Effect of terrorism on demand for tourism in Kenya

Abstract

This article uses a dynamic panel data model to analyse the effects of terrorism on demand for tourism in Kenya. We use annual data from 2010 to 2013 for a widely dispersed set of 124 countries of origin covering Europe, Asia, the Americas and Africa. The result suggests that a 1% increase in fatalities significantly reduces tourist arrivals by about 0.13%. This translates to a reduction of about 2507.5 visitors per year and roughly 157.1 million Kenya Shillings lost in tourism revenue per year for every one unit increase in fatality. Other proxies for terrorism, such as incidence or casualties, have a similar effect, indicating the robustness of the results. On the other hand, previous visits have a strong and positive effect on the level of current arrivals.

Personality, Risk Perception, Benefit Sought and Terrorism Effect

“…This means that the higher one's travel confidence or the further they are along the psychographic-allocentric spectrum, the lower their risk perception, including those related to man-made hazards. The findings are of interest to the industry given the welldocumented significance of perceived risk of terrorism and political instability (Neumayer, 2004;Fletcher & Morakabati, 2008;Buigut & Amendah, 2015) as a predictor of travel behaviour.…”

The tourism-led terrorism hypothesis – evidence from Italy, Spain, UK, Germany and Turkey

“…To illustrate, it takes 13 months for tourism to recover from a terrorist attack, while it takes 21 months to recover from a disease, 24 months to recover from an environmental disaster and 27 months to recover from political unrest (Zillman, 2015). In their research of tourism and terrorism, scholars applied a qualitative (Fuchs et al, 2013;Korstanje & Clayton, 2012;Morakabati & Kapuscinski, 2016;Paraskevas & Arendell, 2007;Wolff & Larsen, 2014) and a quantitative approach (Ahlfeldt et al, 2015;Buigut & Amendah, 2016;Enders & Sandler, 1991;Fielding & Shortland, 2011;Masinde et al, 2016;Raza & Jawaid, 2013).…”

“…In addition to the fact that each country has its own distinctiveness, the influence of terrorism varies, depending on whether it is a rich, large and diversified economy, or a small, poor and more specialized economy (Bandyopadhyay et al, 2015). The major difference from the already mentioned (Goldman & Neubauer-Shani, 2017) research is seen in the fact that this work did not separate domestic and international terrorism (Ahlfeldt et al, 2015;Buigut & Amendah, 2016), but it used aggregate terrorism incidents. The reason for this is that the image of a safe destination builds on an overall stability in the country, not just the influence of domestic or international terrorism (Arana & León, 2008;Johnny & Jordan, 2007).…”

Economic effects of terrorism: Local and city considerations, priorities for research and policy

“…Understanding economic effects is especially of interest in countries where tourism is an important source of revenue, and which are also attacked, such as Greece, Spain, Turkey, and Kenya. Research on tourism in one country (Buigit & Amendah, ; Greenbaum & Hultquist, ; O'Connor, Stafford, & Gallagher, ) or a small number of countries (Drakos & Kutan, ; Enders & Sandler, ) has identified some key effects, but these studies usually do not offer greater comparability across industries or contexts. In their study of the effect of terrorism on Kenyan tourism, Buigit and Amendah () estimated the losses associated with a one‐unit rise in fatalities to be more than 2,500 visitors and close to 160 million shillings annually.…”

“…Research on tourism in one country (Buigit & Amendah, ; Greenbaum & Hultquist, ; O'Connor, Stafford, & Gallagher, ) or a small number of countries (Drakos & Kutan, ; Enders & Sandler, ) has identified some key effects, but these studies usually do not offer greater comparability across industries or contexts. In their study of the effect of terrorism on Kenyan tourism, Buigit and Amendah () estimated the losses associated with a one‐unit rise in fatalities to be more than 2,500 visitors and close to 160 million shillings annually. This demonstrated losses from tourism, but does not provide a broader picture which could help policymakers “triage.” For example, tourism could be quickly and significantly affected by terrorism, but other sectors like services could be affected slowly over time.…”