Effect of daily human movement on some characteristics of dengue dynamics

Abstract

Human movement is a key factor in infectious diseases spread such as dengue. Here, we explore a mathematical modeling approach based on a system of ordinary differential equations to study the effect of human movement on characteristics of dengue dynamics such as the existence of endemic equilibria, and the start, duration, and amplitude of the outbreak. The model considers that every day is divided into two periods: high-activity and low-activity. Periodic human movement between patches occurs in discrete times. Based on numerical simulations, we show unexpected scenarios such as the disease extinction in regions where the local basic reproductive number is greater than 1. In the same way, we obtain scenarios where outbreaks appear despite the fact that the local basic reproductive numbers in these regions are less than 1 and the outbreak size depends on the length of high-activity and low-activity periods.

Effect of daily periodic human movement on dengue dynamics: the case of the 2010 outbreak in Hermosillo, Mexico

“…We consider a previous two-patch model without vital dynamics in humans and with human daily movement, where movement takes place at periodic discrete times [19]. Here the interval [ t k , t k +1 ) represent the k th day and is divided into two time periods: low-activity period [ t k , t k + T l ) and high-activity period [ t k + T l , t k +1 ), where T l represents the fraction of the k th day of low activity and T l ∈ (0, 1).…”

“…Similar to [14], we are interested in studying the daily human mobility between two regions from an urban area, to explore how the transmission rates and the local basic reproductive numbers may vary depending on the time period of daily local stay of a population within their own region. For this, we use a two-patch mathematical model under a little explored approach [15, 19], and data from the 2010 dengue outbreak in Hermosillo, Mexico. We use the ideas of a previous work [19] and applied them to a scenario where the commutation between patches emerges naturally.…”

“…For this, we use a two-patch mathematical model under a little explored approach [15, 19], and data from the 2010 dengue outbreak in Hermosillo, Mexico. We use the ideas of a previous work [19] and applied them to a scenario where the commutation between patches emerges naturally. To define each of two patch of the model, we divide the city of Hermosillo into two regions, which was derived from a preliminary cluster analysis.…”

Effect of daily periodic human movement on dengue dynamics: The case of the 2010 outbreak in Hermosillo, Mexico

“…We consider a previous two-patch model without vital dynamics in humans and with human daily movement, where movement takes place at periodic discrete times [19]. Here the interval [t k , t k+1 ) represent the kth day and is divided into two time periods: low-activity period [t k , t k +T l ) and high-activity period [t k +T l , t k+1 ), where T l represents the fraction of the kth day of low activity and T l ∈ (0, 1).…”

“…For this, we use a two-patch mathematical model under a little explored approach [15,19], and data from the 2010 dengue outbreak in Hermosillo, Mexico. We use the ideas of a previous work [19] and applied them to a scenario where the commutation between patches emerges naturally.…”