Effects of climate and land use changes on stream flow of Chitral river basin of northern highland Hindu-Kush region of Pakistan

Ahmad, Shakeel; Jia, Haifeng; Chen, Zhenxia; Li, Qian; Yin, Dingkun; Israr, Muhammad; Hayat, Waseem; Bilal, Hazrat; Ahmed, Rasheed; Ashraf, Anam

doi:10.1016/j.jher.2021.08.001

Cited by 8 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…Our reconstruction reveals that dry years are getting drier over the past four centuries, implying increasing drought risks. This result is disconcerting, amidst projections of increased precipitation and floods for the basin as reported in the literature (S. Ahmad et al, 2021). The main moisture source for the basin is western disturbances in the Mediterranean Sea, which have been projected to occur more frequently in the Karakoram (Ridley et al, 2013).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 81%

“…Despite the overall projected drying trend in the Indus Basin, little change has been observed in annual precipitation in the Indus headwaters over the past decades (Khattak et al., 2011), and most climate models project an increase in precipitation in the Kabul River particularly (Iqbal et al., 2018). The combination of higher precipitation and enhanced snowmelt due to warming is thus projected to increase flood frequency and intensity in the Kabul River Basin (Iqbal et al., 2018; S. Ahmad et al., 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Increasing Drought Risks Over the Past Four Centuries Amidst Projected Flood Intensification in the Kabul River Basin (Afghanistan and Pakistan)—Evidence From Tree Rings

Khan

Nguyen

Galelli

et al. 2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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The Indus River system is one of the largest basins in the world (Best, 2019). Yet, owing to the extensive human-made water storage and withdrawal infrastructure along its course, the river is nearly depleted (Sharma et al., 2010). Shared by four countries-Pakistan, Afghanistan, China, and India-the basin supports a population of about 300 million people (Laghari et al., 2012). Among these, the semi-arid countries of Afghanistan and Pakistan are particularly reliant on the Indus, and are facing acute water and food shortages as well as threats of transboundary water conflicts (Akhtar & Iqbal, 2017;Atef et al., 2019). Located in the Indus headwaters, and originated from the Hindu Kush-Karakoram Mountains, the Kabul River is an important tributary of the Indus, accounting for about 10% of the annual flow and supplying water directly to the Afghan capital, Kabul (Lashkaripour & Hussaini, 2008). The Kabul River has experienced intensive human-induced environmental changes in the last 40-years (Ahmadullah & Dongshik, 2015), and new dams are planned to be built (Yousaf, 2017). Development in both the Afghanistan's and Pakistan's sides of the river, such as dam construction and increase in built-up and cultivated areas, may worsen transboundary water conflicts (

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 81%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increasing Drought Risks Over the Past Four Centuries Amidst Projected Flood Intensification in the Kabul River Basin (Afghanistan and Pakistan)—Evidence From Tree Rings

Khan

Nguyen

Galelli

et al. 2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…Tree rings have been proven to be a reliable proxy for reconstructing historical climatic fluctuations over the last few decades. Particularly in the Karakoram-Himalayas region of northern Pakistan, the tree rings of various coniferous species have been used recently to reconstruct various climatic factors, such as precipitation [8][9][10], temperature [11][12][13], soil moisture [14], streamflow [15][16][17][18], and droughts [19]. In the Himalayas, there is a high frequency and intensity of droughts [20], whereas the primary source of precipitation in this area is the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) during summer, and mid-latitude north-westerly disturbances during winter and spring [21,22].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reconstruction of July-September standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for the Hindu Kush region of Northern Pakistan

Asad,

Adil,

Khan

et al. 2024

Environ. Res. Commun.

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The Prolonged drought resulting from global warming is considered an important factor affecting the Asia's socioeconomic growth of West Asia, with a significant impact on the dynamic forecasting of water supply and forest ecosystems. In such a scenario, Understanding future long-term drought (SPEI) changes is crucial for accurately forecasting regional drought shifts in the Hindukush region. In this study, a 517-year (1506-2022 CE) long tree-ring width chronology of the Himalayan Cedar (Cedrus deodara D. Don) from the eastern Hindukush has been developed. The July-September SPEI has revealed a positive and significant relationship (r = 0.633, p < 0.001) with tree growth, which leads to SPEI reconstruction from AD 1626 in the Hindu Kush Region. Our reconstruction model has explained 40.01% of the climate variance during the instrumental period from AD 1965 to 2018. Fourteen wet periods (≥ 3 years) were observed before the instrumental period, specifically in C.E. 1629–1635, 1638–1658, 1666–1674, 1680–1701, 1715–1724, 1770–1776, 1794–1797, 1802–1810, 1822–1846, 1850–1857, 1872–1881, 1883–1890, 1906–1914, and 1921–1937. Similarly, twelve dry summer periods were also observed in the past 339 years, such as C.E. 1659–1665, 1675–1679, 1702–1714, 1725–1769, 1777–1793, 1798–1801, 1811–1821, 1847–1849, 1858–1871, 1891–1905, 1915–1920, and 1938–1963. Nevertheless, AD 1663 was individually the wettest (with a value of 2.13), while AD 1754 was the driest (-0.99) year. The spatial correlation analysis and its comparisons with Karakoram-Himalayan drought and precipitation reconstructions have convincingly confirmed the reliability of our SPEI reconstruction. Consequently, this reconstruction can effectively serve as a proxy for large-scale drought variability in the Hindu Kush region of northern Pakistan. Our findings strongly suggest the considerable dendrochronological potential for further climatological studies in the western Hindu Kush Mountains System.

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“…Many scholars have studied Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes in different localities within the mountainous regions of Pakistan [22][23][24][25]. Most of these studies have reported a negative trend of rangeland and forest cover.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Animals Feed in Transition: Intricate Interplay of Land Use Land Cover Change and Fodder Sources in Kurram Valley, Pakistan

Hussain,

Rahman,

Ullah

et al. 2024

Resources

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Land use land cover (LULC) changes have emerged as a pivotal driver of environmental challenges in the Northwestern mountainous belts of Pakistan. These changes are increasingly recognized for their pervasive impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services. The conversion of pastures and rangelands into other land uses is a key facet of LULC change, posing a substantial threat to the availability of animal feed sources. This study aims to evaluate LULC changes and investigate their consequences on animal feed sources in the Upper Kurram Valley, located in the Koh-e-Safid mountain of Northwestern Pakistan. The study employs a multidisciplinary methodological approach that incorporates remotely sensed data, focus group discussions, interviews, and field observations. The study findings uncover a notable decline in rangeland (26.6%) and forest cover (28.7%) over a span of more than three decades (1987–2019). The shrinkage of rangeland has spurred an increased reliance on crop residues and fodder crops. The free grazing practices have been replaced by stall-feeding and controlled grazing methods. This declining rangeland resources has negatively affected animal husbandry, and the average number of livestock per household decreased from 32 in 1980 to 3.7 in 2019. In essence, this transition has not only impacted animal feed sources but also reshaped the livelihoods of local communities closely connected to animal husbandry.

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Effects of climate and land use changes on stream flow of Chitral river basin of northern highland Hindu-Kush region of Pakistan

Cited by 8 publications

References 54 publications

Increasing Drought Risks Over the Past Four Centuries Amidst Projected Flood Intensification in the Kabul River Basin (Afghanistan and Pakistan)—Evidence From Tree Rings

Increasing Drought Risks Over the Past Four Centuries Amidst Projected Flood Intensification in the Kabul River Basin (Afghanistan and Pakistan)—Evidence From Tree Rings

Reconstruction of July-September standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for the Hindu Kush region of Northern Pakistan

Animals Feed in Transition: Intricate Interplay of Land Use Land Cover Change and Fodder Sources in Kurram Valley, Pakistan

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