Effects of atmospheric dynamics and ocean resolution on bi-stability of the thermohaline circulation examined using the Grid ENabled Integrated Earth system modelling (GENIE) framework

Lenton, Timothy M.; Marsh, Robert; Price, Andrew; Lunt, Daniel J.; Aksenov, Yevgeny; Annan, J. D.; Cooper-Chadwick, T.; Cox, Simon J.; Edwards, Neil R.; Goswami, Sujata; Hargreaves, J. C.; Harris, Phil; Jiao, Zhuoan; Livina, Valerie N.; Payne, Anthony; Rutt, I. C.; Shepherd, J. G.; Valdes, Paul J.; Williams, G.; Williamson, Mark S.; Yool, Andrew

doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0254-9

Cited by 56 publications

(70 citation statements)

References 84 publications

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“…Such THC reorganizations play an important part in rapid climate changes recorded in Greenland during the last glacial cycle (42,43). Hysteresis of the THC has been found in all models that have been systematically tested thus far (44), from conceptual ''box'' representations of the ocean (45) to OAGCMs (46). The most complex models have yet to be systematically tested because of excessive computational cost.…”

Section: Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation (Thc) a Shutoff In North mentioning

confidence: 99%

Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system

Lenton

Held

Kriegler

et al. 2008

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

2,950

2,253

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The term ''tipping point'' commonly refers to a critical threshold at which a tiny perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system. Here we introduce the term ''tipping element'' to describe large-scale components of the Earth system that may pass a tipping point. We critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system under anthropogenic forcing, drawing on the pertinent literature and a recent international workshop to compile a short list, and we assess where their tipping points lie. An expert elicitation is used to help rank their sensitivity to global warming and the uncertainty about the underlying physical mechanisms. Then we explain how, in principle, early warning systems could be established to detect the proximity of some tipping points.Earth system ͉ tipping points ͉ climate change ͉ large-scale impacts ͉ climate policy

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Section: Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation (Thc) a Shutoff In North mentioning

confidence: 99%

Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system

Lenton

Held

Kriegler

et al. 2008

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

2,950

2,253

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“…In recent years, GENIE-1 has been used increasingly in climate and carbon cycle studies of the present, future, and past Lenton et al, 2006;Matsumoto, 2007;Ridgwell, 2007;Ridgwell et al, 2007). Also, the computational efficiency of GENIE-1 has allowed it to sweep entire parameter spaces with respect to the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) so that the model's MOC behavior is now fairly well characterized (Marsh et al, 2004).…”

Section: Rationale For Improving Genie-1mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While it is more preferable to include biogeochemical tracers as targets in the objective tuning (i.e., combine steps one and two), we were guided on practical grounds to keep the first two steps separated because objective tuning using only physical climatology fields exists already in the form of NGSA-II. Earlier tuning studies of GENIE-1 also used only physical fields (Edwards and Marsh, 2005;Lenton et al, 2006). We are also guided by the expectation that objective tuning will likely not give us the most desirable model configuration outright and that some form of subjective tuning based on expert judgment is necessary.…”

Section: Calibration and Control Run Of Mesmomentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A post-processing of the result set then yields an optimal version of the model. Previous parameter estimation techniques applied to the C-GOLDSTEIN class of problem include a Latin Hypercube sampling (Edwards and Marsh, 2005), the Ensemble Kalman Filter (Hargreaves et al, 2004), the proximal analytic centre cutting plane method (Beltran et al, 2005) and kriging (Price et al, 2007) which all seek to minimize a composite error function. The multiobjective method has the advantage that it avoids the need to select a priori the weighing factors used to evaluate the single error value.…”

Section: First Step: Multi-objective Nsga-ii Tuningmentioning

confidence: 99%

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First description of the Minnesota Earth System Model for Ocean biogeochemistry (MESMO 1.0)

et al. 2008

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Abstract.Here we describe the first version of the Minnesota Earth System Model for Ocean biogeochemistry (MESMO 1.0), an intermediate complexity model based on the Grid ENabled Integrated Earth system model (GENIE-1). As with GENIE-1, MESMO has a 3D dynamical ocean, energy-moisture balance atmosphere, dynamic and thermodynamic sea ice, and marine biogeochemistry. Main development goals of MESMO were to: (1) bring oceanic uptake of anthropogenic transient tracers within data constraints; (2) increase vertical resolution in the upper ocean to better represent near-surface biogeochemical processes; (3) calibrate the deep ocean ventilation with observed abundance of radiocarbon. We achieved all these goals through a combination of objective model optimization and subjective targeted tuning. An important new feature in MESMO that dramatically improved the uptake of CFC-11 and anthropogenic carbon is the depth dependent vertical diffusivity in the ocean, which is spatially uniform in GENIE-1. In MESMO, biological production occurs in the top two layers above the compensation depth of 100 m and is modified by additional parameters, for example, diagnosed mixed layer depth. In contrast, production in GENIE-1 occurs in a single layer with thickness of 175 m. These improvements make MESMO a wellcalibrated model of intermediate complexity suitable for investigations of the global marine carbon cycle requiring long integration time.

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“…2 The GENIE/cGENIE Earth system model 160 GENIE is an 'Earth system model of intermediate complexity' (EMIC) (Claussen et al, 2002) and is based on a modularised framework that allows different components of the Earth system, including ocean circulation, ocean biogeochemistry, deep-sea sediments and geochemistry, to be incorporated (Lenton et al, 2007). The simplified atmosphere and carbon-centric version of GENIE we usecGENIE -has been previously applied to explore and understand the interactions between biological 165 productivity, biogeochemistry and climate over a range of timescales and time periods (e.g., Ridgwell and Schmidt, 2010;Monteiro et al, 2012;Norris et al, 2013;John et al, 2014;Gibbs et al, 2015;Meyer et al, 2016;Tagliabue et al, 2016).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

EcoGEnIE 0.1: Plankton Ecology in the cGENIE Earth system model

Ward¹,

Wilson²,

Death³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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Abstract. We present an extension to the cGENIE Earth System model that explicitly accounts for the growth and interaction of an arbitrary number of plankton species. The new package ('ECOGEM') replaces the implicit, flux-based, parameterisation of the plankton community currently employed, with explicitly resolved plankton populations and ecological dynamics. In ECOGEM, any number of plankton species, with ecophysiological traits (e.g. growth and grazing rates) assigned according 5 to organism size and functional group (e.g. phytoplankton and zooplankton) can be incorporated at run-time. We illustrate the capability of the marine ecology enabled Earth system model ('EcoGE-NIE') by comparing results from one configuration of ECOGEM (with eight generic phytoplankton and zooplankton size classes) to climatological and seasonal observations. We find that the new ecological components of the model show reasonable agreement with both global-scale climatological 10 and local-scale seasonal data. We also compare EcoGENIE results to a the existing biogeochemical incarnation of cGENIE. We find that the resulting global-scale distributions of phosphate, iron, dissolved inorganic carbon, alkalinity and oxygen are similar for both iterations of the model. A slight deterioration in some fields in EcoGENIE (relative to the data) is observed, although we make no attempt to re-tune the overall marine cycling of carbon and nutrients here. The increased capa-15 bilities of EcoGENIE in this regard will enable future exploration of the ecological community on much longer timescales than have previously been examined in global ocean ecosystem models and particularly for past climates and global biogeochemical cycles.

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Effects of atmospheric dynamics and ocean resolution on bi-stability of the thermohaline circulation examined using the Grid ENabled Integrated Earth system modelling (GENIE) framework

Cited by 56 publications

References 84 publications

Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system

Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system

First description of the Minnesota Earth System Model for Ocean biogeochemistry (MESMO 1.0)

EcoGEnIE 0.1: Plankton Ecology in the cGENIE Earth system model

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