Effect of projected climate change on the hydrological regime of the Yangtze River Basin, China

Yu, Zhongbo; Gu, Huanghe; Wang, Jigan; Xia, Jun; Lu, Baohong

doi:10.1007/s00477-017-1391-2

Cited by 49 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 83 publications

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“…In particular, the larger increase in maximum 1-day streamflow (+14.24% on average) compared to the 5-day and 15-day water volumes (+12.79% and +10.24%) indicated that this projected extreme streamflow increase would be primarily due to intense short-period rainfall events. However, these increments were slightly higher than the values that have been reported by our previous study, while an increase of 3.64-10.54% is based on the ensemble mean of 27 CMIP5 GCMs [71]. In addition, the increased trends were identified in future precipitation and streamflow projections, although most of these increases were not statistically significant.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 82%

“…Most of the parameters can be derived from satellite observations or geological surveys, whereas others are typically calibrated to streamflow observations. The model had been previously calibrated for the Yangtze River basin, and these same settings were used in this study [56,71]. Briefly summarized, an automated parameter estimation procedure based on the shuffled complex evolution algorithm was performed in each sub-basin [72], and the percent bias (PBIAS), the coefficient of determination (R 2 ), and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE) [73] between the modeled streamflow and observed value was used to describe the prediction capabilities.…”

Section: Model Calibration and Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Projected Changes in Hydrological Extremes in the Yangtze River Basin with an Ensemble of Regional Climate Simulations

Yang

et al. 2018

Water

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This paper estimates the likely impacts of future climate change on streamflow, especially the hydrological extremes over the Yangtze River basin. The future climate was projected by the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment in East Asia (CORDEX-EA) initiative for the periods 2020–2049 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. The bias corrected outputs from five regional climate models (RCMs) were used in conjunction with the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrological model to produce hydrological projections. For the future climate of the Yangtze River basin, outputs from an ensemble of RCMs indicate that the annual mean temperature will increase for 2020–2049 by 1.81 °C for RCP4.5 and by 2.26 °C for RCP8.5. The annual mean precipitation is projected to increase by 3.62% under RCP4.5 and 7.65% under RCP8.5. Overall, increases in precipitation are amplified in streamflow, and the change in streamflow also shows significant temporal and spatial variations and large divergence between regional climate models. At the same time, the maximum streamflow in different durations are also projected to increase at three mainstream gauging stations based on flood frequency analysis. In particular, larger increases in maximum 1-day streamflow (+14.24% on average) compared to 5-day and 15-day water volumes (+12.79% and +10.24%) indicate that this projected extreme streamflow increase would be primarily due to intense short-period rainfall events. It is necessary to consider the impacts of climate change in future water resource management.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 82%

Section: Model Calibration and Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Changes in Hydrological Extremes in the Yangtze River Basin with an Ensemble of Regional Climate Simulations

Yang

et al. 2018

Water

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“…The rainy seasons of EASM, including the pre-summer rainy season over southern China, mei-yu (in China), normally occurs during the stationary periods, which are imbedded in the northward advance of the summer monsoon. The anomaly of EASM could cause floods and droughts, which are crucial to the livelihoods of more than one billion people (Gu et al, 2015a;Webster et al, 1998;Yu et al, 2018). However, the manner in which climatological rainfall and interannual variation of EASM can be reliably reproduced remains a challenge because of the complex topography and model limitations.…”

Section: H Gu Et Al: Ensemble Future Climate Projections and Uncertmentioning

confidence: 99%

High-resolution ensemble projections and uncertainty assessment of regional climate change over China in CORDEX East Asia

Yang

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. An ensemble simulation of five regional climate models (RCMs) from the coordinated regional downscaling experiment in East Asia is evaluated and used to project future regional climate change in China. The influences of model uncertainty and internal variability on projections are also identified. The RCMs simulate the historical climate and future climate projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP4.5 scenario. The simulations for five subregions in China, including northeastern China, northern China, southern China, northwestern China, and the Tibetan Plateau, are highlighted in this study. Results show that (1) RCMs can capture the climatology, annual cycle, and interannual variability of temperature and precipitation and that a multimodel ensemble (MME) outperforms that of an individual RCM. The added values for RCMs are confirmed by comparing the performance of RCMs and global climate models (GCMs) in reproducing annual and seasonal mean precipitation and temperature during the historical period. (2) For future (2030)(2031)(2032)(2033)(2034)(2035)(2036)(2037)(2038)(2039)(2040)(2041)(2042)(2043)(2044)(2045)(2046)(2047)(2048)(2049) climate, the MME indicates consistent warming trends at around 1 • C in the entire domain and projects pronounced warming in northern and western China. The annual precipitation is likely to increase in most of the simulation region, except for the Tibetan Plateau. (3) Generally, the future projected change in annual and seasonal mean temperature by RCMs is nearly consistent with the results from the driving GCM. However, changes in annual and seasonal mean precipitation exhibit significant inter-RCM differences and possess a larger magnitude and variability than the driving GCM. Even opposite signals for projected changes in average precipitation between the MME and the driving GCM are shown over southern China, northeastern China, and the Tibetan Plateau. (4) The uncertainty in projected mean temperature mainly arises from the internal variability over northern and southern China and the model uncertainty over the other three subregions. For the projected mean precipitation, the dominant uncertainty source is the internal variability over most regions, except for the Tibetan Plateau, where the model uncertainty reaches up to 60 %. Moreover, the model uncertainty increases with prediction lead time across all subregions.

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“…The increased variability of rainfall means more intense short-period rainfall events and maximum stream flows. This can increase flooding events (Wang & Zhang, 2011;Gu et al, 2015;Yu et al, 2018;Gu et al, 2018).…”

Section: Impacts On the Yangtze River Hydrologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Dark and light grey shaded areas indicate where 50% and 80% of model runs fall, respectively. The figure is edited from Yu et al (2018).…”

Section: Impacts On the Yangtze River Hydrologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Projections of future climate for Europe, Uruguay and China with implications on forestry

Venäläinen¹,

Ruosteenoja²,

Lehtonen³

2019

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Toimeksiantaja UPM-Kymmene Oy NimekeMalliennusteisiin perustuva tulevaisuuden ilmasto Euroopassa, Uruguayssa ja Kiinassa sekä ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutuksia metsätalouteen. Tiivistelmä Raportti tarkastelee odotettavissa olevia ilmastonmuutoksia neljällä UPM-Kymmenen toiminnan kannalta keskeisellä maantieteellisellä alueella: Suomessa, Etelä-Saksassa, Uruguayssa ja Itä-Kiinassa. Lisäksi arvioidaan ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutuksia metsien kasvuun ja käsitellään muutoksesta mahdollisesti seuraavia kasvua häiritseviä tekijöitä.Ilmastonmuutosarviot perustuvat 28 maailmanlaajuisella ilmastomallilla tehtyihin ajoihin. Arvioitten pohjana käytetään RCP4.5skenaariota, joka vastaa kohtalaisen voimakkaita kasvihuonekaasujen päästöjä. Ensisijaisesti tarkastellaan vuosisadan puolivälin (jakso 2040-2069) ilmastoa verrattuna 1900-luvun lopun (jakso 1971-2000) tilanteeseen.Kaikki tutkimuksessa mukana olleet mallit ennustavat lämpötilojen nousevan tulevaisuudessa, joskin lämpiämisen voimakkuus vaihtelee aika paljon mallista toiseen. Monille muille ilmastosuureille, kuten sademäärälle ja auringonsäteilylle, muutoksen suuntaa ei sen sijaan aina voida varmuudella päätellä. Tarkastelluilla alueilla sademäärä kuitenkin pääsääntöisesti kasvaa. Poikkeuksia ovat Etelä-Saksa kesällä ja alkusyksystä, Itä-Kiina loppusyksystä sekä Uruguay eteläisen pallonpuoliskon talvella ja keväällä, joissa sademäärä vähenee. Sielläkin missä sademäärät jonkin verran kasvavat, korkeamman lämpötilan aiheuttama haihdunnan voimistuminen lisää kuivuuden riskiä. Joissakin tapauksissa sekä kovat sateet että kuivat jaksot yleistyvät.Euroopan metsävarat ovat viime vuosikymmeninä kasvaneet. Erityisesti Pohjois-Euroopan metsät ovat hyötyneet lämpimämmästä ilmastosta ja hiilidioksidipitoisuuden kohoamisesta. Tulevina vuosikymmeninä tämä kehitys ei välttämättä jatku ainakaan entistä tahtia, sillä metsien kasvua saattavat häiritä mm. kuivuus, lisääntyvät metsäpalot ja tuhohyönteisten aiheuttamat vahingot. Pyrittäessä hillitsemään ilmastonmuutosta metsien merkitys hiilen nieluina on tärkeä. Sen tähden mielipiteenvaihto metsien tehokkaasta mutta samalla kestävästä käytöstä jatkunee vilkkaana.Jos ihmiskunnan pyrkimykset hillitä ilmaston muuttumista osoittautuvat tehokkaiksi, on mahdollista, että tulevat muutokset jäävät selvästi pienemmiksi ja tapahtuvat hitaammin kuin mitä tässä raportissa tarkastellun RCP4.5-skenaarion perusteella olisi odotettavissa. Tämä kuitenkin edellyttää maailmanlaajuisten kasvihuonekaasupäästöjen nopeaa leikkaamista. Hillinnän epäonnistuminen puolestaan johtaisi tässä arvioitua vakavampiin seurauksiin. Julkaisijayksikkö Sään ja ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutustutkimus Luokitus (UDK) 551. 515.9, 551.556.1, 551.577.62, 551.583, 632.11, 632.92 Asiasanat ilmasto, ilmastonmuutos, ilmastoskenaariot, ilmastonmuutokseen sopeutuminen, ilmastonmuutoksen aiheuttamat riskit, metsätalous ISSN ja avainnimike 0782-6079 Raportteja ISBN 978-952-336-084-6 (nide) 978-952-336-085-3 (pdf) Kieli englanti, (tiivistelmä myös ruotsiksi ja suomeksi) Sivumäärä 67 DOI https://doi.org...

show abstract

Effect of projected climate change on the hydrological regime of the Yangtze River Basin, China

Cited by 49 publications

References 83 publications

Projected Changes in Hydrological Extremes in the Yangtze River Basin with an Ensemble of Regional Climate Simulations

Projected Changes in Hydrological Extremes in the Yangtze River Basin with an Ensemble of Regional Climate Simulations

High-resolution ensemble projections and uncertainty assessment of regional climate change over China in CORDEX East Asia

Projections of future climate for Europe, Uruguay and China with implications on forestry

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