This study derives a predictive equation for calculating the marginal heat release rate of flashover in a compartmentalized space. Moreover, other variables (in addition to the surface area and opening area of the compartment, which are used as variables is existing studies) were derived and modified. By collecting and analyzing the results of existing flashover experiments, the thermal inertia of the compartment wall was judged to be a variable that directly affects the indoor temperature rise. An equation constructed using this variable was found to be up to 6.5% more reliable than the existing predictive equations. However, for use in design prediction, the developed equation had to be adjusted to derive values lower than the experimental results; thus, an equation that corrected the safety rate was derived. From this calculation, a design prediction equation was derived, from which flashover is predicted to occur before the time predicted in existing experiments.