Effect of Temperature on Sowing Dates of Wheat under Arid and Semi-Arid Climatic Regions and Impact Quantification of Climate Change through Mechanistic Modeling with Evidence from Field

Abstract

Rising temperature from climate change is the most threatening factor worldwide for crop production. Sustainable wheat production is a challenge due to climate change and variability, which is ultimately a serious threat to food security in Pakistan. A series of field experiments were conducted during seasons 2013–2014 and 2014–2015 in the semi-arid (Faisalabad) and arid (Layyah) regions of Punjab-Pakistan. Three spring wheat genotypes were evaluated under eleven sowing dates from 16 October to 16 March, with an interval of 14–16 days in the two regions. Data for the model calibration and evaluation were collected from field experiments following the standard procedures and protocols. The grain yield under future climate scenarios was simulated by using a well-calibrated CERES-wheat model included in DSSAT v4.7. Future (2051–2100) and baseline (1980–2015) climatic data were simulated using 29 global circulation models (GCMs) under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. These GCMs were distributed among five quadrants of climatic conditions (Hot/Wet, Hot/Dry, Cool/Dry, Cool/Wet, and Middle) by a stretched distribution approach based on temperature and rainfall change. A maximum of ten GCMs predicted the chances of Middle climatic conditions during the second half of the century (2051–2100). The average temperature during the wheat season in a semi-arid region and arid region would increase by 3.52 °C and 3.84 °C, respectively, under Middle climatic conditions using the RCP 8.5 scenario during the second half-century. The simulated grain yield was reduced by 23.5% in the semi-arid region and 35.45% in the arid region under Middle climatic conditions (scenario). Mean seasonal temperature (MST) of sowing dates ranged from 16 to 27.3 °C, while the mean temperature from the heading to maturity (MTHM) stage was varying between 12.9 to 30.4 °C. Coefficients of determination (R2) between wheat morphology parameters and temperature were highly significant, with a range of 0.84–0.96. Impacts of temperature on wheat sown on 15 March were found to be as severe as to exterminate the crop before heading. The spikes and spikelets were not formed under a mean seasonal temperature higher than 25.5 °C. In a nutshell, elevated temperature (3–4 °C) till the end-century can reduce grain yield by about 30% in semi-arid and arid regions of Pakistan. These findings are crucial for growers and especially for policymakers to decide on sustainable wheat production for food security in the region.

Leaf rolling and leaf angle improve fog capturing and transport in wheat; adaptation for drought stress in an arid climate

“…Wheat is a major cereal crop of Pakistan and also important as a food crop (Ul Hassan et al 2021 ; Rahman et al 2021a ). It is grown in the areas that are affected by water shortage (Hussain et al 2021 ). Multan also includes in these regions where wheat crops face dry periods and fog is a common occurrence, especially during December, January, and February (Rahman et al 2018 , 2021b ; Ghafoor et al 2021 ).…”

The Use of Soil Conditioners to Ensure a Sustainable Wheat Yield under Water Deficit Conditions by Enhancing the Physiological and Antioxidant Potentials

“…Similarly, Moosavi et al [54] showed that the cultivation of cowpea with biochar enhanced the seed number per plant due to the relief of water-deficient stress and a higher phosphate and potassium content. Other studies also endorsed that biochar and nitrogen fertilizer improved the yield-related characteristics in arid climates [55,56]. On the basis of the findings from this study, it is recommended that the use of such soil conditioning materials is helpful for the sustainable production of crops in areas of limited water availability and could also be helpful for the community of the farmers for sustainable production under arid climatic conditions.…”

Impacts of heat shock on productivity and quality of Triticum aestivum L. at different growth stages

“…Grain weight decreased from control to HS and extended the HSd. This decrease in grain weight is due to the shrinking of grain fill duration with increasing temperature of 1-2 °C under the HS (Hussain et al, 2021). Losses in grain weight are obvious to limited grain fill duration with raised temperature (Narayanan, 2018).…”