Effects of Agricultural Policy Change on Maize Supply in Developing Countries: A Comparative Study of Kenya and Zambia

Nyairo, Newton; Kola, Jukka; Sumelius, John

doi:10.24102/ijafr.v2i3.353

Cited by 4 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…The study shows that rice production will increase by 0.67 tonnes as the average temperature increases by 1 o C in the short run. This study contradicts the results obtained by Nyairo (2011) there is a significant inverse association between temperature and cereal crop production. However, Pickson et al (2022) reported that temperature has no significant effect on short-run rice production in China.…”

Section: Results Of the Short-run Effects Of Climate Change On Rice P...contrasting

confidence: 99%

The impacts of climate change and smallholder farmers’ adaptive capacities on rice production in Chengdu, China: macro-micro analysis

Pickson

Boateng

2022

Environ. Res. Commun.

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Among other cultivated crops, rice is the most sensitive to climate variability over its growing season. As such, future reliance on climate conditions for rice farming calls for a wide range of strategies critical to curtailing the adverse impact of climate change on rice production. Notwithstanding, there remain considerable gaps in our knowledge of adaptive capacities among China's small-scale farmers who depend on climate conditions for farming. This study is broadly divided into two parts that are distinct but connected. The first part assessed the effects of climate change on rice production in Chengdu (China), covering the period 2000Q1-2016Q4. We show that mean rainfall and mean temperature induce rice production positively in the long and short run. While temperature variability has no significant impact on long-run rice production, it enhances Chengdu’s rice production in the short run. Rainfall variability and the interaction term between temperature and precipitation are unfavourable to rice production in the long and short run. The results reveal that fertilizer application and energy consumption inputs play a critical role in supporting rice production, although the impact of energy consumption is substantial in the short run. The second part provided a new perspective on smallholder farmers' adaptive capacities to climate change in rice production. Based on a survey of 383 rice growers in Chengdu, the results show that farmers' adaptive capabilities significantly affect rice production. To this end, we argue that the centerpiece to improving rice production under continuous climate change is for farmers to develop a high adaptive capacity to the changing climatic conditions. This can be achieved through intensive education on available adaptation strategies and their long-term implications.

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Section: Results Of the Short-run Effects Of Climate Change On Rice P...contrasting

confidence: 99%

The impacts of climate change and smallholder farmers’ adaptive capacities on rice production in Chengdu, China: macro-micro analysis

Pickson

Boateng

2022

Environ. Res. Commun.

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“…The producer surplus gain and the resultant net gain from the maize importation in the period 1983-1987 could be attributed to stable producer incomes as a result of stable pan territorial and pan seasonal maize prices in the entire country during this period. Secondly, this could be attributed to structural adjustment programs that reduced the government involvement in the maize marketing and maize price control (Nyairo, 2011;Kirimi, 2012). The structural adjustment programs possibly created the incentives for investment in the maize sub-sector, which resulted in positive maize production effects.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Maize Importation on the Economic Welfare of Maize Producers and Consumers in Kenya: A Partial Equilibrium Model Approach

Abodi

Obare

Kariuki

2022

Contemporary Agriculture

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Summary Maize imports bridge the maize supply-demand gap in Kenya. However, this does not automatically imply any positive or negative effects of such imports on the economic welfare of maize producers and consumers in the country. Nevertheless, there is a limited body of literature dealing with maize importation effects on the economic welfare of maize producers and consumers in Kenya. This paper provides the empirical evidence of maize importation effects on the economic welfare of Kenyan maize producers and consumers. For the purpose of determining such effects, time series secondary data for the period 1963–2016 (FAOSTAT, World Bank and Kenya National Bureau of Statistics) and the partial equilibrium model were used (which is suitable for measuring the effects of pricing policies on specific sectors, allowing for perfect substitutability between domestically produced and imported goods). The maize imports in Kenya were found to yield ambiguous effects on the economic welfare of both maize consumers and producers in the country. The consumer surplus calculated gained only the compensated loss in the producer surplus in 2 out of 11 points of analysis. Conversely, the producer surplus calculated gained only a compensated loss in the consumer surplus in 1 out of 11 points of analysis. The resultant net economic welfare effect of maize importation in Kenya was found negative, indicating adverse impacts on both the Kenyan maize sector and economy as a whole. To ensure the sustainability and development of the maize sector in Kenya, further maize imports are considered not feasible without compensating the losses in the country’s maize sector. Therefore, complementary reforms should be introduced to forge a link between world and consumer prices, and encourage producers to respond to production incentives. This will not only benefit maize producers and consumers, but will also facilitate the efficient allocation of resources for the improvement of the maize sub-sector competitiveness.

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“…Since the canola crop yield data are available between 2010 and 2016, we used the 2011 censuses data for this study. From this census data, socio-economic variables predicted to have the impact on crop yields were selected based on a review of the literature [1,4,14,30]. These variables are presented in Table 1.…”

Section: Sociotechnical Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The adaptive capacity of an agricultural system to extreme weather events is inherently stochastic and is predominately determined by a combination of social, economic and technological factors [24]. Access to education and capital [24], land-use inputs such as fertilizer [1,4,14,30] and available technologies like tractors [25] have all been shown to be important in determining adaptive capacity as these factors influence the way a farmer can respond to environmental problems such as drought. Historically, however, correlations between agricultural yields and technological advancements have been challenging to quantify [13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How climatic and sociotechnical factors influence crop production: a case study of canola production

Montocchio

Berg

et al. 2020

SN Appl. Sci.

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In most climate change research, agricultural yields are explained as a function of climatic and biophysical factors such as soil, rainfall and temperature. However, the increased use of integrated sensors, digital technologies and robotics within the agricultural sector has dramatically altered the way in which we produce food. Considering both the agriculture industry's continuing widespread technological innovation and a rapidly changing biophysical environment, there is a need to explore how sociotechnical and climatic variables interact to determine yield. In this paper, we present a regression model derived from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) yield data, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) climate and land capability data, and Statistics Canada Census of Agriculture databases that include sociotechnical variables such as farms that use GIS and GPS had access to high-speed internet alongside more traditional biophysical factors to predict canola (rape seed) yields in the southern prairies of Canada. We demonstrated that about 38% of canola yield variability could be explained by temperature and rainfall during the growing season (defined as 3 months of June, July and August) and access to high-speed internet, application of chemical fertilizer, fungicides and average age of farm operators. While of a preliminary nature, our results demonstrate that a better understanding of how climatic and sociotechnical factors interact is necessary to anticipate how climate change may affect the crop yield.

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Effects of Agricultural Policy Change on Maize Supply in Developing Countries: A Comparative Study of Kenya and Zambia

Cited by 4 publications

References 13 publications

The impacts of climate change and smallholder farmers’ adaptive capacities on rice production in Chengdu, China: macro-micro analysis

The impacts of climate change and smallholder farmers’ adaptive capacities on rice production in Chengdu, China: macro-micro analysis

Effects of Maize Importation on the Economic Welfare of Maize Producers and Consumers in Kenya: A Partial Equilibrium Model Approach

How climatic and sociotechnical factors influence crop production: a case study of canola production

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