Effects of ambient temperature, relative humidity and absolute humidity on risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China

Abstract

Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) has a unique geographic distribution. It is unknown whether meteorological factors are related to the incidence of NPC. To investigate the effect of ambient temperature, relative humidity (RH), and absolute humidity (AH) on the incidence of NPC, we collected the incidence rate of NPC in 2016 and meteorological data from 2006 to 2016 from 484 cities and counties across 31 provinces in China. Generalized additive models with quasi‐Poisson regression and generalized linear models with natural cubic splines were employed respectively to elucidate the nonlinear relationships and specify the partial linear relationships. Subgroup and interactive analysis were also conducted. Temperature (R2 = 0.68, p < .001), RH (R2 = 0.47, p < .001), and AH (R2 = 0.70, p < .001) exhibited nonlinear correlations with NPC incidence rate. The risk of NPC incidence increased by 20.3% (95% confidence intervals [CI]: [18.9%, 21.7%]) per 1°C increase in temperature, by 6.3% (95% CI: [5.3%, 7.2%]) per 1% increase in RH, and by 32.2% (95% CI: [30.7%, 33.7%]) per 1 g/m3 increase in AH, between their the 25th and the 99th percentiles. In addition, the combination of low temperature and low RH was also related to increased risk (relative risk: 1.60, 95% CI: [1.18, 2.17]). Males and eastern or rural populations tended to be more vulnerable. In summary, this study suggests that ambient temperature, RH, and particularly AH are associated with the risk of NPC incidence.