Effects of climate change and variability on population dynamics in a long‐lived shorebird

Pol, Martijn van de; Vindenes, Yngvild; Sæther, Bernt‐Erik; Engen, Steinar; Ens, Bruno J.; Oosterbeek, Kees; Tinbergen, Joost M.

doi:10.1890/09-0410.1

Cited by 126 publications

(121 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…In contrast, fecundity in both high-and low-quality habitat is negatively associated with winter temperature, again showing a nonlinear relationship (convex; figure 1b(iii)). Other environmental sources (food stocks and flooding events) were also found to affect the between-year variation in demographic rates, and substantial unexplained variation remained (29 -68% [35]). …”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…From 1983 to 2007, we studied a breeding population of oystercatchers on the Dutch island of Schiermonnikoog (53829 0 N, 6814 0 W), which is declining by approximately 5 per cent per year [35]. An intensive colour-ringing programme was initiated to mark all non-breeders, breeders and offspring.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(e) Oystercatcher population model The technical details of the oystercatcher population model are described in van de Pol et al [35]; here, we summarize its main characteristics (figure 1). The asexual stage-structured stochastic population model has the form [49]:…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It has even been suggested that an increasing temporal autocorrelation and variability might be an intrinsic property of climate systems approaching a critical tipping point [32,33]. Changes in each climate aspect (mean, variability or noise colour) may affect population dynamics via different mechanisms and can result in either higher or lower extinction risk [12,34,35]. Consequently, for predicting the impact of future climate change, we need to identify which aspect of change in environmental variables is most important, and under which circumstances.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previously, we used 24 years of demographic data to identify how oystercatchers' survival and fecundity depend on winter temperature and other environmental variables [35]. We showed how this population's extinction risk depends on both the mean and interannual variability of winter temperature, but ignored the role of environmental autocorrelation (noise was assumed to be white).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Poor environmental tracking can make extinction risk insensitive to the colour of environmental noise

et al. 2011

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The relative importance of environmental colour for extinction risk compared with other aspects of environmental noise (mean and interannual variability) is poorly understood. Such knowledge is currently relevant, as climate change can cause the mean, variability and temporal autocorrelation of environmental variables to change. Here, we predict that the extinction risk of a shorebird population increases with the colour of a key environmental variable: winter temperature. However, the effect is weak compared with the impact of changes in the mean and interannual variability of temperature. Extinction risk was largely insensitive to noise colour, because demographic rates are poor in tracking the colour of the environment. We show that three mechanisms-which probably act in many species-can cause poor environmental tracking: (i) demographic rates that depend nonlinearly on environmental variables filter the noise colour, (ii) demographic rates typically depend on several environmental signals that do not change colour synchronously, and (iii) demographic stochasticity whitens the colour of demographic rates at low population size. We argue that the common practice of assuming perfect environmental tracking may result in overemphasizing the importance of noise colour for extinction risk. Consequently, ignoring environmental autocorrelation in population viability analysis could be less problematic than generally thought.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Poor environmental tracking can make extinction risk insensitive to the colour of environmental noise

et al. 2011

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Demography of an endangered, long‐lived fish: Informing management options in the face of cyclic and stochastic climate variation

Belk

Tuckfield²

2019

Population Ecology

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June sucker (Chasmistes liorus) is a long-lived, endangered fish endemic to Utah Lake, Utah. For several decades June sucker have failed to recruit sufficient numbers to the adult size classes such that the current wild population consists of a small number of old adults and it continues to decline. Vital rates of June sucker are influenced by climate-driven variation in lake level and inflow from the Provo River. We used population projection matrix modeling to assess effects of cyclic and stochastic environmental variation on population growth trajectories of June sucker in Utah Lake. The stable stage distribution is dominated by stage 1 individuals (93% of the total population) in contrast to the current situation where old age classes are the most abundant. Total population size is highly influenced by the stochastic component of climate variation; whereas, the adult population of June sucker closely tracks the systematic drought cycle. If changes in survival of larvae and juveniles can be coordinated such that positive changes in both parameters can occur somewhat simultaneously, then each parameter would only have to be increased by a factor of about 8.8 to achieve sustainable population growth (compared to a 77-fold increase for each parameter separately). Stochastic climatic variation has relatively little long-term effect on population growth. However, the multidecadal cyclic pattern of lake level and river discharge imposes a similar pattern on population growth rates of the June sucker, such that during some periods, populations decline even when the long-term trend is positive. K E Y W O R D SChasmistes liorus, drought cycle, periodic life history strategy, population projection matrix, stochastic climate variation

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Compounding effects of climate change reduce population viability of a montane amphibian

Kissel

Palen

Ryan

et al. 2018

Ecological Applications

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Anthropogenic climate change presents challenges and opportunities to the growth, reproduction, and survival of individuals throughout their life cycles. Demographic compensation among life‐history stages has the potential to buffer populations from decline, but alternatively, compounding negative effects can lead to accelerated population decline and extinction. In montane ecosystems of the U.S. Pacific Northwest, increasing temperatures are resulting in a transition from snow‐dominated to rain‐dominated precipitation events, reducing snowpack. For ectotherms such as amphibians, warmer winters can reduce the frequency of critical minimum temperatures and increase the length of summer growing seasons, benefiting post‐metamorphic stages, but may also increase metabolic costs during winter months, which could decrease survival. Lower snowpack levels also result in wetlands that dry sooner or more frequently in the summer, increasing larval desiccation risk. To evaluate how these challenges and opportunities compound within a species’ life history, we collected demographic data on Cascades frog (Rana cascadae) in Olympic National Park in Washington state to parameterize stage‐based stochastic matrix population models under current and future (A1B, 2040s, and 2080s) environmental conditions. We estimated the proportion of reproductive effort lost each year due to drying using watershed‐specific hydrologic models, and coupled this with an analysis that relates 15 yr of R. cascadae abundance data with a suite of climate variables. We estimated the current population growth (λs) to be 0.97 (95% CI 0.84–1.13), but predict that λs will decline under continued climate warming, resulting in a 62% chance of extinction by the 2080s because of compounding negative effects on early and late life history stages. By the 2080s, our models predict that larval mortality will increase by 17% as a result of increased pond drying, and adult survival will decrease by 7% as winter length and summer precipitation continue to decrease. We find that reduced larval survival drives initial declines in the 2040s, but further declines in the 2080s are compounded by decreases in adult survival. Our results demonstrate the need to understand the potential for compounding or compensatory effects within different life history stages to exacerbate or buffer the effects of climate change on population growth rates through time.

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Effects of climate change and variability on population dynamics in a long‐lived shorebird

Cited by 126 publications

References 54 publications

Poor environmental tracking can make extinction risk insensitive to the colour of environmental noise

Poor environmental tracking can make extinction risk insensitive to the colour of environmental noise

Demography of an endangered, long‐lived fish: Informing management options in the face of cyclic and stochastic climate variation

Compounding effects of climate change reduce population viability of a montane amphibian

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