Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance–elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet

Edwards, Tamsin; Fettweis, Xavier; Gagliardini, Olivier; Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Goelzer, Heiko; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Huybrechts, Philippe; Payne, Antony J.; Perego, Mauro; Price, Stephen; Quiquet, Aurélien; Ritz, Catherine

doi:10.5194/tc-8-195-2014

Cited by 87 publications

(138 citation statements)

References 44 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

133

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Based on climate projections under the A1B scenario used to force five ice sheet models, Edwards et al [103] found that the SMBelevation feedback accounts for an additional 1.8-6.9 % (95 % confidence interval) sea level rise by 2100, in agreement with the AR5.…”

Section: Greenland Ice Sheetmentioning

confidence: 63%

Recent Progress in Understanding and Projecting Regional and Global Mean Sea Level Change

Clark

Church

Gregory

et al. 2015

Curr Clim Change Rep

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Considerable progress has been made in understanding the present and future regional and global sea level in the 2 years since the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we evaluate how the new results affect the AR5's assessment of (i) historical sea level rise, including attribution of that rise and implications for the sea level budget, (ii) projections of the components and of total global mean sea level (GMSL), and (iii) projections of regional variability and emergence of the anthropogenic signal. In each of these cases, new work largely provides additional evidence in support of the AR5 assessment, providing greater confidence in those findings. Recent analyses confirm the twentieth century sea level rise, with some analyses showing a slightly smaller rate before 1990 and some a slightly larger value than reported in the AR5. There is now more evidence of an acceleration in the rate of rise. Ongoing ocean heat uptake and associated thermal expansion have continued since 2000, and are consistent with ocean thermal expansion reported in the AR5. A significant amount of heat is being stored deeper in the water column, with a larger rate of heat uptake since 2000 compared to the previous decades and with the largest storage in the Southern Ocean. The first formal detection studies for ocean thermal expansion and glacier mass loss since the AR5 have confirmed the AR5 finding of a significant anthropogenic contribution to sea level rise over the last 50 years. New projections of glacier loss from two regions suggest smaller contributions to GMSL rise from these regions than in studies assessed by the AR5; additional regional studies are required to further assess whether there are broader implications of these results. Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased surface melting, and from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased ice discharge, has accelerated. The largest estimates of acceleration in mass loss from the two ice sheets for 2003-2013 equal or exceed the acceleration of GMSL rise calculated from the satellite altimeter sea level record over the longer period of 1993-2014. However, when increased mass gain in land water storage and parts of East Antarctica, and decreased mass loss from glaciers in Alaska and some other regions are taken into account, the net acceleration in the ocean mass gain is consistent with the satellite altimeter record. New studies suggest that a marine ice sheet instability (MISI) may have been initiated in parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), but that it will affect only a limited number of ice streams in the twenty-first century. New projections of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets by 2100, including a contribution from parts of WAIS undergoing unstable retreat, suggest a contribution that falls largely within the likely range (i.e., two thirds probability) of the AR5. These new results increase confidence in the AR5 likel...

show abstract

Section: Greenland Ice Sheetmentioning

confidence: 63%

Recent Progress in Understanding and Projecting Regional and Global Mean Sea Level Change

Clark

Church

Gregory

et al. 2015

Curr Clim Change Rep

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In addition, SIA/ SSA ISMs satisfactorily simulate present-day and future GIS conditions compared with more complex ISMs (e.g. Edwards and others, 2014). For example, in the case of the main drainage areas, such as the NEGIS, SIA, hybrids, higher-order and full-Stokes all fail to accurately reproduce the observations (e.g.…”

Section: Hybrid Model Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This methodology slightly reduces the modeldata agreement achievable when using fixed surface and inverse methods together (e.g. Edwards and others, 2014;Lee and others, 2015), but it provides a more realistic temperature profile. Consequently, an unique technique to properly initialize ISMs has not yet been found (e.g.…”

Section: Ice-sheet Initializationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Seroussi and others, 2013). Here, we initialize GRISLI with a free surface simulation forced by an index method in which the ice-sheet basal drag is retrieved using an iterative inverse method (Edwards and others, 2014, and Supplementary Figure S1). This methodology slightly reduces the modeldata agreement achievable when using fixed surface and inverse methods together (e.g.…”

Section: Ice-sheet Initializationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, Greve and Herzfeld (2013) show that a SIA-only model, namely SICOPOLIS, with a high horizontal resolution of 5 km, satisfactorily reproduces the observed velocity fields in areas characterized by a complex topography and by fast-flowing conditions. Also, the hybrid SIA/SSA model GRISLI has been shown to perform very well in a GIS projection of sea-level contribution compared with full-Stokes models (Edwards and others, 2014). Compared with more comprehensive ISMs, the SIA and SIA/SSA-models suffer from various limitations and assumptions (see Section 4), however they are the only ISMs that have been coupled to climate models to date (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Ice flux evolution in fast flowing areas of the Greenland ice sheet over the 20th and 21st centuries

et al. 2017

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

ABSTRACT. This study investigates the evolution of Greenland ice sheet flux focusing on five of the main fast flowing regions (Petermann glacier, North East Greenland Ice Stream, Kangerdlugssuaq glacier, Helheim glacier and Jakobshavn glacier) in response to 20th and 21st century climate change. A hybrid (shallow ice and shallow shelf) ice-sheet model (ISM) is forced with the combined outputs of a set of seven CMIP5 models and the regional climate model MAR. The ISM simulates the present-day ice velocity pattern, topography and surface mass balance (SMB) in good agreement with observations. Except for the Kangerdlugssuaq glacier, over the 21st century all the fast-flowing areas have exhibited a decrease in ice flux as a result of a negative SMB rather than dynamical changes. Only the fronts of Kangerdlugssuaq and Helheim glaciers have shown an interannual variability driven by dynamical rather than climate changes. Finally, the results predict a substantial inland ice margin retreat by the end of the 21st century, especially along the northern coasts.

show abstract

The pattern of anthropogenic signal emergence in Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance

Fyke

Vizcaíno

Lipscomb

2014

Geophysical Research Letters

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Surface mass balance (SMB) trends influence observed Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass loss, but the component of these trends related to anthropogenic forcing is unclear. Here we study the simulated spatial pattern of emergence of an anthropogenically derived GrIS SMB signal between 1850 and 2100 using the Community Earth System Model. We find emergence timing heterogeneity, with a bimodal structure reflecting interior snowfall increases against a background of low SMB variability, and peripheral surface melting increases against a backdrop of high SMB variability. We also find a nonemerging intermediate region. We conclude that (1) a bimodal pattern of GrIS SMB change will unambiguously reflect the impact of anthropogenic forcing; (2) present‐day peripheral and interior SMB trends likely have an underlying anthropogenically forced component; (3) local emergence occurs well before emergence of a spatially integrated signal; and (4) the GrIS summit region may be an ideal location for monitoring regional/global climate change.

show abstract

Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance–elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet

Cited by 87 publications

References 44 publications

Recent Progress in Understanding and Projecting Regional and Global Mean Sea Level Change

Recent Progress in Understanding and Projecting Regional and Global Mean Sea Level Change

Ice flux evolution in fast flowing areas of the Greenland ice sheet over the 20th and 21st centuries

The pattern of anthropogenic signal emergence in Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About