Effect of Hedging-Integrated Rule Curves on the Performance of the Pong Reservoir (India) During Scenario-Neutral Climate Change Perturbations

Adeloye, Adebayo J.; Soundharajan, B.; Ojha, C. S. P.; Remesan, Renji

doi:10.1007/s11269-015-1171-z

Cited by 39 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 33 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Recent research in water resources (Srinivasan 2014; Adeloye et al 2016;Soundharajan et al 2016;) dependent on the CFSR dataset. For example, confirmed the CFSR data reliability by applying the dataset to evaluate the potential effect of evapotranspiration formulations at different elevations and climatic conditions on the RDI index.…”

Section: Climate Forecasting System Reanalysis Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal Hydrologic Alterations Coupled with Climate Variability and Drought for Transboundary River Basins

Mohammed

Scholz

Zounemat‐Kermani

2017

Water Resour Manage

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climate change (CC) and drought episode impacts linked with anthropogenic pressure have become an increasing concern for policy makers and water resources managers. The current research presents a comprehensive methodology but simple approach for predicting the annual streamflow alteration based on drought indices and hydrological alteration indicators. This has been achieved depending on the evaluation of drought severity and CC impacts during the human intervention periods to separate the influence of climatic abnormality and measure the hydrologic deviations as a result of streamflow regulation configurations. As a representative case study, the Lesser Zab River Basin in northern Iraq has been chosen. In order to analyse the natural flow regime, 34 hydrological years of streamflow prior to the main dam construction were assessed. The Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) method has been applied to quantify the hydrological alterations of various flow characteristics. In addition, an easy approach for hydrological drought prediction in relatively small basins grounded on meteorological parameters during the early months of the hydrological year has been presented. The prediction was accomplished by implementing the one-dimensional drought examination and the reconnaissance drought index (RDI) for evaluating the severity of meteorological drought. The proposed methodology is founded on linear regression relations connecting the RDI of 3, 6, and 12 months and the streamflow drought index (SDI). The results are critical for circumstances where an early exploration of meteorological drought is obtainable. Outcomes assist water resources Water Resour Manage

show abstract

Section: Climate Forecasting System Reanalysis Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal Hydrologic Alterations Coupled with Climate Variability and Drought for Transboundary River Basins

Mohammed

Scholz

Zounemat‐Kermani

2017

Water Resour Manage

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In general, the vulnerability is decreasing as expected when the precipitation and temperature are increasing. However, although the assessed vulnerability of the Pong reservoir is about 66 % based on single run of the runoff record as alluded to earlier (see Adeloye et al, 2015), the vulnerability could actually be either as low as 33 % or as high as 94 % if the stochastic properties of the runoff are taken into account. In general, vulnerability (or single period deficits) above 25 % is not recommended because of the distress it can cause to water users (Fiering, 1982).…”

Section: Uncertainty In Reservoir Performancementioning

confidence: 93%

“…Genetic algorithms (GA) optimised rule curves derived for the Pong reservoir by Adeloye et al (2015) were used. Following simulation, the performance was summarised using (McMahon and Adeloye, 2005): Reliability (time-based (R t ) and volume-based (R v )):…”

Section: Reservoir Behaviour Simulation and Performance Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In general, the model performed reasonably well with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency indices during the calibration and validation were respectively 0.88 and 0.78. The complete details about the performance of the model during calibration and validation are presented by Adeloye et al (2015). The calibrated HYSIM model was used to assess impacts of delta changes in the precipitation and temperature on the runoff.…”

Section: Hysim Rainfall-runoff Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These, respectively, represent overdesign and under-design situations relative to the existing capacity at the Pong reservoir. The implication of under design is that the reservoir will fail frequently to meet the demand, -5% T0_P0% T0_P+5% T1_P-5% T1_P0% T1_P+5% T2_P-5% T2_P0% T2_P+5% R t (%) 75 80 85 90 95 100 T0_P-5% T0_P0% T0_P+5% T1_P-5% T1_P0% T1_P+5% T2_P-5% T2_P0% as recently found by Adeloye et al (2015), where the simulated vulnerability of the Pong reservoir was shown to be as high as 66 %. The effect of climate change on the capacity estimates broadly follows the effect on runoff.…”

Section: Uncertainty In Capacity Estimatesmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Quantifying the uncertainties of climate change effects on the storage-yield and performance characteristics of the Pong multi-purpose reservoir, India

2015

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Climate change is predicted to affect water resources infrastructure due to its effect on rainfall, temperature and evapotranspiration. However, there are huge uncertainties on both the magnitude and direction of these effects. The Pong reservoir on the Beas River in northern India serves irrigation and hydropower needs. The hydrology of the catchment is highly influenced by Himalayan seasonal snow and glaciers, and Monsoon rainfall; the changing pattern of the latter and the predicted disappearance of the former will have profound effects on the performance of the reservoir. This study employed a Monte-Carlo simulation approach to characterise the uncertainties in the future storage requirements and performance of the reservoir. Using a calibrated rainfall-runoff (R-R) model, the baseline runoff scenario was first simulated. The R-R inputs (rainfall and temperature) were then perturbed using plausible delta-changes to produce simulated climate change runoff scenarios. Stochastic models of the runoff were developed and used to generate ensembles of both the current and climatechange perturbed future scenarios. The resulting runoff ensembles were used to simulate the behaviour of the reservoir and determine "populations" of reservoir storage capacity and performance characteristics. Comparing these parameters between the current and the perturbed provided the population of climate change effects which was then analysed to determine the uncertainties. The results show that contrary to the usual practice of using single records, there is wide variability in the assessed impacts. This variability or uncertainty will, no doubt, complicate the development of climate change adaptation measures; however, knowledge of its sheer magnitude as demonstrated in this study will help in the formulation of appropriate policy and technical interventions for sustaining and possibly enhancing water security for irrigation and other uses served by Pong reservoir.

show abstract

Adjustment of measurement errors to reconcile precipitation distribution in the high‐altitude Indus basin

Dahri

Moors

Ludwig

et al. 2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Precipitation in the high-altitude Indus basin governs its renewable water resources affecting water, energy and food securities. However, reliable estimates of precipitation climatology and associated hydrological implications are seriously constrained by the quality of observed data. As such, quantitative and spatiotemporal distributions of precipitation estimated by previous studies in the study area are highly contrasting and uncertain. Generally, scarcity and biased distribution of observed data at the higher altitudes and measurement errors in precipitation observations are the primary causes of such uncertainties. In this study, we integrated precipitation data of 307 observatories with the net snow accumulations estimated through mass balance studies at 21 major glacier zones. Precipitation observations are adjusted for measurement errors using the guidelines and standard methods developed under the WMO's international precipitation measurement intercomparisons, while net snow accumulations are adjusted for ablation losses using standard ablation gradients. The results showed more significant increases in precipitation of individual stations located at higher altitudes during winter months, which are consistent with previous studies. Spatial interpolation of unadjusted precipitation observations and net snow accumulations at monthly scale indicated significant improvements in the quantitative and spatio-temporal distribution of precipitation over the unadjusted case and previous studies. Adjustment of river flows revealed only a marginal contribution of net glacier mass balance to river flows. The adjusted precipitation estimates are more consistent with the corresponding adjusted river flows. The study recognized that the higher river flows than the corresponding precipitation estimates by the previous studies are mainly due to underestimated precipitation. The results can be useful for water balance studies and bias correction of gridded precipitation products for the study area.

show abstract

Effect of Hedging-Integrated Rule Curves on the Performance of the Pong Reservoir (India) During Scenario-Neutral Climate Change Perturbations

Cited by 39 publications

References 33 publications

Temporal Hydrologic Alterations Coupled with Climate Variability and Drought for Transboundary River Basins

Temporal Hydrologic Alterations Coupled with Climate Variability and Drought for Transboundary River Basins

Quantifying the uncertainties of climate change effects on the storage-yield and performance characteristics of the Pong multi-purpose reservoir, India

Adjustment of measurement errors to reconcile precipitation distribution in the high‐altitude Indus basin

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About