Effect of Climate Change on Conifer Plant Species, Juniperus procera, and Podocarpus falcatus, in the Case of Ethiopia: Critical Review Using Time Series Data

Abstract

The Juniperus procera and Podocarpus falcatus tree species are the only indigenous conifer plants that Ethiopia has and dominantly found in dry Afromontane forests of the country. However, dry Afromontane forests are threatened by climate change. The objective of this study is to analyze the effect of climate change on the regeneration and dominance of the J. procera and P. falcatus tree species in Ethiopia. The regeneration status classes and importance value index score classes analysis was done along the time series. This study revealed that J. procera had a fair regeneration status, while P. falcatus exhibited an alternate regeneration status between fair and good. Not regenerating regeneration status was recorded in 2006–2010 and 2016–2020 time series for J. procera, while in 2011–2015 and 2021–2023 for P. falcatus. Regarding the importance value index score of the species, J. procera had the top three throughout the all-time series except in 2011–2015 which had the lowest importance value index score, whereas P. falcatus had the top three importance value index score status from 2016 to 2023 time series. Safeguarding these conifer species from the negative effects of climate change relies on the attention of all responsible bodies.