Effect of the Lookback Period’s Length Used to Identify Incident Acute Myocardial Infarction on the Observed Trends on Incidence Rates and Survival

Sulo, Gerhard; Igland, Jannicke; Vollset, Stein Emil; Nygård, Ottar; Egeland, Grace M.; Ebbing, Marta; Sulo, Enxhela; Tell, Grethe S.

doi:10.1161/circoutcomes.114.001703

Cited by 19 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 27 publications

(35 reference statements)

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“…Finally, because we only had hospitalisation data from 1993 onwards, we chose to use a 10-year look-back period across all events to distinguish first from recurrent IHD hospitalisations. While a 10-year look-back period is often used and has been considered a gold standard,33 it will have resulted in a small proportion of recurrent hospitalisations (where previous events occurred >10 years prior) being misclassified as first events.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

First and recurrent ischaemic heart disease events continue to decline in New Zealand, 2005–2015

Grey

Jackson

Wells

et al. 2017

Heart

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

First and recurrent ischaemic heart disease events continue to decline in New Zealand, 2005–2015

Grey

Jackson

Wells

et al. 2017

Heart

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“…We were also able to exclude previous episodes of AMI and HF using a retrospective search of 7 years. 26 Our study has some potential limitations. Data were obtained from electronic patient administrative systems and do not include information on lifestyle indicators such as smoking, physical activity, obesity, or alcohol drinking patterns.…”

Section: Strength and Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 88%

“…Hence, the inclusion procedures of patients in the cohort were fairly consistent over the study period. We were also able to exclude previous episodes of AMI and HF using a retrospective search of 7 years …”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prognostic Impact of In‐Hospital and Postdischarge Heart Failure in Patients With Acute Myocardial Infarction: A Nationwide Analysis Using Data From the Cardiovascular Disease in Norway (CVDNOR) Project

Sulo

Igland

Nygård

et al. 2017

JAHA

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BackgroundHeart failure (HF) is a serious complication of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). We explored the excess mortality associated with HF as an early or late complication of AMI and describe changes over time in such excess mortality.Methods and ResultsAll patients hospitalized with an incident AMI and without history of prior HF hospitalization were followed up to 1 year after AMI discharge for episodes of HF. New HF episodes were classified as in‐hospital HF if diagnosed during the AMI hospitalization or postdischarge HF if diagnosed within 1 year after discharge from the incident AMI. Logistic and Cox regression models were used to explore the excess mortality associated with HF categories. Changes over time in the excess mortality were assessed by testing the interaction between HF status and study year. In‐hospital HF increased in‐hospital mortality 1.79 times (odds ratio [OR], 1.79; 95% CI: 1.68–1.91). The excess mortality associated with HF increased by 4.3 times from 2001 to 2009 (P interaction<0.001) as a consequence of a greater decline of in‐hospital mortality among AMI patients without (9% per year) compared to those with in‐hospital HF (3% per year). Postdischarge HF increased all‐cause and CVD mortality 5.98 times (hazard ratio, 5.98; 95% CI: 5.39–6.64) and 7.93 times (subhazard ratio, 7.93; 95% CI: 6.84 –9.19), respectively. The relative excess 1‐year mortality associated with HF did not change significantly over time.ConclusionsDevelopment of HF—either as an early or late complication of AMI—has a negative impact on patients' survival. Changes in the excess mortality associated with HF are driven by modest improvements in survival among AMI patients with HF as compared to those without HF.

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“…But with a long look-back period, valuable data is lost for analyses. A short lookback period, on the other hand, carries the risk of misclassifying prevalent and recurrent cases as incident cases [17,18].…”

Section: Estimation Of Incidence Rates From Administrative Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

The effect of the look-back period for estimating incidence using administrative data

Kim

Chae

Chung

et al. 2020

BMC Health Serv Res

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Background: The look-back period is needed to define baseline population for estimating incidence. However, short look-back period is known to overestimate incidence of diseases misclassifying prevalent cases to incident cases. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the impact of the various length of look-back period on the observed incidences of uterine leiomyoma, endometriosis and adenomyosis, and to estimate true incidences considering the misclassification errors in the longitudinal administrative data in Korea. Methods: A total of 319,608 women between 15 to 54 years of age in 2002 were selected from Korea National Health Insurance Services (KNHIS) cohort database. In order to minimize misclassification bias incurred when applying various length of look-back period, we used 11 years of claim data to estimate the incidence by equally setting the look-back period to 11 years for each year using prediction model. The association between the year of diagnosis and the number of prevalent cases with the misclassification rates by each look-back period was investigated. Based on the findings, prediction models on the proportion of misclassified incident cases were developed using multiple linear regression. Results: The proportion of misclassified incident cases of uterine leiomyoma, endometriosis and adenomyosis were 32.8, 10.4 and 13.6% respectively for the one-year look-back period in 2003. These numbers decreased to 6.3% in uterine leiomyoma and − 0.8% in both endometriosis and adenomyosis using all available look-back periods (11 years) in 2013. Conclusion: This study demonstrates approaches for estimating incidences considering the different proportion of misclassified cases for various length of look-back period. Although the prediction model used for estimation showed strong R-squared values, follow-up studies are required for validation of the study results.

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Effect of the Lookback Period’s Length Used to Identify Incident Acute Myocardial Infarction on the Observed Trends on Incidence Rates and Survival

Cited by 19 publications

References 27 publications

First and recurrent ischaemic heart disease events continue to decline in New Zealand, 2005–2015

First and recurrent ischaemic heart disease events continue to decline in New Zealand, 2005–2015

Prognostic Impact of In‐Hospital and Postdischarge Heart Failure in Patients With Acute Myocardial Infarction: A Nationwide Analysis Using Data From the Cardiovascular Disease in Norway (CVDNOR) Project

The effect of the look-back period for estimating incidence using administrative data

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