Effects of changing power plant NO<sub>x</sub> emissions on ozone in the eastern United States: Proof of concept

Frost, G. J.; McKeen, S. A.; Trainer, M.; Ryerson, T. B.; Neuman, J. A.; Roberts, J. M.; Swanson, Aaron L.; Holloway, J. S.; Sueper, D.; Fortin, Tara J.; Parrish, D. D.; Fehsenfeld, F. C.; Flocke, Frank; Peckham, Steven E.; Grell, Georg; Kowal, D.; Cartwright, Jon; Auerbach, Nancy A.; Habermann, Ted

doi:10.1029/2005jd006354

Cited by 241 publications

(243 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…These differing results are explained by the dominance of NO 2 as a source of ozone production in the summer but the dominance of NO as a sink to ozone in the winter. Frost et al (2006) evaluated the effects of NO x emissions from power plants on ozone concentrations in the eastern United States. The relationship between emissions reduction and ozone concentrations was complex, depending on upwind NO x concentrations.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Power plant fuel switching and air quality in a tropical, forested environment

et al. 2017

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Abstract. How a changing energy matrix for electricity production affects air quality is considered for an urban region in a tropical, forested environment. Manaus, the largest city in the central Amazon Basin of Brazil, is in the process of changing its energy matrix for electricity production from fuel oil and diesel to natural gas over an approximately 10-year period, with a minor contribution by hydropower. Three scenarios of urban air quality, specifically afternoon ozone concentrations, were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-Chem) model. The first scenario used fuel oil and diesel for electricity production, which was the reality in 2008. The second scenario was based on the fuel mix from 2014, the most current year for which data were available. The third scenario considered nearly complete use of natural gas for electricity production, which is the anticipated future, possibly for 2018. For each case, inventories of anthropogenic emissions were based on electricity generation, refinery operations, and transportation. Transportation and refinery operations were held constant across the three scenarios to focus on effects of power plant fuel switching in a tropical context. The simulated NO x and CO emissions for the urban region decrease by 89 and 55 %, respectively, after the complete change in the energy matrix. The results of the simulations indicate that a change to natural gas significantly decreases maximum afternoon ozone concentrations over the population center, reducing ozone by > 70 % for the most polluted days. The sensitivity of ozone concentrations to the fuel switchover is consistent with a NO xlimited regime, as expected for a tropical forest having high emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds, high water vapor concentrations, and abundant solar radiation. There are key differences in a shifting energy matrix in a tropical, forested environment compared to other world environments. Policies favoring the burning of natural gas in place of fuel oil and diesel have great potential for ozone reduction and improved air quality for growing urban regions located in tropical, forested environments around the world.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Power plant fuel switching and air quality in a tropical, forested environment

et al. 2017

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“…A detailed discussion of this inventory and its implementation within WRF/Chem is given by Frost et al [2006]. Briefly, hourly emissions of NO x , SO 2 , CO, speciated VOCs, NH 3 , speciated PM 2.5 , and total PM 10 were prepared for an average day in the 1999 summer ozone season (MaySeptember) on a 4 km Â 4 km grid.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An evaluation of real‐time air quality forecasts and their urban emissions over eastern Texas during the summer of 2006 Second Texas Air Quality Study field study

et al. 2009

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[1] Forecasts of ozone (O 3 ) and particulate matter (diameter less than 2.5 mm, PM 2.5 ) from seven air quality forecast models (AQFMs) are statistically evaluated against observations collected during August and September of 2006 (49 days) through the Aerometric Information Retrieval Now (AIRNow) network throughout eastern Texas and adjoining states. Ensemble O 3 and PM 2.5 forecasts created by combining the seven separate forecasts with equal weighting, and simple bias-corrected forecasts, are also evaluated in terms of standard statistical measures, threshold statistics, and variance analysis. For O 3 the models and ensemble generally show statistical skill relative to persistence for the entire region, but fail to predict high-O 3 events in the Houston region. For PM 2.5 , none of the models, or ensemble, shows statistical skill, and all but one model have significant low bias. Comprehensive comparisons with the full suite of chemical and aerosol measurements collected aboard the NOAA WP-3 aircraft during the summer 2006 Second Texas Air Quality Study and the Gulf of Mexico Atmospheric Composition and Climate Study (TexAQS II/GoMACCS) field study are performed to help diagnose sources of model bias at the surface. Aircraft flights specifically designed for sampling of Houston and Dallas urban plumes are used to determine model and observed upwind or background biases, and downwind excess concentrations that are used to infer relative emission rates. Relative emissions from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1999 National Emission Inventory (NEI-99) version 3 emissions inventory (used in two of the model forecasts) are evaluated on the basis of comparisons between observed and model concentration difference ratios. Model comparisons demonstrate that concentration difference ratios yield a reasonably accurate measure (within 25%) of relative input emissions. Boundary layer height and wind data are combined with the observed up-wind and downwind concentration differences to estimate absolute emissions. When the NEI-99 inventory is modified to include observed NO y emissions from continuous monitors and expected NO x decreases from mobile sources between 1999 and 2006, good agreement is found with those derived from the observations for both Houston and Dallas. However, the emission inventories consistently overpredict the ratio of CO to NO y . The ratios of ethylene and aromatics to NO y are reasonably consistent with observations over Dallas, but are significantly underpredicted for Houston.

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“…the SLImmertime ozone to be lower in 2007 than 2005 in most areas because of the significant reductions in NO" emissions (e.g., Frost et a\., 2006;et 2007; Fig. 10.…”

Section: Consistency Of Om) Ratio With In Situ Observationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of OMI observations to a space-based indicator of NOx and VOC controls on surface ozone formation

Duncan

Yoshida

Olson

et al. 2010

Atmospheric Environment

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Effects of changing power plant NO_x emissions on ozone in the eastern United States: Proof of concept

Cited by 241 publications

References 39 publications

Power plant fuel switching and air quality in a tropical, forested environment

Power plant fuel switching and air quality in a tropical, forested environment

An evaluation of real‐time air quality forecasts and their urban emissions over eastern Texas during the summer of 2006 Second Texas Air Quality Study field study

Application of OMI observations to a space-based indicator of NOx and VOC controls on surface ozone formation

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Effects of changing power plant NOx emissions on ozone in the eastern United States: Proof of concept

Cited by 241 publications

References 39 publications

Power plant fuel switching and air quality in a tropical, forested environment

Power plant fuel switching and air quality in a tropical, forested environment

An evaluation of real‐time air quality forecasts and their urban emissions over eastern Texas during the summer of 2006 Second Texas Air Quality Study field study

Application of OMI observations to a space-based indicator of NOx and VOC controls on surface ozone formation

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Effects of changing power plant NO_x emissions on ozone in the eastern United States: Proof of concept