Effect of Heavy Rainfall Events on the Dry Matter Yield Trend of Whole Crop Maize (Zea mays L.)

Abstract

The objective of this study was to detect the historical dry matter yield (DMY) trend and to evaluate the effects of heavy rainfall events on the observed DMY trend of whole crop maize (WCM, Zea mays L.) using time-series analysis in Suwon, Republic of Korea. The climatic variables corresponding to the seeding to harvesting period, including the growing degree days, mean temperature, etc., of WCM along with the DMY data (n = 543) during 1982–2011, were used in the analysis. The DMY trend was detected using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with the explanatory variables (ARIMAX) form of time-series trend analysis. The optimal DMY model was found to be ARIMAX (1, 1, 1), indicating that the DMY trend follows the mean DMY of the preceding one year and the residual of the preceding one year with an integration level of 1. Furthermore, the SHGDD and SHHR were determined to be the main variables responsible for the observed trend in the DMY of WCM. During heavy rainfall events, the DMY was found to be decreasing by 4745.27 kg/ha (p < 0.01). Our analysis also revealed that both the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall events have been increasing since 2005. The forecasted DMY indicates the potential decrease, which is expected to be 11,607 kg/ha by 2045. This study provided us evidence for the correlation between the DMY and heavy rainfall events that opens the way to provide solutions for challenges that summer forage crops face in the Republic of Korea.

Impact of abnormal climate events on the production of Italian ryegrass as a season in Korea

“…percent of the annual PA [33], and the Korean rainfall concentrated in the summer monsoon season will likely become even more severe, increasing the chances of a long dry season in spring [23]. As to the severity of the spring drought, Lee (2015) reported that if there was no rain for more than two weeks, concerns about agricultural drought were particularly high.…”

“…identify the trends in yields and climatic factors as a form of climate change research in the Republic of Korea [21][22][23]. The drawback of performing this study using historical climate information was that it could not reflect abnormal climate conditions because only normal climates conditions because only normal climate conditions were taken into account.…”

“…As part of a complex natural eco-system, the information on climate and soil factors was used to generate the structure of causality contains their direct and/or indirect pathways for forage crops, such as IRG [ 17 , 18 ], forage barley [ 19 ] and forage rye [ 20 ]. Climate data were also used to identify the trends in yields and climatic factors as a form of climate change research in Korea [ 21 – 23 ]. The drawback of performing this study using historical climate information was that it could not reflect abnormal climate conditions because only normal climates conditions because only normal climate conditions were taken into account.…”

Prediction of Human Brucellosis in China Based on Temperature and NDVI

“…Remote sensing has been applied in many fields as it can estimate many of these factors [16,37,38,39,40,41,42,43]. Although ARIMAX has been used to study air pollution [44], corn yields [45], and to predict various illnesses [46], no one has used it to study brucellosis in recent years. In addition, the use of ARIMAX models helps to explore the relationship between time series and other factors.…”

Yield Prediction Modeling for Sorghum–Sudangrass Hybrid Based on Climatic, Soil, and Cultivar Data in the Republic of Korea

“…Similar studies were also carried out in economic plants, such as Chinese cabbage [21] and apple [22], in this region. For forage crops cultivated in this region, yield modeling studies based on climatic data were carried out on whole crop rye [23], Italian ryegrass [24], and whole crop maize [25]. However, no research expounding climatic, soil, and cultivar data-based yield modeling of forage crops cultivated in the southern area of the Korean Peninsula was reported.…”