertidal mudflat and subtidal habitat at the expense of vegetated marsh with high SLR projections (1.66 m) (Thorne et al, 2016). Detailed field collections of physical and biological data were used to parameterize the processbased WARMER model (Swanson et al, 2014) to predict SLR response for a subset area within the study sites.…”

Section: Model Uncertainty and Sensitivitysupporting

confidence: 76%

“…Detailed field collections of physical and biological data were used to parameterize the processbased WARMER model (Swanson et al, 2014) to predict SLR response for a subset area within the study sites. Mugu Lagoon is estimated to become 100% intertidal mudflat with 1.66 m SLR (Thorne et al, 2016), whereas we predict the future habitat composition to be 50% intertidal mudflat and 25% Specifically, projections for Upper Newport Bay by Thorne et al (2016) indicate that 60% of the wetland area will be converted to subtidal with 1.66 m SLR, and this study estimates a total of 57% subtidal under the same SLR scenario.…”

Section: Model Uncertainty and Sensitivitymentioning

confidence: 64%

Section: Model Uncertainty and Sensitivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This is exemplified by the work of Thorne et al (2016Thorne et al ( , 2018 for several wetland sites in southern California including Upper Newport Bay, Mugu Lagoon, and Tijuana River Estuary. Specifically, projections for Upper Newport Bay by Thorne et al (2016) indicate that 60% of the wetland area will be converted to subtidal with 1.66 m SLR, and this study estimates a total of 57% subtidal under the same SLR scenario. Our SLR response predictions corroborate their overall finding that these sites will experience conversion of mid and high marsh to low marsh with modest SLR projections (0.44 m) and gains of intertidal mudflat and subtidal habitat at the expense of vegetated marsh with high SLR projections (1.66 m) (Thorne et al, 2016).…”

Section: Model Uncertainty and Sensitivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evaluating regional resiliency of coastal wetlands to sea level rise through hypsometry‐based modeling

Doughty

Cavanaugh

Ambrose

et al. 2018

Global Change Biology

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Sea level rise (SLR) threatens coastal wetlands worldwide, yet the fate of individual wetlands will vary based on local topography, wetland morphology, sediment dynamics, hydrologic processes, and plant‐mediated feedbacks. Local variability in these factors makes it difficult to predict SLR effects across wetlands or to develop a holistic regional perspective on SLR response for a diversity of wetland types. To improve regional predictions of SLR impacts to coastal wetlands, we developed a model that addresses the scale‐dependent factors controlling SLR response and accommodates different levels of data availability. The model quantifies SLR‐driven habitat conversion within wetlands across a region by predicting changes in individual wetland hypsometry. This standardized approach can be applied to all wetlands in a region regardless of data availability, making it ideal for modeling SLR response across a range of scales. Our model was applied to 105 wetlands in southern California that spanned a broad range of typology and data availability. Our findings suggest that if wetlands are confined to their current extents, the region will lose 12% of marsh habitats (vegetated marsh and unvegetated flats) with 0.6 m of SLR (projected for 2050) and 48% with 1.7 m of SLR (projected for 2100). Habitat conversion was more drastic in wetlands with larger proportions of marsh habitats relative to subtidal habitats and occurred more rapidly in small lagoons relative to larger sites. Our assessment can inform management of coastal wetland vulnerability, improve understanding of the SLR drivers relevant to individual wetlands, and highlight significant data gaps that impede SLR response modeling across spatial scales. This approach augments regional SLR assessments by considering spatial variability in SLR response drivers, addressing data gaps, and accommodating wetland diversity, which will provide greater insights into regional SLR response that are relevant to coastal management and restoration efforts.

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Section: Model Uncertainty and Sensitivitysupporting

confidence: 76%

Section: Model Uncertainty and Sensitivitymentioning

confidence: 64%

Section: Model Uncertainty and Sensitivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Model Uncertainty and Sensitivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Evaluating regional resiliency of coastal wetlands to sea level rise through hypsometry‐based modeling

Doughty

Cavanaugh

Ambrose

et al. 2018

Global Change Biology

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“…The grassland habitat in the Sacramento Valley may decline by 1-20% by 2070 due to warmer winter temperatures and variable precipitation [60]. The eastern edge of the Central Valley might become climatically unsuitable for grassland habitats including valley oak under drier conditions and the northern Central Valley to a large degree may become unsuitable for such habitats under wetter conditions [61]. It is estimated that 24-59% of current California foothill, valley forests, and woodlands will not be climatically suitable for oak woodlands by the end of the century.…”

Section: California Agricultural Vulnerability To Climate Risksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Trends and Impacts on California Agriculture: A Detailed Review

et al. 2018

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Abstract:California is a global leader in the agricultural sector and produces more than 400 types of commodities. The state produces over a third of the country's vegetables and two-thirds of its fruits and nuts. Despite being highly productive, current and future climate change poses many challenges to the agricultural sector. This paper provides a summary of the current state of knowledge on historical and future trends in climate and their impacts on California agriculture. We present a synthesis of climate change impacts on California agriculture in the context of: (1) historic trends and projected changes in temperature, precipitation, snowpack, heat waves, drought, and flood events; and (2) consequent impacts on crop yields, chill hours, pests and diseases, and agricultural vulnerability to climate risks. Finally, we highlight important findings and directions for future research and implementation. The detailed review presented in this paper provides sufficient evidence that the climate in California has changed significantly and is expected to continue changing in the future, and justifies the urgency and importance of enhancing the adaptive capacity of agriculture and reducing vulnerability to climate change. Since agriculture in California is very diverse and each crop responds to climate differently, climate adaptation research should be locally focused along with effective stakeholder engagement and systematic outreach efforts for effective adoption and implementation. The expected readership of this paper includes local stakeholders, researchers, state and national agencies, and international communities interested in learning about climate change and California's agriculture.

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Sea‐level rise, habitat loss, and potential extirpation of a salt marsh specialist bird in urbanized landscapes

Rosencranz

Thorne

Buffington

et al. 2018

Ecology and Evolution

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Sea‐level rise (SLR) impacts on intertidal habitat depend on coastal topology, accretion, and constraints from surrounding development. Such habitat changes might affect species like Belding's savannah sparrows (Passerculus sandwichensis beldingi; BSSP), which live in high‐elevation salt marsh in the Southern California Bight. To predict how BSSP habitat might change under various SLR scenarios, we first constructed a suitability model by matching bird observations with elevation. We then mapped current BSSP breeding and foraging habitat at six estuarine sites by applying the elevation‐suitability model to digital elevation models. To estimate changes in digital elevation models under different SLR scenarios, we used a site‐specific, one‐dimensional elevation model (wetland accretion rate model of ecosystem resilience). We then applied our elevation‐suitability model to the projected digital elevation models. The resulting maps suggest that suitable breeding and foraging habitat could decline as increased inundation converts middle‐ and high‐elevation suitable habitat to mudflat and subtidal zones. As a result, the highest SLR scenario predicted that no suitable breeding or foraging habitat would remain at any site by 2100 and 2110. Removing development constraints to facilitate landward migration of high salt marsh, or redistributing dredge spoils to replace submerged habitat, might create future high salt marsh habitat, thereby reducing extirpation risk for BSSP in southern California.

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Effects of climate change on tidal marshes along a latitudinal gradient in California

Cited by 31 publications

References 16 publications

Evaluating regional resiliency of coastal wetlands to sea level rise through hypsometry‐based modeling

Evaluating regional resiliency of coastal wetlands to sea level rise through hypsometry‐based modeling

Climate Change Trends and Impacts on California Agriculture: A Detailed Review

Sea‐level rise, habitat loss, and potential extirpation of a salt marsh specialist bird in urbanized landscapes

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