Effect of Temperature and Precipitation on Acute Appendicitis Incidence in Seoul: A Time Series Regression Analysis

Abstract

Purpose This study aimed to investigate the relationship between meteorological factors, specifically temperature and precipitation, and the incidence of appendicitis in Seoul, South Korea. Methods Using data from the National Health Insurance Service spanning 2010–2020, the study analyzed 165,077 appendicitis cases in Seoul. Time series regression modeling with distributed-lag non-linear models was employed. Results Regarding acute appendicitis and daily average temperature, the incidence rate ratio (IRR) showed an increasing trend from approximately −10 °C to 10 °C. At temperatures above 10 °C, the increase was more gradual. The IRR approached a value close to 1 at temperatures below −10 °C and above 30 °C. Both total and complicated appendicitis exhibited similar trends. Increased precipitation was negatively associated with the incidence of total acute appendicitis around the 50 mm/day range, but not with complicated appendicitis. Conclusions The findings suggest that environmental factors, especially temperature, may play a role in the occurrence of appendicitis. This research underscores the potential health implications of global climate change and the need for further studies to understand the broader impacts of environmental changes on various diseases.