Effect of climate variability on the yield of crops in Ondo State, Nigeria

Abstract

Climate change influences crop yield vis-à-vis crop production to a greater extent in countries likeNigeria where agriculture depends largely on natural circumstances. This study assesses the effect of observed climatic variables (rainfall, temperature and relative humidity) on yield of major crops which are divided into two groups, tuber crops (cassava and yam) and fruits (pepper and tomatoes) in Ondo State Nigeria. Crop yield and climatic data were obtained from Ondo State Agricultural Development Project (ADP), Ondo State for a period of nineteen years (1996 -2014). These data were analyzed using SPSS 16.0 and Microsoft Excel in order to evaluate the effect of climate on the yield on reference crops in Ondo State, Nigeria. Multiple regression, trend analysis, and ANOVA techniques were used to analyze the data. The study showed that the rainfall range for the nineteen years was 1013.08 mm; temperature range was 5.14°C and relative humidity range was 11.55%. Variations in rainfall, temperature and relative humidity were found to have effects on cassava, yam, pepper and tomatoes yield by 20.7, 18.6, 26.8 and 15.5%, respectively. It was then recommended among other things that the extension agents should work with the Nigeria meteorological agency to advice farmers in the State in order to use cropping calendar in accordance with the weather forecast since temperature, rainfall and relative humidity had little effect on cassava, yam, pepper and tomatoes yield in Ondo State.

Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change on the Yield of Crops

“…From the four (4) scenarios produced using the different climate models, it was observed that in some regions of the country, Nigeria, an increase in crop yield would be experienced as the years go by, while in the other areas, a decrease will be experienced. Studies from different parts of the globe also painted a similar pattern to what was reported above, with [23] postulating a negative impact on crop production due to climate change while [36] reported both an increase and decrease in crop yield as noted in this particular work.…”

“…In using the climate data from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the yield of Cassava showed a significant decrease in Abia, Adamawa, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Borno, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Kaduna, Kogi, Nassarawa, Rivers Sokoto, Taraba, and Zamfara states, agreeing with [23], where climate change harmed the yield of tuber crops, while the other Nineteen states and the FCT showed a marked and significant increase in yield. [36] Showed that the impact of changing climate patterns on crops using wheat and maize as case studies with respect to two (2) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) projected both an increase and decrease in yield.…”

“…; greater agricultural outputs are projected as CO 2 levels rise and the length of the growing season lengthens [21,22]. Similar studies carried out in the Ondo State region of Nigeria through empirical evidence strongly showed that climate variability and climate change, among other factors, negatively affected primary fruit, tuber crops' outputs, and cropping acreage [23].…”

Climate Variability and Seasonal Aspects of Palm Wine Production (Raphia Spp) in Ikot Ekpene Local Government Area of Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria

“…This confirms the findings by Kirttii, Phanindra and Mishra (2010) that rainfall and temperature are the two important weather factors that affect crop productions due to their direct and indirect influences which lead to unacceptable low productions. Also, it has been observed by Obafemi and Adebolu (2018) in Ondo State, Nigeria that annual rainfall amount has a strong influence on crop yield. It is important to note however that, the significance of the climate variables in influencing production in this case could be due to the period of harvesting which in turn affects the production but these were not available.…”