Effect of load profile uncertainty on the optimum sizing of off-grid PV systems for rural electrification

Mandelli, Stefano; Brivio, Claudio; Colombo, Emanuela; Merlo, Marco

doi:10.1016/j.seta.2016.09.010

Cited by 63 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Several studies on the intersection of PV deployment and poverty alleviation have focused on the role of PV in providing rural electricity access in locations that do not have access to electric grids or in a few developed countries [9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19] . Moreover, Mandelli et al 20 , Chaurey and Kandpal 21 , Rodríguez et al 22 , and Rosas-Flores et al 23 provide reviews of the deployment of PV for rural electrification.…”

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confidence: 99%

Solar photovoltaic interventions have reduced rural poverty in China

Zhang

Qiu

et al. 2020

Nat Commun

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Since 2013, China has implemented a large-scale initiative to systematically deploy solar photovoltaic (PV) projects to alleviate poverty in rural areas. To provide new understanding of China's targeted poverty alleviation strategy, we use a panel dataset of 211 pilot counties that received targeted PV investments from 2013 to 2016, and find that the PV poverty alleviation pilot policy increases per-capita disposable income in a county by approximately 7%-8%. The effect of PV investment is positive and significant in the year of policy implementation and the effect is more than twice as high in the subsequent two to three years. The PV poverty alleviation effect is stronger in poorer regions, particularly in Eastern China. Our results are robust to alternative specifications and variable definitions. We propose several policy recommendations to sustain progress in China's efforts to deploy PV for poverty alleviation.

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confidence: 99%

Solar photovoltaic interventions have reduced rural poverty in China

Zhang

Qiu

et al. 2020

Nat Commun

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“…The effects of uncertainties in load profiles have in fact a huge impact on the sizing, cost and reliability of off-grid systems, as discussed in [21], where the authors argue that the estimation of average daily load as the starting point for intuitive design approach is not satisfactory, and that alternatives for improving such estimates is not available. This issue has been investigated in detail also in [57], but the authors did not tackle the uncertainties in primary data acquisition and used a proxy method for getting "typical" classes of users based on their observations on already electrified peri-urban areas of Uganda. The same authors proposed a method to formulate load profiles for expected new customers in off-grid rural areas without prior access to electricity [44].…”

Section: Mini-grid Sensitivity To Inputs and Assumptions Coming From mentioning

confidence: 99%

Methodology for the Energy Need Assessment to Effectively Design and Deploy Mini-Grids for Rural Electrification

et al. 2019

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In order to successfully deploy a large number of decentralized energy systems in developing countries, it is necessary to standardize effective methodologies and procedures to develop off-grid/mini-grid systems. Considering that the energy need assessment provides inputs and assumptions used in business modelling and mini-grid design, the accuracy of its results directly affects the technical and financial feasibility studies. Thus, the approach for applying a proven methodology for the energy need assessment of rural communities is aimed at obtaining reliable input data for the mini-grid development. This helps in reducing both the financial challenges by mitigating the uncertainties in electricity demand and the technical challenges by contributing to adequately size off-grid power generation systems, with a view to boost toward a common overall objective of mini-grid’s optimization methods and tools. Hence, taking into consideration that target communities differ in terms of needs and context conditions, the proposed paper describes an inclusive methodology that can be adapted case-by-case. It provides an effective applied solution the lack of proven guidelines from project developers or literature, giving priority to data collection methods able to achieve a large sample representative of the market, with high accuracy in estimating the energy consumptions from electricity substitutes.

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“…As described in reference [35], the rainflow algorithm is a widely used model [36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45], usually applied to evaluate battery lifetime when subjected to complex cycles, as in the case of the present investigation. Even if it is not accurate, generally providing an overestimated lifespan evaluation, this strategy was here implemented since the authors were interested in a lifespan comparison among several storage configurations rather than to achieve an absolute estimation of battery useful life.…”

Section: Rainflow Cycle Counting Algorithmmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Hybridization of Energy Storage Technologies Can Provide Additional Flexibility and Competitiveness to Microgrids in the Context of Developing Countries

et al. 2019

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Hybrid microgrids, integrating renewable energy sources and energy storage, are key in extending energy access in the remote areas of developing countries, in a sustainably way and in providing a good quality of service. Their extensive development faces a financing gap, having a high capital expenditure (CAPEX) also due to high storage costs. In the present work, a case study of a Ugandan microgrid was used to compare various battery technologies employed on their own and in a combination with a flywheel, in terms of their durability and the overall levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of the plant. Simulations show how hybrid storage configurations result in a lower LCOE for the current load profile of the microgrid and even more so for two reference residential and industrial load scenarios, suggesting this would remain the best solution even accounting for future socio-economic development. The resulting LCOE for hybrid storage configurations is lower than the average values reported for microgrid projects and represents a promising solution to speed up the development of such electrification initiatives.

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Effect of load profile uncertainty on the optimum sizing of off-grid PV systems for rural electrification

Cited by 63 publications

References 45 publications

Solar photovoltaic interventions have reduced rural poverty in China

Solar photovoltaic interventions have reduced rural poverty in China

Methodology for the Energy Need Assessment to Effectively Design and Deploy Mini-Grids for Rural Electrification

How Hybridization of Energy Storage Technologies Can Provide Additional Flexibility and Competitiveness to Microgrids in the Context of Developing Countries

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