Effects of autumn-winter Arctic sea ice on winter Siberian High

Abstract

The intensity of the winter Siberian High has significantly negative correlations with Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies from the previous autumn to winter seasons in the Eastern Arctic Ocean and Siberian marginal seas. Our results indicate that autumn-winter Arctic sea ice concentration and concurrent sea surface temperature anomalies are responsible for the winter Siberian High and surface air temperature anomalies over the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia and East Asia. Numerical experiments also support this conclusion, and consistently show that the low sea ice concentration causes negative surface air temperature anomalies over the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia. A mechanism is proposed to explain the association between autumn-winter sea ice concentration and winter Siberian High. Our results also show that September sea ice concentration provides a potential precursor for winter Siberian High that cannot be predicted using only tropical sea surface temperatures. In the last two decades (1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)), a strengthening trend of winter Siberian High along with a decline trend in surface air temperature in the mid-high latitudes of the Asian Continent have favored the recent frequent cold winters over East Asia. The reason for these short-term trends in winter Siberian High and surface air temperature are discussed. Arctic sea ice, Siberian High, East Asian climate, frequent cold winterCitation:

Interdecadal variations of the East Asian winter surface air temperature and possible causes

“…Namely, the positive (negative) phases of PC1 correspond to the positive (negative) SAT anomalies over the mid-high latitudes of East Asia. The above results consistently show that EOF1 is closely related to the strength of SH and the East Asian winter monsoon system, which agree well with the previous studies [5,18,37].…”

“…Eurasian snow cover anomalies can directly influence the East Asian winter SAT [15]. Besides, there is a close link between the Arctic SIC anomalies and the East Asian winter SAT [16][17][18]. Recently, lots of research have analyzed the long-term variations of East Asian winter SAT, indicating that the SAT had a notable interdecadal shift in the late 1970s, and increased markedly after that [19,20].…”

Atmospheric response to the autumn sea-ice free Arctic and its detectability

“…For example, it has been proposed that the Eurasia cold winter (Honda et al 2009), spring cooling over East Asia (Li and Wang 2013a), precipitation (Li and Wang 2013b) and intense snowfall over the North America, Europe and East Asia in recent winters (Liu et al 2012;Na et al 2012) can be attributed to the reduced autumn Arctic SIC, either by the intensified and more persistent winter Siberian High or the increased winter blockings (Wu et al 2011;Liu et al 2012;Zhang et al 2012). But the causality of the autumn Arctic SIC reduction and the winter weather events has not been proven and clearly explained yet.…”

Stratospheric response to Arctic sea ice retreat and associated planetary wave propagation changes

“…A statistical model based on Eurasian snow cover in October has proven some skill in predicting the wintertime circulation (Cohen and Jones, 2011). Wu et al (2011) show that low sea ice concentration in the Eastern Arctic and Eurasian marginal seas and thus higher sea surface temperature leads to higher surface air temperatures confined to the Barents and Kara Sea. Through a negative feedback loop this causes positive sea level pressure anomalies over northern Eurasia, thereby strengthening the Siberian High.…”