This is the accepted version of the paper.This version of the publication may differ from the final published version. Methods: A prospective multicenter cohort study was performed in eight intensive care units (ICUs) in six countries. The 10 predictors (age, APACHE-II, urgent and admission category, infection, coma, sedation, morphine use, urea level, metabolic acidosis) were collected within 24 hours after ICU admission. The confusion assessment method for the Intensive Care Unit (CAM-ICU) was used to identify ICU delirium. CAM-ICU screening compliance and inter-rater reliability measurements were used to secure the quality of the data.
Permanent repository linkResults: 2,852 adult ICU patients were screened of which 1,824 (64%) were eligible for the study. Main reasons for exclusion were length of stay <1day (19.1%) and sustained coma (4.1%). CAM-ICU compliance was mean (SD) 82±16% and inter-rater reliability 0.87±0.17. The median delirium incidence was 22.5% (IQR 12.8%-36.6%). Although the incidence of all ten predictors differed significantly between centers, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve of the 8 participating centers remained good: 0.77 (95%CI:0.74-0.79). The linear predictor and intercept of the prediction rule were adjusted and resulted in improved recalibration of the PRE-DELIRIC model.
Conclusions:In this multinational study we recalibrated the PRE-DELIRIC-model. Despite differences in the incidence of predictors between the centers in the different countries the performance of the PRE-DELIRICmodel remained good. Following validation of the PRE-DELIRIC model it may facilitate implementation of strategies to prevent delirium and aid improvements in delirium management of ICU patients.4