Effect of early application of social distancing interventions on COVID-19 mortality over the first pandemic wave: An analysis of longitudinal data from 37 countries

Abstract

Covid-19 Sars-cov-2 2019-ncov Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 s u m m a r y Objectives: To estimate the effect of early application of social distancing interventions on Covid-19 cumulative mortality during the first pandemic wave. Methods: Ecological longitudinal study using multivariable negative binomial regression for panel data. Daily numbers of Covid-19 cases and deaths, and data on social distancing interventions, for the 37 member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) were analysed. Results: Covid-19 cumulative mortality over the first pandemic wave varied widely across countries (range, 4.16 to 855 deaths per million population). On average, one-day delay in application of mass gatherings ban was associated with an adjusted increase in Covid-19 cumulative mortality by 6.97% (95% CI, 3.45 to 10.5), whilst a one-day delay in school closures was associated with an increase of 4.37% (95% CI, 1.58 to 7.17) over the study period. We estimated that if each country had enacted both interventions one week earlier, Covid-19 cumulative mortality could have been reduced by an average of 44.1% (95% CI, 20.2 to 67.9). Conclusions: Early application of mass gatherings ban and school closures in outbreak epicentres was associated with an important reduction in Covid-19 cumulative mortality during the first pandemic wave. These findings may support policy decision making.

Mitigation Policies and COVID-19–Associated Mortality — 37 European Countries, January 23–June 30, 2020

“…Other research has highlighted the importance of the timing of control measures in mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic. One study of the 37 Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development member countries found that implementing school closures and gathering bans 1 week earlier could have reduced mortality by 44% ( 7 ). A modeling study highlighted a “window of opportunity” for implementing social distancing directives, suggesting that even small delays could lead to much higher incidence rates ( 8 ).…”

SARS-CoV-2 Molecular Transmission Clusters and Containment Measures in Ten European Regions during the First Pandemic Wave

“…Previous studies regarding the transmission dynamics and clinical characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 infection in children have suggested that children may become a significant spreader at the explosion stage of the outbreak [ 66 ], while at the same time the risk of diffusion of infection from child to child is low and even the transmission from a child to an adult is uncommon [ 67 , 68 , 69 ]. Moreover, as Piovani et al suggest [ 70 ], combination of mass gathering bans and school closures is associated with the reduction in COVID-19 mortality. In this study, we sought to investigate the effect of school closure in MTCs patterns.…”

Safety evaluation of a medical congress held during the COVID-19 pandemic – a prospective cohort

“…During the COVID-19 pandemic many congresses are being cancelled to avoid gatherings of hundreds or thousands of attendees in a single venue [1]. These decisions might have signi cant consequences as medical education is being disrupted; also economic damage to scienti c societies and industry partners has to be expected.…”