Effects of Climate Change and Heterogeneity of Local Climates on the Development of Malaria Parasite (Plasmodium vivax) in Moscow Megacity Region

Mironova, Varvara; Shartova, Natalia; Beljaev, A. E.; Varentsov, Mikhail; Grishchenko, Mikhail

doi:10.3390/ijerph16050694

Cited by 21 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 28 publications

(40 reference statements)

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“…• T • C (14 • C) is the lowest temperature threshold below which Dirofilaria development within a mosquito vector does not occur; • 130 degrees/days is "a sum of effective temperatures" (SET) or "growing degree day" (adopted in several models in the West) needed for Dirofilaria larvae to reach infectivity. The concept of SET was originally developed and successfully applied in Russia in the control of malaria [65]. This approach was applied to other vector-borne diseases as well, for example, for cutaneous leishmaniasis [66].…”

Section: Control and Prevention Of Dirofilariasis In The Russian Fedementioning

confidence: 99%

Anthology of Dirofilariasis in Russia (1915–2017)

et al. 2020

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Dirofilariasis is a helminths vector-borne disease caused by two species of Dirofolaria—D. repens and D. immitis. The former is overwhelmingly associated with human dirofilariasis. The vector of the worm are mosquitoes of the family Culicidae (largely Culex, Aedes and Anopheles). The definitive hosts of Dirofilaria are dogs and to a lesser extent cats. Humans are an accidental host. A total of 1200 human cases caused by Dirofilaria were registered in the territory of the ex-USSR during the period 1915–2016. Zonal differences have been seen in the prevalence of infected dogs and mosquitoes. Studies undertaken in the southern part of the Russian Federation (RF) revealed the prevalence of Dirofilaria in dogs to be 20.8% with wild variations of larva density. Studies carried out in the central part of the RF found that the prevalence of parasites in dogs was 4.1%. Aedes mosquitoes were infected less than Culex and Anopheles mosquitoes. The latter were infected by D. repens more often than Culex and Aedes. Zonal differences were also traced in regard to Dirofilaria prevalence in humans, thus allowing identification of three zones of risk of infection (low, moderate, and stable), reflected in a series of constructed maps. Although Dirofilariasis was known on the territory of Russia from 1915, only sporadic cases of the disease were reported occasionally. Its number was showed an increasing trend only during the 1980s–1990s, reaching the level of hundreds of cases. The majority of cases were confined to the southern parts of Russia with geographic coordinates of 43°–45° on the northern latitude. Comparison of the timing of the global trend of climate warming during the 1990s with the temporal pattern of Dirofilaria on the territory of Russia during the same period demonstrated a close association between two phenomena. With the continuous process of global climate warming, the incidence of dirofilariasis both in man and dogs goes unabated exemplified by the territorial expansion of the disease northwards and eastwards attaining the latitude of 56°–57° on the northern latitude in the European and Asian parts of Russia. It appears that within the period of the last 20–25 years, the population at risk has doubled. Under these circumstances, dirofilariases in Russia should be considered as an emerging public health problem necessitating the establishment of a comprehensive epidemiological monitoring system with strong entomological and veterinary components. Based on the results obtained, an appropriate control intervention could be developed.

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Section: Control and Prevention Of Dirofilariasis In The Russian Fedementioning

confidence: 99%

Anthology of Dirofilariasis in Russia (1915–2017)

et al. 2020

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“…An outbreak of vivax malaria in Moscow region has developed amid exceptionally favourable weather conditions for the vivax pathogen's extrinsic development. It was previously demonstrated that by the start of the 21st Century, conditions for malaria transmission in Moscow region improved compared with 1970-80s [51]. The most dramatic changes in the sums of effective temperatures and duration of season of effective mosquito infectivity have occurred since the mid-1990s, which is consistent with general climatic warming in Moscow region [27].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 68%

“…For the purpose of malaria, the method has been recommended by the WHO [50,51]. According to Moshkovsky, extrinsic development of P. vivax requires the accumulated sum of 105 degree-days above the threshold of 14.5 ℃.…”

Section: Climate Favourability Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Re-introduction of vivax malaria in a temperate area (Moscow region, Russia): a geographic investigation

Mironova

Shartova

Beljaev

et al. 2020

Malar J

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Background: Between 1999 and 2008 Russia experienced a flare-up of transmission of vivax malaria following its massive importation with more than 500 autochthonous cases in European Russia, the Moscow region being the most affected. The outbreak waned soon after a decrease in importation in mid-2000s and strengthening the control measures. Compared with other post-eradication epidemics in Europe this one was unprecedented by its extension and duration. Methods: The aim of this study is to identify geographical determinants of transmission. The degree of favourability of climate for vivax malaria was assessed by measuring the sum of effective temperatures and duration of season of effective infectivity using data from 22 weather stations. For geospatial analysis, the locations of each of 405 autochthonous cases detected in Moscow region have been ascertained. A MaxEnt method was used for modelling the territorial differentiation of Moscow region according to the suitability of infection re-emergence based on the statistically valid relationships between the distribution of autochthonous cases and environmental and climatic factors. Results: In 1999-2004, in the beginning of the outbreak, meteorological conditions were extremely favourable for malaria in 1999, 2001 and 2002, especially within the borders of the city of Moscow and its immediate surroundings. The greatest number of cases occurred at the northwestern periphery of the city and in the adjoining rural areas. A significant role was played by rural construction activities attracting migrant labour, vegetation density and landscape division. A cutoff altitude of 200 m was observed, though the factor of altitude did not play a significant role at lower altitudes. Most likely, the urban heat island additionally amplified malaria re-introduction. Conclusion: The malariogenic potential in relation to vivax malaria was high in Moscow region, albeit heterogeneous. It is in Moscow that the most favourable conditions exist for vivax malaria re-introduction in the case of a renewed importation. This recent event of large-scale re-introduction of vivax malaria in a temperate area can serve as a case study for further research.

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“…Sophisticated spatial interpolation is needed to satisfy the interests of stakeholders (Taheri-Shahraiyni and Sodoudi 2017; Beck et al 2018). This complication is rather unfortunate because the lack of knowledge about local temperature variations might impede identification of ecosystem refugia (e.g., Gregg et al 2003;Dobrowski 2011;Miles and Esau 2016;Bois et al 2018) as well as of environmental and health risks (e.g., Buscail et al 2012;Hjort et al 2016;Varentsov et al 2018;Mironova et al 2019). Detailed temperature maps are also required to optimize urban green space and urban comfort (e.g., Fernández et al 2015;Zhang et al 2017) and, more broadly, to improve urban management (e.g., Shao et al 1997;Szymanowski and Kryza 2009;Zhang et al 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

High-Resolution Temperature Mapping by Geostatistical Kriging with External Drift from Large-Eddy Simulations

Varentsov

Esau²,

Wolf³

2020

Monthly Weather Review

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Detailed temperature maps are required in various applications. Any temperature interpolation over complex terrain must account for differences in land cover and elevation. Local circulations and other small-scale factors can also perturb the temperature. This study considers the surface air temperature T mapping with geostatistical kriging. The kriging methods are implemented for both T and temperature anomalies ΔT, defined as difference between T at a given location and T at the same elevation in the free atmosphere. The study explores the parallelized atmospheric large-eddy simulation (LES) model (PALM) as a source for variogram and external drift in the kriging methods. Ten kriging methods for the temperature mapping have been considered: ordinary kriging (OK) of T and ΔT with variogram derived from the observations (methods 1 and 2, correspondingly); OK of T and ΔT with variogram derived from LES data (3 and 4); universal kriging with external drift (KED) that utilizes the LES data (5 and 6); a weighted combination of KED of T and ΔT (method 7); and methods 5, 6, and 7 enhanced with additional “virtual” points in remote areas (methods 8, 9, and 10). These 10 methods are evaluated for eight typical weather situations observed in Bergen, Norway. Our results demonstrate considerable added value of the LES information for the detailed meteorological temperature mapping. The LES data improve both the variogram and the resulting temperature maps, especially in the remote mountain parts of the domain and along the coast.

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Effects of Climate Change and Heterogeneity of Local Climates on the Development of Malaria Parasite (Plasmodium vivax) in Moscow Megacity Region

Cited by 21 publications

References 28 publications

Anthology of Dirofilariasis in Russia (1915–2017)

Anthology of Dirofilariasis in Russia (1915–2017)

Re-introduction of vivax malaria in a temperate area (Moscow region, Russia): a geographic investigation

High-Resolution Temperature Mapping by Geostatistical Kriging with External Drift from Large-Eddy Simulations

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